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No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.323194839658814, "race_score": 7.327478908660298, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 2, "uninformative_place_high": 12, "training_log_adjustment": -0.002154931931148918, "workout_log_adjustment": -0.0021291370703353605, "workout_inputs": [ { "date": "2026-10-13", "url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20575832879", "block": { "rep_distances_m": [ 3218.688 ], "rep_times_s": [ 630 ], "effort": "threshold (athlete-reported)", "recovery_s": null, "repetitions": 1, "distance_m": 3218.688, "duration_s": null, "terrain": null }, "log_change": 0.0007417258593292787, "recovery_known": false, "interpretation": "Effort/recovery heuristic; not a continuous race or causal fitness estimate." }, { "date": "2026-10-13", "url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20575832879", "block": { "rep_distances_m": [ 1609.344, 1609.344 ], "rep_times_s": [ 288, 277 ], "effort": "XC", "recovery_s": null, "repetitions": 2, "distance_m": 1609.344, "duration_s": null, "terrain": null }, "log_change": -0.005, "recovery_known": false, "interpretation": "Effort/recovery heuristic; 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Empty calendar bins do not establish rest or injury.", "window_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "capture_fresh": true, "calendar_capture_complete": true, "collection_status": "fresh" }, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: BC Athletics Cross Country Championships on 2026-10-17 (8 km, 27:08.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Visible running averages 65.2 km/week in the current 28-day window. The complete captured window permits a small logged-volume trend adjustment." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6607", "name": "Justin Schuler", "place": 52, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.13, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 39.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8052", "name": "Mitchell Klassen", "place": 53, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.11, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13361", "name": "Calvin Brain", "place": 55, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.11, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 32.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8073", "name": "Cai Collingwood", "place": 56, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.17, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 18.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.424003963429675, "race_score": 7.425767428806998, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 31, "uninformative_place_high": 80, "training_log_adjustment": -0.00176346537732377, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13371", "key": "maximilien|holmes", "name": "Max Holmes", "team_id": "ubc", "team": "University of British Columbia", "team_short": "UBC", "profile_url": "https://gothunderbirds.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=13371", "roster_url": "https://gothunderbirds.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 14, "team_selection_order": 14, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 66, "place_low": 40, "place_high": 85, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/bcxcchamp/Senior", "date": "2026-10-17", "race": "BC Athletics Cross Country Championships", "event": "Senior", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 10.0, "time_s": 2034.0, "name_raw": "HOLMES, Max", "team": "VANCOUVER THUNDERBIRDS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/Senior", "venue": "Arbutus Meadows Farm, Nanoose Bay, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 6 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; 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not a calibrated probability.", "strava_id": "49202812", "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/49202812", "basis": { "display_name": "Max Holmes", "location": " Burnaby , BC", "clubs": [], "bio": { "owner_id": "49202812", "scope": "profile-bio", "text": "vanvouver t birds" } }, "alternatives": [], "selection_rule": "Explicit corresponding XC/track club or bio, then matching locale, then visible running history; no selection by forecast error." }, "capture_complete": false, "recent28_km": null, "previous56_km": null, "logged_weekly_km28": null, "run_days28": null, "runs28": null, "longest28_km": null, "latest_visible_run": null, "weeks": [ { "start": "2026-09-14", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-21", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-09-21", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-28", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-09-28", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-05", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-05", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-12", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-12", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-19", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-19", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "partial": true, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] } ], "observation_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "sessions": [], "limitation": "Visible uploaded running only; missing uploads, private activities and unrecorded training remain unknown. Empty calendar bins do not establish rest or injury.", "window_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "capture_fresh": true, "calendar_capture_complete": false, "collection_status": "fresh" }, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: BC Athletics Cross Country Championships on 2026-10-17 (10 km, 33:54.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5108", "name": "John Kwon", "place": 64, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.23, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 24.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13382", "name": "Noah Smith", "place": 65, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.09, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 15.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6836", "name": "Joshua Malenchak", "place": 67, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.17, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6603", "name": "Logan Kaban", "place": 68, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.35, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 16.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.434712079789915, "race_score": 7.434712079789915, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 40, "uninformative_place_high": 85, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13372", "key": "william|lesyna", "name": "Will Lesyna", "team_id": "ubc", "team": "University of British Columbia", "team_short": "UBC", "profile_url": "https://gothunderbirds.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=13372", "roster_url": "https://gothunderbirds.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": null, "team_selection_order": 18, "forecast_status": "unknown", "unknown_reason": "no_current_xc", "place": null, "place_low": null, "place_high": null, "win_probability": null, "basis": { "kind": "historical_pb", "mark": { "event_id": null, "date": "2026-03-28", "race": null, "event": "5000m", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 5.0, "time_s": 931.69, "name_raw": "Will Lesyna", "team": null, "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/94278/5997742/UBC_Open/Mens-5000-Meters", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 209 } }, "uncertainty": "Current fitness unknown. Shown after supported estimates without a finishing-position claim.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2025/bcxcchamp/U20", "date": "2025-10-18", "race": "BC Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1603.0, "name_raw": "LESYNA, Will", "team": "VANCOUVER THUNDERBIRDS", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/bcxcchamp/event/U20", "venue": "Vernon, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 370 } ], "personal_bests": [ { "event_id": null, "date": "2025-06-18", "race": null, "event": "1500m", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.5, "time_s": 239.43, "name_raw": "Will Lesyna", "team": null, "source_url": "https://worldathletics.org/athletes/canada/will-lesyna-15221386", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 492 }, { "event_id": null, "date": "2024-02-10", "race": null, "event": "3000m", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 3.0, "time_s": 536.74, "name_raw": "Will Lesyna", "team": null, "source_url": "https://www.athletic.net/athlete/18039290/track-and-field", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 986 }, { "event_id": null, "date": "2026-03-28", "race": null, "event": "5000m", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 5.0, "time_s": 931.69, "name_raw": "Will Lesyna", "team": null, "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/94278/5997742/UBC_Open/Mens-5000-Meters", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 209 } ], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": { "profile_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/63305034", "strava_id": "63305034", "identity_status": "verified_existing_source_review", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": [ { "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/63305034", "kind": "original_cached_profile", "profile_title": "Will Lesyna | Strava Runner Profile", "profile_canonical_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/63305034", "exact_name_match": true, "explicit_profile_affiliations": [ { "name": "UBC XC", "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/clubs/1987945" } ], "source_capture_date_claim": "2026-10-13, from dated archive and original collection note; no present-day refresh.", "source_path": "data/archive/2026-10-13-senior-men-forecast/strava_a/prof_lesyna.html", "source_sha256": "1be0105a636d83c9d5c1107b2b56cde9ed75066c77c8b702a4c4fea78af2cf60" } ], "capture_complete": true, "recent28_km": null, "previous56_km": 29.1, "logged_weekly_km28": null, "run_days28": null, "runs28": null, "longest28_km": null, "latest_visible_run": "2026-08-27", "weeks": [ { "start": "2026-09-14", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-21", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-09-21", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-28", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-09-28", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-05", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-05", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-12", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-12", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-19", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-19", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "partial": true, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] } ], "observation_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "sessions": [], "limitation": "Visible uploaded running only; missing uploads, private activities and unrecorded training remain unknown. Empty calendar bins do not establish rest or injury.", "window_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "capture_fresh": true, "calendar_capture_complete": true, "collection_status": "fresh" }, "justification": [ "Unknown current form: no qualifying current XC result.", "Historical background: 5000m on 2026-03-28 (5 km, 15:31.7). 0 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Older performances are background ability, not evidence of current fitness. A recent XC race can change this status.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "ubc:13387", "name": "Ryerson Stockton-Thomas", "place": 16, "estimated_gap_percent": null, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13365", "name": "James Doughty", "place": 19, "estimated_gap_percent": null, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.379644625023557, "race_score": 7.379644625023557, "sigma": 0.08549771689497716, "uninformative_place_low": 1, "uninformative_place_high": 91, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13374", "key": "kai|martland", "name": "Kai Martland", "team_id": "ubc", "team": "University of British Columbia", "team_short": "UBC", "profile_url": "https://gothunderbirds.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=13374", "roster_url": "https://gothunderbirds.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 7, "team_selection_order": 7, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 44, "place_low": 26, "place_high": 75, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1638.0, "name_raw": "MARTLAND, Kai", "team": "UBC", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1638.0, "name_raw": "MARTLAND, Kai", "team": "UBC", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "slt:2026/spiritrun/8K - Open", "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K - Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1646.0, "name_raw": "MARTLAND, Kai", "team": "UBC THUNDERBIRDS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 26 }, { "event_id": "alive:2025/usports/8 km - Masculin", "date": "2025-11-08", "race": "U SPORTS Cross Country Championships 2025", "event": "8 km - Masculin", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1594.0, "name_raw": "Kai Martland", "team": "UBC Thunderbirds", "source_url": null, "venue": "Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 349 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1630.6, "name_raw": "Kai Martland", "team": "Ubc Thunderbirds", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 }, { "event_id": "slt:2025/spiritrun/8K-Open", "date": "2025-09-28", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K-Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1476.0, "name_raw": "MARTLAND, Kai", "team": "UBC THUNDERBIRDS", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/spiritrun/event/8K-Open", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 390 }, { "event_id": "uofa:2024/canwestxc/8K - Men", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2024", "event": "8K - Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1774.557, "name_raw": "Kai Martland", "team": "UBC Thunderbirds", "source_url": null, "venue": "Stoney Creek Centre, Camrose, AB", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 } ], "personal_bests": [ { "event_id": null, "date": "2026-06-10", "race": null, "event": "1500m", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.5, "time_s": 231.44, "name_raw": "Kai Martland", "team": null, "source_url": "https://worldathletics.org/athletes/canada/kai-martland-15041803", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 135 }, { "event_id": null, "date": "2022-06-11", "race": null, "event": "3000m", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 3.0, "time_s": 540.36, "name_raw": "Kai Martland", "team": null, "source_url": "https://worldathletics.org/athletes/canada/kai-martland-15041803", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 1595 } ], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": { "profile_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/54685374", "strava_id": "54685374", "identity_status": "inferred_strongest_available_match", "identity_confidence": "medium-low", "identity_basis": { "status": "inferred_strongest_available_match", "confidence": "medium-low", "confidence_is": "Qualitative evidence assessment; not a calibrated probability.", "strava_id": "54685374", "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/54685374", "basis": { "display_name": "Kai Martland", "location": " Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada", "clubs": [], "bio": null }, "alternatives": [], "selection_rule": "Explicit corresponding XC/track club or bio, then matching locale, then visible running history; no selection by forecast error." }, "capture_complete": false, "recent28_km": null, "previous56_km": null, "logged_weekly_km28": null, "run_days28": null, "runs28": null, "longest28_km": null, "latest_visible_run": null, "weeks": [ { "start": "2026-09-14", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-21", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-09-21", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-28", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-09-28", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-05", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-05", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-12", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-12", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-19", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-19", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "partial": true, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] } ], "observation_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "sessions": [], "limitation": "Visible uploaded running only; missing uploads, private activities and unrecorded training remain unknown. Empty calendar bins do not establish rest or injury.", "window_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "capture_fresh": true, "calendar_capture_complete": false, "collection_status": "fresh" }, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 27:18.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "ubc:13384", "name": "Rian Wilson", "place": 42, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.12, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "gap_s": -17.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16371", "name": "Ben House", "place": 43, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.07, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 25.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6615", "name": "Jacob White", "place": 45, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.0, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 36.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16370", "name": "Jason Ushko", "place": 46, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.02, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 35.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.416080513536611, "race_score": 7.416080513536611, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 26, "uninformative_place_high": 75, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13375", "key": "samuel|may", "name": "Samuel May", "team_id": "ubc", "team": "University of British Columbia", "team_short": "UBC", "profile_url": "https://gothunderbirds.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=13375", "roster_url": "https://gothunderbirds.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": null, "team_selection_order": 17, "forecast_status": "unknown", "unknown_reason": "no_current_xc", "place": null, "place_low": null, "place_high": null, "win_probability": null, "basis": { "kind": "historical_pb", "mark": { "event_id": "anet:2026/meet-653452/Mens Collegiate 1500 Meters", "date": "2026-04-11", "race": "Battle of Sparta", "event": "Mens Collegiate 1500 Meters", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.5, "time_s": 256.92, "name_raw": "Samuel May", "team": "British Columbia", "source_url": "https://www.athletic.net/TrackAndField/meet/653452/results/m/1/1500m", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 195 } }, "uncertainty": "Current fitness unknown. Shown after supported estimates without a finishing-position claim.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "alive:2025/usports/8 km - Masculin", "date": "2025-11-08", "race": "U SPORTS Cross Country Championships 2025", "event": "8 km - Masculin", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1659.0, "name_raw": "Samuel May", "team": "UBC Thunderbirds", "source_url": null, "venue": "Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 349 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1645.0, "name_raw": "Sam May", "team": "Ubc Thunderbirds", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 }, { "event_id": "slt:2025/bcxcchamp/U20", "date": "2025-10-18", "race": "BC Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1562.0, "name_raw": "MAY, Samuel", "team": "VALLEY ROYALS TRACK & FIELD CLUB", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/bcxcchamp/event/U20", "venue": "Vernon, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 370 }, { "event_id": "slt:2025/spiritrun/8K-Open", "date": "2025-09-28", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K-Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1490.0, "name_raw": "MAY, Sam", "team": "UBC THUNDERBIRDS", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/spiritrun/event/8K-Open", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 390 }, { "event_id": "tfrrs:2024/naia/Men 8k", "date": "2024-11-22", "race": "NAIA Cross Country Championships 2024", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1557.2, "name_raw": "Sam May", "team": "Dordt", "source_url": null, "venue": "Gans Creek Cross Country Course, Columbia, MO", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 700 } ], "personal_bests": [ { "event_id": "anet:2026/meet-653452/Mens Collegiate 1500 Meters", "date": "2026-04-11", "race": "Battle of Sparta", "event": "Mens Collegiate 1500 Meters", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.5, "time_s": 256.92, "name_raw": "Samuel May", "team": "British Columbia", "source_url": "https://www.athletic.net/TrackAndField/meet/653452/results/m/1/1500m", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 195 } ], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Unknown current form: no qualifying current XC result.", "Historical background: Battle of Sparta on 2026-04-11 (1.5 km, 4:16.9). 0 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Older performances are background ability, not evidence of current fitness. A recent XC race can change this status.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "ubc:13371", "name": "Max Holmes", "place": 66, "estimated_gap_percent": null, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13382", "name": "Noah Smith", "place": 65, "estimated_gap_percent": null, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.452177353088511, "race_score": 7.452177353088511, "sigma": 0.0847945205479452, "uninformative_place_low": 9, "uninformative_place_high": 99, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13378", "key": "devon|meadows", "name": "Devon Meadows", "team_id": "ubc", "team": "University of British Columbia", "team_short": "UBC", "profile_url": "https://gothunderbirds.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=13378", "roster_url": "https://gothunderbirds.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": null, "team_selection_order": 15, "forecast_status": "unknown", "unknown_reason": "no_current_xc", "place": null, "place_low": null, "place_high": null, "win_probability": null, "basis": { "kind": "historical_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2025/bcxcchamp/Senior", "date": "2025-10-18", "race": "BC Cross Country Championships", "event": "Senior", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 10.0, "time_s": 2029.0, "name_raw": "MEADOWS, Devon", "team": "UNATTACHED-BC", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/bcxcchamp/event/Senior", "venue": "Vernon, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 370 } }, "uncertainty": "Current fitness unknown. Shown after supported estimates without a finishing-position claim.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2025/bcxcchamp/Senior", "date": "2025-10-18", "race": "BC Cross Country Championships", "event": "Senior", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 10.0, "time_s": 2029.0, "name_raw": "MEADOWS, Devon", "team": "UNATTACHED-BC", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/bcxcchamp/event/Senior", "venue": "Vernon, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 370 }, { "event_id": "slt:2025/spiritrun/8K-Open", "date": "2025-09-28", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K-Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1509.0, "name_raw": "MEADOWS, Devon", "team": "UBC THUNDERBIRDS", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/spiritrun/event/8K-Open", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 390 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Unknown current form: no qualifying current XC result.", "Historical background: BC Cross Country Championships on 2025-10-18 (10 km, 33:49.0). 0 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Older performances are background ability, not evidence of current fitness. A recent XC race can change this status.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "ubc:13384", "name": "Rian Wilson", "place": 42, "estimated_gap_percent": null, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13374", "name": "Kai Martland", "place": 44, "estimated_gap_percent": null, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.412915469880493, "race_score": 7.412915469880493, "sigma": 0.09358447488584475, "uninformative_place_low": 2, "uninformative_place_high": 98, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13379", "key": "arata|nakanishi", "name": "Arata Nakanishi", "team_id": "ubc", "team": "University of British Columbia", "team_short": "UBC", "profile_url": "https://gothunderbirds.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=13379", "roster_url": "https://gothunderbirds.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 12, "team_selection_order": 12, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 61, "place_low": 36, "place_high": 83, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/bcxcchamp/U20", "date": "2026-10-17", "race": "BC Athletics Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1651.0, "name_raw": "NAKANISHI, Arata", "team": "VALLEY ROYALS TRACK & FIELD CLUB", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/U20", "venue": "Arbutus Meadows Farm, Nanoose Bay, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 6 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/bcxcchamp/U20", "date": "2026-10-17", "race": "BC Athletics Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1651.0, "name_raw": "NAKANISHI, Arata", "team": "VALLEY ROYALS TRACK & FIELD CLUB", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/U20", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 6 }, { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1645.0, "name_raw": "NAKANISHI, Arata", "team": "UBC", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "slt:2026/spiritrun/8K - Open", "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K - Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1696.0, "name_raw": "NAKANISHI, Arata", "team": "UBC THUNDERBIRDS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 26 }, { "event_id": "smx:2025/acxc/U20 Men 8km (U20)", "date": "2025-11-29", "race": "2025 Canadian Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20 Men 8km (U20)", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1661.9, "name_raw": "Arata Nakanishi", "team": "BC Valley Royals Track & Field Club", "source_url": null, "venue": "Fanshawe Golf Course, London, ON", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 328 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1651.7, "name_raw": "Arata Nakanishi", "team": "Ubc Thunderbirds", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 }, { "event_id": "slt:2025/bcxcchamp/U20", "date": "2025-10-18", "race": "BC Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1575.0, "name_raw": "NAKANISHI, Arata", "team": "VALLEY ROYALS TRACK & FIELD CLUB", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/bcxcchamp/event/U20", "venue": "Vernon, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 370 }, { "event_id": "slt:2025/spiritrun/8K-Open", "date": "2025-09-28", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K-Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1530.0, "name_raw": "NAKANISHI, Arata", "team": "UBC THUNDERBIRDS", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/spiritrun/event/8K-Open", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 390 } ], "personal_bests": [ { "event_id": null, "date": "2026-04-11", "race": null, "event": "1500 Meters", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.5, "time_s": 260.52, "name_raw": "Arata Nakanishi", "team": null, "source_url": "https://www.athletic.net/athlete/30442716/track-and-field/", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 195 }, { "event_id": null, "date": "2026-03-28", "race": null, "event": "3000m Steeplechase", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 3.0, "time_s": 607.33, "name_raw": "Arata Nakanishi", "team": null, "source_url": "https://www.athletic.net/athlete/30442716/track-and-field/", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 209 } ], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: BC Athletics Cross Country Championships on 2026-10-17 (8 km, 27:31.0). 3 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "victoria:8060", "name": "Dylan Naresh", "place": 59, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.27, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-17", "race": "BC Athletics Cross Country Championships", "gap_s": -7.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/U20", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 34.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "gap_s": -18.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "regina:12426", "name": "Henry Sharp", "place": 60, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.0, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 11.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16355", "name": "Daniel Gutierrez", "place": 62, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.2, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5109", "name": "Justin Monteleone", "place": 63, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.23, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 4.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.430008299785216, "race_score": 7.430008299785216, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 36, "uninformative_place_high": 83, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13385", "key": "kouken|narbett", "name": "Kouken Narbett", "team_id": "ubc", "team": "University of British Columbia", "team_short": "UBC", "profile_url": "https://gothunderbirds.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=13385", "roster_url": "https://gothunderbirds.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 4, "team_selection_order": 4, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 24, "place_low": 15, "place_high": 61, "win_probability": 5e-05, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1573.0, "name_raw": "NARBETT, Kouken", "team": "UBC", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1573.0, "name_raw": "NARBETT, Kouken", "team": "UBC", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "slt:2026/spiritrun/8K - Open", "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K - Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1654.0, "name_raw": "KOUKEN, Narbett", "team": "UBC THUNDERBIRDS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "source name only; no roster binding", "age_days": 26 }, { "event_id": "ss:2026/steveston-icebreaker-8k/8 km", "date": "2026-01-18", "race": "Steveston Icebreaker 8K", "event": "8 km", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1576.0, "name_raw": "Kouken Narbett", "team": "Richmond, BC", "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 278 }, { "event_id": "milesplit:2025/716111/MEN 16-17 5000 METER RUN", "date": "2025-09-20", "race": "Festival of Cross Country 2025", "event": "MEN 16-17 5000 METER RUN", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 5.0, "time_s": 1048.87, "name_raw": "Kouken Narbett", "team": "Kjak - Kajak", "source_url": null, "venue": "Crescent Park, Surrey, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 398 }, { "event_id": "oa:2024/gunnershaw/5km", "date": "2024-12-07", "race": "Gunner Shaw Memorial XC 2024", "event": "5km", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 5.0, "time_s": 1028.5, "name_raw": "Kouken Narbett", "team": "Kajaks", "source_url": null, "venue": "Jericho Beach Park, Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 685 }, { "event_id": "slt:2023/gunner/Silver Fox 5K", "date": "2023-12-02", "race": "Gunner Shaw Memorial XC", "event": "Silver Fox 5K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 5.0, "time_s": 1034.0, "name_raw": "NARBETT, Kouken", "team": "", "source_url": null, "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 1056 }, { "event_id": "slt:2023/ice/8K", "date": "2023-01-15", "race": "Steveston Icebreaker 8K", "event": "8K", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1819.0, "name_raw": "NARBETT, Kouken", "team": "", "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 1377 } ], "personal_bests": [ { "event_id": "anet:2026/meet-653452/Mens Collegiate 1500 Meters", "date": "2026-04-11", "race": "Battle of Sparta", "event": "Mens Collegiate 1500 Meters", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.5, "time_s": 240.45, "name_raw": "Kouken Narbett", "team": "Kajaks T&F Club", "source_url": "https://www.athletic.net/TrackAndField/meet/653452/results/m/1/1500m", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 195 }, { "event_id": null, "date": "2026-05-09", "race": null, "event": "3000 Meters", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 3.0, "time_s": 525.74, "name_raw": "Kouken Narbett", "team": null, "source_url": "https://www.athletic.net/athlete/30226781/track-and-field/", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 167 } ], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": { "profile_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/184389062", "strava_id": "184389062", "identity_status": "inferred_strongest_available_match", "identity_confidence": "low", "identity_basis": { "status": "inferred_strongest_available_match", "confidence": "low", "confidence_is": "Qualitative evidence assessment; not a calibrated probability.", "strava_id": "184389062", "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/184389062", "basis": { "display_name": "Kouken N", "location": " Richmond, British Columbia, Canada", "clubs": [], "bio": null }, "alternatives": [], "selection_rule": "Explicit corresponding XC/track club or bio, then matching locale, then visible running history; no selection by forecast error." }, "capture_complete": false, "recent28_km": null, "previous56_km": null, "logged_weekly_km28": null, "run_days28": null, "runs28": null, "longest28_km": null, "latest_visible_run": null, "weeks": [ { "start": "2026-09-14", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-21", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-09-21", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-28", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-09-28", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-05", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-05", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-12", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-12", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-19", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-19", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "partial": true, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] } ], "observation_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "sessions": [], "limitation": "Visible uploaded running only; missing uploads, private activities and unrecorded training remain unknown. Empty calendar bins do not establish rest or injury.", "window_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "capture_fresh": true, "calendar_capture_complete": false, "collection_status": "fresh" }, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 26:13.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "victoria:8076", "name": "Brendan O'Brien", "place": 22, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.33, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -16.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "gap_s": 34.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8077", "name": "Hayden Woodrow", "place": 23, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.06, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -28.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "gap_s": 40.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6595", "name": "Jayvin Crosschild", "place": 25, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.02, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -5.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13386", "name": "Randy Ren", "place": 26, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.08, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "gap_s": 6.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.395213668744178, "race_score": 7.395213668744178, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 15, "uninformative_place_high": 61, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13386", "key": "randy|ren", "name": "Randy Ren", "team_id": "ubc", "team": "University of British Columbia", "team_short": "UBC", "profile_url": "https://gothunderbirds.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=13386", "roster_url": "https://gothunderbirds.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "corroborated", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "Source-backed identity link supplied.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 5, "team_selection_order": 5, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 26, "place_low": 15, "place_high": 61, "win_probability": 0.00015, "basis": { "kind": 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"identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 6 }, { "event_id": "slt:2026/spiritrun/8K - Open", "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K - Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1648.0, "name_raw": "RANDY, Ren", "team": "UBC THUNDERBIRDS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "source name only; no roster binding", "age_days": 26 }, { "event_id": "smx:2025/acxc/Open Men 10km (Senior)", "date": "2025-11-29", "race": "2025 Canadian Cross Country Championships", "event": "Open Men 10km (Senior)", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 10.0, "time_s": 1986.8, "name_raw": "Randy Ren", "team": "BC Vancouver Thunderbirds", "source_url": null, "venue": "Fanshawe Golf Course, London, ON", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 328 }, { "event_id": "ss:2025/great-trek/5 km", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Great Trek", "event": "5 km", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 5.0, "time_s": 938.0, "name_raw": "Randy Ren", "team": "Vancouver, BC", "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 }, { "event_id": "slt:2025/spiritrun/8K-Open", "date": "2025-09-28", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K-Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1453.0, "name_raw": "REN, Randy", "team": "VANCOUVER THUNDERBIRDS", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/spiritrun/event/8K-Open", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 390 }, { "event_id": "ss:2024/great-trek/5 km", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "Great Trek", "event": "5 km", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 5.0, "time_s": 979.0, "name_raw": "Randy Ren", "team": "Vancouver, BC", "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 } ], "personal_bests": [ { "event_id": null, "date": "2026-03-28", "race": null, "event": "5000m", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 5.0, "time_s": 934.3, "name_raw": "Randy Ren", "team": null, "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/94278/5997742/UBC_Open/Mens-5000-Meters", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 209 } ], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": { "profile_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/119966646", "strava_id": "119966646", "identity_status": "verified_existing_source_review", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": [ { "kind": "user_established_self", "source_path": "data/strava_ids.csv", "source_sha256": "ad25d4b6b8a75bf084282192fc0ffda15e4ac5d568a2ffb35246828b35cf7ba2", "source_url": null, "statement": "Randy Ren119966646 expressly established by user/session; legacy row labelled self is supplemental, not independent proof." } ], "capture_complete": true, "recent28_km": 376.61, "previous56_km": 494.53965, "logged_weekly_km28": 94.2, "run_days28": 28, "runs28": 33, "longest28_km": 22.51, "latest_visible_run": "2026-10-22", "weeks": [ { "start": "2026-09-14", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-21", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 84.7, "runs": 6, "run_days": 6, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20178152640", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20193294501", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20205116417", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20217908668", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20232985428", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20245709044" ] }, { "start": "2026-09-21", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-28", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 81.02, "runs": 9, "run_days": 7, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20274191439", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20290247506", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20301482340", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20317382241", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20328024028", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20341703988", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20356524909", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20356992160", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20357191949" ] }, { "start": "2026-09-28", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-05", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 85.83, "runs": 7, "run_days": 7, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20370731287", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20386313274", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20397823411", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20410036007", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20426121717", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20438609102", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20451682563" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-05", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-12", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 104.51, "runs": 7, "run_days": 7, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20465566389", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20482508024", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20493459328", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20505597600", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20519461237", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20531972345", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20545580704" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-12", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-19", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 88.64, "runs": 9, "run_days": 7, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20557004010", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20575827563", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20583598409", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20597428486", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20613661978", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20626225870", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20627279389", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20627279405", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20640584504" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-19", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "partial": true, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 66.08, "runs": 5, "run_days": 4, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20651252294", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20668922417", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20678964059", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20692337239", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20704155867" ] } ], "observation_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "sessions": [ { "date": "2026-10-22", "name": "Reported interval session", "description": "", "url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20704155867/laps", "terrain": null, "effort": null, "recovery_s": null, "interpretation": null, "blocks": [], "forecast_use": "qualitative_only", "recorded_laps": [ { "index": 0, "source_lap": "0", "distance_m": 1000.0, "duration_s": 271.0, "displayed_pace": "4:31 /km", "net_elevation_m": null, "displayed_gap": null, "context_column": "HR", "context_value": "124 bpm", "lap_type": "unknown", "part": "unclassified", "effort": null }, { "index": 1, "source_lap": "1", "distance_m": 1000.0, "duration_s": 261.0, "displayed_pace": "4:21 /km", "net_elevation_m": null, "displayed_gap": null, "context_column": "HR", "context_value": "130 bpm", "lap_type": "unknown", "part": "unclassified", "effort": null }, { "index": 2, "source_lap": "2", "distance_m": 1000.0, "duration_s": 270.0, "displayed_pace": "4:30 /km", "net_elevation_m": null, "displayed_gap": null, "context_column": "HR", "context_value": "146 bpm", "lap_type": "unknown", "part": "unclassified", "effort": null }, { "index": 3, "source_lap": "3", "distance_m": 1000.0, "duration_s": 269.0, "displayed_pace": "4:29 /km", "net_elevation_m": null, "displayed_gap": null, "context_column": "HR", "context_value": "160 bpm", "lap_type": "unknown", "part": "unclassified", "effort": null }, { "index": 4, "source_lap": "4", "distance_m": 1000.0, "duration_s": 270.0, "displayed_pace": "4:30 /km", "net_elevation_m": null, "displayed_gap": null, "context_column": "HR", "context_value": "157 bpm", "lap_type": "unknown", "part": "unclassified", "effort": null }, { "index": 5, "source_lap": "5", "distance_m": 1000.0, "duration_s": 271.0, "displayed_pace": "4:31 /km", "net_elevation_m": null, "displayed_gap": null, "context_column": "HR", "context_value": "143 bpm", "lap_type": "unknown", "part": "unclassified", "effort": null }, { "index": 6, "source_lap": "6", "distance_m": 1000.0, "duration_s": 272.0, "displayed_pace": "4:32 /km", "net_elevation_m": null, "displayed_gap": null, "context_column": "HR", "context_value": "140 bpm", "lap_type": "unknown", "part": "unclassified", "effort": null }, { "index": 7, "source_lap": "7", "distance_m": 1000.0, "duration_s": 272.0, "displayed_pace": "4:32 /km", "net_elevation_m": null, "displayed_gap": null, "context_column": "HR", "context_value": "145 bpm", "lap_type": "unknown", "part": "unclassified", "effort": null }, { "index": 8, "source_lap": "8", "distance_m": 1000.0, "duration_s": 273.0, "displayed_pace": "4:33 /km", "net_elevation_m": null, "displayed_gap": null, "context_column": "HR", "context_value": "142 bpm", "lap_type": "unknown", "part": "unclassified", "effort": null }, { "index": 9, "source_lap": "9", "distance_m": 1000.0, "duration_s": 273.0, "displayed_pace": "4:33 /km", "net_elevation_m": null, "displayed_gap": null, "context_column": "HR", "context_value": "140 bpm", "lap_type": "unknown", "part": "unclassified", "effort": null }, { "index": 10, "source_lap": "10", "distance_m": 1000.0, "duration_s": 273.0, "displayed_pace": "4:33 /km", "net_elevation_m": null, "displayed_gap": null, "context_column": "HR", "context_value": "143 bpm", "lap_type": "unknown", "part": "unclassified", "effort": null }, { "index": 11, "source_lap": "11", "distance_m": 110.0, "duration_s": 32.0, "displayed_pace": "4:33 /km", "net_elevation_m": null, "displayed_gap": null, "context_column": "HR", "context_value": "147 bpm", "lap_type": "unknown", "part": "unclassified", "effort": null } ], "posted_session": { "text": null, "sets": [], "effort_labels": [], "basis": "athlete_description" }, "evidence": { "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20704155867/laps", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0129-laps-119966646-20704155867-388008654e25f6db.txt", "source_sha256": "388008654e25f6dbfb0d0d0f0a895f6d8f2ea9783edac1738cba48dea4eeed90", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:41:42.739Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "sanitized_lap_dom" } } ], "limitation": "Visible uploaded running only; missing uploads, private activities and unrecorded training remain unknown. Empty calendar bins do not establish rest or injury.", "window_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "capture_fresh": true, "calendar_capture_complete": true, "collection_status": "fresh" }, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: BC Athletics Cross Country Championships on 2026-10-17 (10 km, 33:00.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Visible running averages 94.2 km/week in the current 28-day window. The complete captured window permits a small logged-volume trend adjustment." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "ubc:13385", "name": "Kouken Narbett", "place": 24, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.08, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "gap_s": -6.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6595", "name": "Jayvin Crosschild", "place": 25, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.07, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6596", "name": "Preston Dodge", "place": 27, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.22, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "calgary:17455", "name": "Max Cook", "place": 28, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.23, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.396059356474096, "race_score": 7.399425196633715, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 15, "uninformative_place_high": 61, "training_log_adjustment": -0.003365840159618856, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13380", "key": "sacha|schimmelpenninck", "name": "Sacha Schimmelpenninck", "team_id": "ubc", "team": "University of British Columbia", "team_short": "UBC", "profile_url": "https://gothunderbirds.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=13380", "roster_url": "https://gothunderbirds.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "corroborated", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "Source-backed identity link supplied.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": null, "team_selection_order": 16, "forecast_status": "unknown", "unknown_reason": "no_current_xc", "place": null, "place_low": null, "place_high": null, "win_probability": null, "basis": { "kind": "historical_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "smx:2023/usports/Men 8k (University)", "date": "2023-11-12", "race": "U SPORTS Cross Country Championships 2023", "event": "Men 8k (University)", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1594.8, "name_raw": "Sacha Schimmelpenninck", "team": "UBC Thunderbirds", "source_url": "https://live.sportmadesimple.com/meets/28794/events/xc/1031952", "venue": "Thames Valley Golf Club, London, ON", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 1076 } }, "uncertainty": "Current fitness unknown. Shown after supported estimates without a finishing-position claim.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "smx:2023/usports/Men 8k (University)", "date": "2023-11-12", "race": "U SPORTS Cross Country Championships 2023", "event": "Men 8k (University)", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1594.8, "name_raw": "Sacha Schimmelpenninck", "team": "UBC Thunderbirds", "source_url": "https://live.sportmadesimple.com/meets/28794/events/xc/1031952", "venue": "Thames Valley Golf Club, London, ON", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 1076 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Unknown current form: no qualifying current XC result.", "Historical background: U SPORTS Cross Country Championships 2023 on 2023-11-12 (8 km, 26:34.8). 0 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Older performances are background ability, not evidence of current fitness. A recent XC race can change this status.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "ubc:13371", "name": "Max Holmes", "place": 66, "estimated_gap_percent": null, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13382", "name": "Noah Smith", "place": 65, "estimated_gap_percent": null, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.4590917561101575, "race_score": 7.4590917561101575, "sigma": 0.12904566210045662, "uninformative_place_low": 2, "uninformative_place_high": 101, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13382", "key": "noah|smith", "name": "Noah Smith", "team_id": "ubc", "team": "University of British Columbia", "team_short": "UBC", "profile_url": "https://gothunderbirds.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=13382", "roster_url": "https://gothunderbirds.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 13, "team_selection_order": 13, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 65, "place_low": 39, "place_high": 85, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/bcxcchamp/U20", "date": "2026-10-17", "race": "BC Athletics Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1654.0, "name_raw": "SMITH, Noah", "team": "", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/U20", "venue": "Arbutus Meadows Farm, Nanoose Bay, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 6 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/bcxcchamp/U20", "date": "2026-10-17", "race": "BC Athletics Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1654.0, "name_raw": "SMITH, Noah", "team": "", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/U20", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 6 }, { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1656.0, "name_raw": "SMITH, Noah", "team": "UBC", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "slt:2026/spiritrun/8K - Open", "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K - Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1701.0, "name_raw": "NOAH, Smith", "team": "UBC THUNDERBIRDS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "source name only; no roster binding", "age_days": 26 }, { "event_id": "slt:2025/bcxcchamp/U20", "date": "2025-10-18", "race": "BC Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1666.0, "name_raw": "SMITH, Noah", "team": "OTTAWA LIONS T.F.C", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/bcxcchamp/event/U20", "venue": "Vernon, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 370 } ], "personal_bests": [ { "event_id": null, "date": "2024-06-08", "race": null, "event": "3000 Meters", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 3.0, "time_s": 525.29, "name_raw": "Noah Smith", "team": null, "source_url": "https://www.athletic.net/athlete/30442718/track-and-field/", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 867 } ], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": { "profile_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/103918855", "strava_id": "103918855", "identity_status": "verified_existing_source_review", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": [ { "kind": "owner_bound_race_correspondence", "source_path": "data/raw/strava/103918855/202542.txt", "source_sha256": "8df0e261ff0cf38e477532264b1a6de662323478f2c367db939632f03f624556", "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/103918855", "source_url_scope": "Observed owner profile; exact legacy interval-request URL not preserved. Cache filename and owner pointer retained.", "activity_id": "16184402184", "activity_url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/16184402184", "owner_strava_id": "103918855", "owner_name": "Noah Smith", "owner_pointer": "appContext.preFetchedEntries[2].rowData.activities[0].athlete_id_str", "activity_title": "BC XC", "activity_date": "2025-10-18", "watch_distance_km": 7.73, "watch_moving_s": 1665, "activity_source_time_label": "Time", "watch_precision": "rounded interval display; time label preserved", "official_result": { "path": "data/raw/www.startlinetiming.com/en__races__2025__bcxcchamp__event__U20.html", "sha256": "80ed42f0cd42bdb2bb59f25dded03b4d8a8dfba450172fdc2905514f25ea6b3c", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/bcxcchamp/event/U20", "event_id": "slt:2025/bcxcchamp/U20", "source_header": [ "Event", "Place", "Time", "Race #", "Name", "Team", "Division", "Place/Gender", "Place/Division" ], "source_cells": [ "U20", "14/29", "0:27:46", "1427", "SMITH, Noah", "OTTAWA LIONS T.F.C", "M-U20", "14/17", "14/17" ], "source_row_ordinal": 13, "name_raw": "SMITH, Noah", "team_raw": "OTTAWA LIONS T.F.C", "gender": "M", "date": "2025-10-18", "distance_km": 8.0, "clock_raw": "0:27:46", "time_s": 1666.0, "time_basis": "TIME column; gun/chip unspecified", "distance_evidence": { "path": "data/usports/2026-10-23/forecast/identity-review/men/distance-followup/bcxc2025-final-technical-package.pdf", "sha256": "fc2ae3e3ea21a5c2b2bb7cc41e9b2b37207ad5d0455b7ec984243a4be50bbebf", "source_url": "https://files.trackie.com/uploads/event/2025-10-15-21-47-08-1715441773-578913.pdf", "page": 6, "fact": "Final schedule explicitly assigns8.0km to bothU20Female andU20Male." } }, "clock_difference_s": -1.0, "distance_relative_difference": -0.03374999999999995, "named_race": true, "roster_corroboration": { "source_path": "data/usports/2026-10-23/canwest/ubc.html", "source_sha256": "9ef5b34cf646f2fa983c6f73ce68efa454523d12764e2b7ea717201dc6b0fade", "source_url": "https://gothunderbirds.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "roster_id": "ubc:13382", "name": "Noah Smith", "team": "University of British Columbia", "season": "2026-27", "profile_id": "13382", "profile_url": "https://gothunderbirds.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=13382", "source_person": { "@type": "Person", "@context": "http://schema.org", "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://gothunderbirds.ca/images/2026/9/24/XC_Noah_Smith.jpg", "width": 80, "height": 102 }, "name": "Noah Smith", "gender": "M", "url": "https://gothunderbirds.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=13382" } }, "correspondence_fact": "Exact owner ID and literal owner/roster/timer name; named BCXC race on same absolute date; source Time and watch clock within10s; source8km and watch within15%. No geography used.", "limitations": [ "Legacy publication/capture time unknown; absolute source date retained, neverfilemtime. Identity proof only; no historical feature availability inferred.", "Source timer club is historical affiliation. Current university membership established separately by official current roster." ] } ], "capture_complete": true, "recent28_km": null, "previous56_km": null, "logged_weekly_km28": null, "run_days28": null, "runs28": null, "longest28_km": null, "latest_visible_run": "2025-11-08", "weeks": [ { "start": "2026-09-14", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-21", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-09-21", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-28", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-09-28", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-05", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-05", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-12", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-12", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-19", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-19", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "partial": true, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] } ], "observation_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "sessions": [], "limitation": "Visible uploaded running only; missing uploads, private activities and unrecorded training remain unknown. Empty calendar bins do not establish rest or injury.", "window_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "capture_fresh": true, "calendar_capture_complete": true, "collection_status": "fresh" }, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: BC Athletics Cross Country Championships on 2026-10-17 (8 km, 27:34.0). 3 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5109", "name": "Justin Monteleone", "place": 63, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.14, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 15.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5108", "name": "John Kwon", "place": 64, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.13, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 9.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13371", "name": "Max Holmes", "place": 66, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.09, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -15.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6836", "name": "Joshua Malenchak", "place": 67, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.26, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.433773356268427, "race_score": 7.433773356268427, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 39, "uninformative_place_high": 85, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13387", "key": "ryerson|stocktonthomas", "name": "Ryerson Stockton-Thomas", "team_id": "ubc", "team": "University of British Columbia", "team_short": "UBC", "profile_url": "https://gothunderbirds.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=13387", "roster_url": "https://gothunderbirds.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 2, "team_selection_order": 2, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 16, "place_low": 10, "place_high": 50, "win_probability": 0.0003, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/bcxcchamp/Senior", "date": "2026-10-17", "race": "BC Athletics Cross Country Championships", "event": "Senior", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 10.0, "time_s": 1964.0, "name_raw": "STOCKTON -THOMAS, Ryerson", "team": "VANCOUVER THUNDERBIRDS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/Senior", "venue": "Arbutus Meadows Farm, Nanoose Bay, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 6 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/bcxcchamp/Senior", "date": "2026-10-17", "race": "BC Athletics Cross Country Championships", "event": "Senior", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 10.0, "time_s": 1964.0, "name_raw": "STOCKTON -THOMAS, Ryerson", "team": "VANCOUVER THUNDERBIRDS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/Senior", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 6 }, { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1576.0, "name_raw": "STOCKTON-THOMAS, Ryerson", "team": "UBC", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "slt:2026/spiritrun/8K - Open", "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K - Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1605.0, "name_raw": "RYERSON, Stockton-Thomas", "team": "UBC THUNDERBIRDS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "source name only; no roster binding", "age_days": 26 }, { "event_id": "ss:2026/vancouver-sun-run/10 km", "date": "2026-04-19", "race": "Vancouver Sun Run", "event": "10 km", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 10.0, "time_s": 1882.12, "name_raw": "Ryerson Stockton-Thomas", "team": "Vancouver, BC", "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 187 }, { "event_id": "ss:2026/first-half/Half Marathon", "date": "2026-02-08", "race": "First Half", "event": "Half Marathon", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 21.0975, "time_s": 4202.0, "name_raw": "Ryerson Stockton-Thomas", "team": "Vancouver, BC", "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 257 }, { "event_id": "smx:2025/acxc/Open Men 10km (Senior)", "date": "2025-11-29", "race": "2025 Canadian Cross Country Championships", "event": "Open Men 10km (Senior)", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 10.0, "time_s": 1963.0, "name_raw": "Ryerson Stockton -Thomas", "team": "BC Vancouver Thunderbirds", "source_url": null, "venue": "Fanshawe Golf Course, London, ON", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 328 }, { "event_id": "ss:2025/great-trek/10 km", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Great Trek", "event": "10 km", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 10.0, "time_s": 1975.0, "name_raw": "Ryerson Stockton-Thomas", "team": "Vancouver, BC", "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 }, { "event_id": "slt:2025/bcxcchamp/Senior", "date": "2025-10-18", "race": "BC Cross Country Championships", "event": "Senior", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 10.0, "time_s": 1937.0, "name_raw": "STOCKTON -THOMAS, Ryerson", "team": "VANCOUVER THUNDERBIRDS", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/bcxcchamp/event/Senior", "venue": "Vernon, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 370 }, { "event_id": "slt:2025/spiritrun/8K-Open", "date": "2025-09-28", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K-Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1434.0, "name_raw": "STOCKTON-THOMAS, Ryerson", "team": "VANCOUVER THUNDERBIRDS", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/spiritrun/event/8K-Open", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 390 }, { "event_id": "ss:2025/vancouver-sun-run/10 km", "date": "2025-04-27", "race": "Vancouver Sun Run", "event": "10 km", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 10.0, "time_s": 2028.29, "name_raw": "Ryerson Stockton-Thomas", "team": "Vancouver, BC", "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 544 }, { "event_id": "ss:2025/first-half/Half Marathon", "date": "2025-02-09", "race": "First Half", "event": "Half Marathon", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 21.0975, "time_s": 4924.0, "name_raw": "Ryerson Stockton-Thomas", "team": "Vancouver, BC", "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 621 }, { "event_id": "ss:2024/great-trek/10 km", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "Great Trek", "event": "10 km", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 10.0, "time_s": 2022.0, "name_raw": "Ryerson Stockton-Thomas", "team": "Vancouver, BC", "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 }, { "event_id": "ss:2024/first-half/Half Marathon", "date": "2024-02-11", "race": "First Half", "event": "Half Marathon", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 21.0975, "time_s": 4535.0, "name_raw": "Ryerson Stockton-Thomas", "team": "Vancouver, BC", "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 985 }, { "event_id": "ss:2023/great-trek/10 km", "date": "2023-10-28", "race": "Great Trek", "event": "10 km", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 10.0, "time_s": 2130.0, "name_raw": "Ryerson Stockton-Thomas", "team": "Vancouver, BC", "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 1091 }, { "event_id": "ss:2023/vancouver-eastside-10k/10K", "date": "2023-09-24", "race": "Under Armour Eastside 10K", "event": "10K", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 10.0, "time_s": 2154.0, "name_raw": "Ryerson Stockton-Thomas", "team": "Vancouver, BC", "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 1125 }, { "event_id": "ss:2023/vancouver-half-marathon/5 km", "date": "2023-06-25", "race": "Vancouver Half Marathon", "event": "5 km", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 5.0, "time_s": 1050.0, "name_raw": "Ryerson Stockton-Thomas", "team": "Vancouver, BC", "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 1216 }, { "event_id": "ss:2023/bmo-vancouver-marathon/Half 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no present-day refresh.", "source_path": "data/archive/2026-10-13-senior-men-forecast/strava_a/prof_wilson.html", "source_sha256": "3960e40258c5ce93fd631db4249f24d7dce12f89589d6edc019f9bc1fc04e698" } ], "capture_complete": true, "recent28_km": 35.35, "previous56_km": 117.07000000000001, "logged_weekly_km28": 8.8, "run_days28": 3, "runs28": 3, "longest28_km": 17.34, "latest_visible_run": "2026-10-22", "weeks": [ { "start": "2026-09-14", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-21", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 9.22, "runs": 1, "run_days": 1, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20208942942" ] }, { "start": "2026-09-21", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-28", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-09-28", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-05", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-05", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-12", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-12", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-19", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 18.01, "runs": 2, "run_days": 2, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20626884837", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20671005711" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-19", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "partial": true, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 17.34, "runs": 1, "run_days": 1, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20695872675" ] } ], "observation_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "sessions": [], "limitation": "Visible uploaded running only; missing uploads, private activities and unrecorded training remain unknown. Empty calendar bins do not establish rest or injury.", "window_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "capture_fresh": true, "calendar_capture_complete": true, "collection_status": "fresh" }, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: BC Athletics Cross Country Championships on 2026-10-17 (10 km, 33:26.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Visible running averages 8.8 km/week in the current 28-day window. The complete captured window permits a small logged-volume trend adjustment." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "calgary:17469", "name": "Niklas Scherer", "place": 40, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.13, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6837", "name": "Draycen Ralph", "place": 41, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.03, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16371", "name": "Ben House", "place": 43, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.04, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13374", "name": "Kai Martland", "place": 44, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.12, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "gap_s": 17.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.414913361081006, "race_score": 7.410878749292294, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 25, "uninformative_place_high": 75, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0040346117887124335, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16355", "key": "daniel|gutierrez", "name": "Daniel Gutierrez", "team_id": "alberta", "team": "University of Alberta", "team_short": "Alberta", "profile_url": "https://bearsandpandas.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=16355", "roster_url": "https://bearsandpandas.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 5, "team_selection_order": 5, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 62, "place_low": 37, "place_high": 84, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1724.4, "name_raw": "Daniel Gutierrez", "team": "Alberta Golden Bears", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1724.4, "name_raw": "Daniel Gutierrez", "team": "Alberta Golden Bears", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 }, { "event_id": "godinos:2026/acac-gp2/Men 8km", "date": "2026-09-19", "race": "ACAC Running Room Grand Prix Series Race #2", "event": "Men 8km", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1764.0, "name_raw": "Daniel Gutierrez", "team": "UofA", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/godinos.com/documents/2026/9/20/ACAC_Grand_Prix__2_Results.pdf", "venue": "Calgary, Alberta (venue not independently verified)", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 34 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1684.8, "name_raw": "Daniel Gutierrez", "team": "Alberta Golden Bears", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: Dakota Classic on 2026-09-26 (8 km, 28:44.4). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "regina:12426", "name": "Henry Sharp", "place": 60, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.21, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": -5.26, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13379", "name": "Arata Nakanishi", "place": 61, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.2, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5109", "name": "Justin Monteleone", "place": 63, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.03, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5108", "name": "John Kwon", "place": 64, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.04, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.432021455637257, "race_score": 7.432021455637257, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 37, "uninformative_place_high": 84, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16367", "key": "noah|heuver", "name": "Noah Heuver", "team_id": "alberta", "team": "University of Alberta", "team_short": "Alberta", "profile_url": "https://bearsandpandas.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=16367", "roster_url": "https://bearsandpandas.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 6, "team_selection_order": 6, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 69, "place_low": 43, "place_high": 86, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1701.16, "name_raw": "Noah Heuver", "team": "Alberta Golden Bears", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1701.16, "name_raw": "Noah Heuver", "team": "Alberta Golden Bears", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 }, { "event_id": "godinos:2026/acac-gp2/Men 8km", "date": "2026-09-19", "race": "ACAC Running Room Grand Prix Series Race #2", "event": "Men 8km", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1819.0, "name_raw": "Noah Heuver", "team": "UofA", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/godinos.com/documents/2026/9/20/ACAC_Grand_Prix__2_Results.pdf", "venue": "Calgary, Alberta (venue not independently verified)", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 34 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: Dakota Classic on 2026-09-26 (8 km, 28:21.2). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "manitoba:6836", "name": "Joshua Malenchak", "place": 67, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.25, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": -17.67, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6603", "name": "Logan Kaban", "place": 68, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.06, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": -32.51, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6610", "name": "Markus Thompson", "place": 70, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.02, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5111", "name": "Basil Parkins", "place": 71, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.85, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.438870321419721, "race_score": 7.438870321419721, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 43, "uninformative_place_high": 86, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16357", "key": "benjamin|higham", "name": "Ben Higham", "team_id": "alberta", "team": "University of Alberta", "team_short": "Alberta", "profile_url": "https://bearsandpandas.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=16357", "roster_url": "https://bearsandpandas.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 1, "team_selection_order": 1, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 18, "place_low": 7, "place_high": 65, "win_probability": 0.00455, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1573.0, "name_raw": "HIGHAM, Ben", "team": "ALBERTA GOLDEN BEARS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1573.0, "name_raw": "HIGHAM, Ben", "team": "ALBERTA GOLDEN BEARS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1663.4, "name_raw": "Ben Higham", "team": "Alberta Golden Bears", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 }, { "event_id": "uofa:2024/canwestxc/8K - Men", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2024", "event": "8K - Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1698.409, "name_raw": "Ben Higham", "team": "Alberta Golden Bears/Pandas", "source_url": null, "venue": "Stoney Creek Centre, Camrose, AB", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 26:13.0). 1 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "ubc:13387", "name": "Ryerson Stockton-Thomas", "place": 16, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.31, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -3.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8098", "name": "James Sikich", "place": 17, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.14, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -21.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13365", "name": "James Doughty", "place": 19, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.21, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 9.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6834", "name": "Carson Kroeker", "place": 20, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.21, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -10.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.386468700548959, "race_score": 7.386468700548959, "sigma": 0.037000000000000005, "uninformative_place_low": 7, "uninformative_place_high": 65, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16371", "key": "benjamin|house", "name": "Ben House", "team_id": "alberta", "team": "University of Alberta", "team_short": "Alberta", "profile_url": "https://bearsandpandas.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=16371", "roster_url": "https://bearsandpandas.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 3, "team_selection_order": 3, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 43, "place_low": 25, "place_high": 75, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1613.0, "name_raw": "HOUSE, Ben", "team": "ALBERTA GOLDEN BEARS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1613.0, "name_raw": "HOUSE, Ben", "team": "ALBERTA GOLDEN BEARS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "godinos:2026/acac-gp2/Men 8km", "date": "2026-09-19", "race": "ACAC Running Room Grand Prix Series Race #2", "event": "Men 8km", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1750.0, "name_raw": "Ben House", "team": "UofA", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/godinos.com/documents/2026/9/20/ACAC_Grand_Prix__2_Results.pdf", "venue": "Calgary, Alberta (venue not independently verified)", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 34 }, { "event_id": "alive:2025/usports/8 km - Masculin", "date": "2025-11-08", "race": "U SPORTS Cross Country Championships 2025", "event": "8 km - Masculin", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1605.0, "name_raw": "Ben House", "team": "Saskatchewan Huskies", "source_url": null, "venue": "Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 349 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1647.8, "name_raw": "Ben House", "team": "Saskatchewan Huskies", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 }, { "event_id": "uofa:2024/canwestxc/8K - Men", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2024", "event": "8K - Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1668.667, "name_raw": "Ben House", "team": "Saskatchewan Huskies", "source_url": null, "venue": "Stoney Creek Centre, Camrose, AB", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 26:53.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "manitoba:6837", "name": "Draycen Ralph", "place": 41, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.08, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -11.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13384", "name": "Rian Wilson", "place": 42, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.04, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13374", "name": "Kai Martland", "place": 44, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.07, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -25.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6615", "name": "Jacob White", "place": 45, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.08, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 11.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.415353742208618, "race_score": 7.415353742208618, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 25, "uninformative_place_high": 75, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16359", "key": "ethan|randall", "name": "Ethan Randall", "team_id": "alberta", "team": "University of Alberta", "team_short": "Alberta", "profile_url": "https://bearsandpandas.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=16359", "roster_url": "https://bearsandpandas.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 7, "team_selection_order": 7, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 74, "place_low": 56, "place_high": 91, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1758.92, "name_raw": "Ethan Randall", "team": "Alberta Golden Bears", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1758.92, "name_raw": "Ethan Randall", "team": "Alberta Golden Bears", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 }, { "event_id": "godinos:2026/acac-gp2/Men 8km", "date": "2026-09-19", "race": "ACAC Running Room Grand Prix Series Race #2", "event": "Men 8km", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1811.0, "name_raw": "Ethan Randall", "team": "UofA", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/godinos.com/documents/2026/9/20/ACAC_Grand_Prix__2_Results.pdf", "venue": "Calgary, Alberta (venue not independently verified)", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 34 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1704.2, "name_raw": "Ethan Randall", "team": "Alberta Golden Bears", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 }, { "event_id": "uofa:2024/canwestxc/8K - Men", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2024", "event": "8K - Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1687.628, "name_raw": "Ethan Randall", "team": "Alberta Golden Bears/Pandas", "source_url": null, "venue": "Stoney Creek Centre, Camrose, AB", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: Dakota Classic on 2026-09-26 (8 km, 29:18.9). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "regina:12436", "name": "Kristian Richards", "place": 72, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.47, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": 5.45, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5115", "name": "Henry Nestmann", "place": 73, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.32, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "calgary:17456", "name": "Kai Deausy", "place": 75, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.05, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-19", "race": "ACAC Running Room Grand Prix Series Race #2", "gap_s": -34.0, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/godinos.com/documents/2026/9/20/ACAC_Grand_Prix__2_Results.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5116", "name": "Ethan Peregrym", "place": 76, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.32, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.454828201703531, "race_score": 7.454828201703531, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 56, "uninformative_place_high": 91, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16369", "key": "tyler|sharpe", "name": "Tyler Sharpe", "team_id": "alberta", "team": "University of Alberta", "team_short": "Alberta", "profile_url": "https://bearsandpandas.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=16369", "roster_url": "https://bearsandpandas.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "Exact name, Alberta provincial affiliation and Calgary Spartans club agree with current university profile hometown Calgary and previous club Calgary Spartans.", "identity_alternatives": "Older slow Surrey road records are a weaker same-name candidate and should not be used.", "identity_source_url": "https://athletics.ca/athlete/tyler-sharpe/", "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": null, "team_selection_order": 10, "forecast_status": "unknown", "unknown_reason": "no_current_xc", "place": null, "place_low": null, "place_high": null, "win_probability": null, "basis": { "kind": "historical_pb", "mark": { "event_id": null, "date": "2025-06-01", "race": "Gord's Running Store Athletics Series Meet #2", "event": "1500 Metres Outdoor", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.5, "time_s": 235.49, "name_raw": null, "team": null, "source_url": "https://athletics.ca/athlete/tyler-sharpe/", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 509 } }, "uncertainty": "Current fitness unknown. Shown after supported estimates without a finishing-position claim.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "racestats:2026/tc10k/TC10K", "date": "2026-04-26", "race": "TC10K", "event": "TC10K", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 10.0, "time_s": 3163.0, "name_raw": "Tyler Sharpe", "team": null, "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 180 }, { "event_id": "ss:2024/run-for-water/5 km", "date": "2024-05-26", "race": "Run for Water", "event": "5 km", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 5.0, "time_s": 1240.0, "name_raw": "Tyler Sharpe", "team": "Surrey, BC", "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 880 } ], "personal_bests": [ { "event_id": null, "date": "2025-06-01", "race": "Gord's Running Store Athletics Series Meet #2", "event": "1500 Metres Outdoor", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.5, "time_s": 235.49, "name_raw": null, "team": null, "source_url": "https://athletics.ca/athlete/tyler-sharpe/", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 509 }, { "event_id": null, "date": "2021-06-26", "race": "CALTAF - Cheetah Invitational", "event": "Mile Outdoor", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.609344, "time_s": 284.3, "name_raw": null, "team": null, "source_url": "https://athletics.ca/athlete/tyler-sharpe/", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 1945 } ], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Unknown current form: no qualifying current XC result.", "Historical background: Gord's Running Store Athletics Series Meet #2 on 2025-06-01 (1.5 km, 3:55.5). 0 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Older performances are background ability, not evidence of current fitness. A recent XC race can change this status.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "alberta:16359", "name": "Ethan Randall", "place": 74, "estimated_gap_percent": null, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16367", "name": "Noah Heuver", "place": 69, "estimated_gap_percent": null, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.448477805741101, "race_score": 7.448477805741101, "sigma": 0.1005662100456621, "uninformative_place_low": 4, "uninformative_place_high": 100, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16360", "key": "adam|stang", "name": "Adam Stang", "team_id": "alberta", "team": "University of Alberta", "team_short": "Alberta", "profile_url": "https://bearsandpandas.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=16360", "roster_url": "https://bearsandpandas.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 8, "team_selection_order": 8, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 80, "place_low": 52, "place_high": 96, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1701.0, "name_raw": "STANG, Adam", "team": "ALBERTA GOLDEN BEARS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1701.0, "name_raw": "STANG, Adam", "team": "ALBERTA GOLDEN BEARS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "slt:2024/usports/Men", "date": "2024-11-09", "race": "U SPORTS Cross-Country Championships", "event": "Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1507.0, "name_raw": "STANG, Adam", "team": "ALBERTA GOLDEN BEARS", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2024/usports/event/Men", "venue": "Kelowna, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 713 }, { "event_id": "uofa:2024/canwestxc/8K - Men", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2024", "event": "8K - Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1660.604, "name_raw": "Adam Stang", "team": "Alberta Golden Bears/Pandas", "source_url": null, "venue": "Stoney Creek Centre, Camrose, AB", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 28:21.0). 1 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5105", "name": "Brody Cormier", "place": 78, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.23, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 17.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6601", "name": "Ewan Gendall", "place": 79, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.05, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -1.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6838", "name": "Riley Schoettler", "place": 81, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.2, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5113", "name": "Evan Iacobelli", "place": 82, "estimated_gap_percent": -1.37, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.464700389884755, "race_score": 7.464700389884755, "sigma": 0.037000000000000005, "uninformative_place_low": 52, "uninformative_place_high": 96, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16368", "key": "oakley|stephenson", "name": "Oakley Stephenson", "team_id": "alberta", "team": "University of Alberta", "team_short": "Alberta", "profile_url": "https://bearsandpandas.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=16368", "roster_url": "https://bearsandpandas.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "corroborated", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "Source-backed identity link supplied.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": null, "team_selection_order": 9, "forecast_status": "unknown", "unknown_reason": "no_current_xc", "place": null, "place_low": null, "place_high": null, "win_probability": null, "basis": { "kind": "historical_pb", "mark": { "event_id": null, "date": "2025-06-07", "race": "ASAA Track and Field Championships", "event": "1500 Metres Outdoor", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.5, "time_s": 257.99, "name_raw": null, "team": null, "source_url": "https://athletics.ca/athlete/oakley-stephenson/", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "Exact name, Alberta provincial affiliation, Calgary Spartans club; university profile matches CalgarySpartans background.", "age_days": 503 } }, "uncertainty": "Current fitness unknown. Shown after supported estimates without a finishing-position claim.", "race_results": [], "personal_bests": [ { "event_id": null, "date": "2025-06-07", "race": "ASAA Track and Field Championships", "event": "1500 Metres Outdoor", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.5, "time_s": 257.99, "name_raw": null, "team": null, "source_url": "https://athletics.ca/athlete/oakley-stephenson/", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "Exact name, Alberta provincial affiliation, Calgary Spartans club; university profile matches CalgarySpartans background.", "age_days": 503 } ], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Unknown current form: no qualifying current XC result.", "Historical background: ASAA Track and Field Championships on 2025-06-07 (1.5 km, 4:18.0). 0 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Older performances are background ability, not evidence of current fitness. A recent XC race can change this status.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "alberta:16360", "name": "Adam Stang", "place": 80, "estimated_gap_percent": null, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16359", "name": "Ethan Randall", "place": 74, "estimated_gap_percent": null, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.465729089718579, "race_score": 7.465729089718579, "sigma": 0.1002648401826484, "uninformative_place_low": 7, "uninformative_place_high": 100, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16370", "key": "jason|ushko", "name": "Jason Ushko", "team_id": "alberta", "team": "University of Alberta", "team_short": "Alberta", "profile_url": "https://bearsandpandas.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=16370", "roster_url": "https://bearsandpandas.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 4, "team_selection_order": 4, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 46, "place_low": 26, "place_high": 75, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1603.0, "name_raw": "USHKO, Jason", "team": "ALBERTA GOLDEN BEARS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1603.0, "name_raw": "USHKO, Jason", "team": "ALBERTA GOLDEN BEARS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "godinos:2026/acac-gp2/Men 8km", "date": "2026-09-19", "race": "ACAC Running Room Grand Prix Series Race #2", "event": "Men 8km", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1771.0, "name_raw": "Jason Ushko", "team": "UofA", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/godinos.com/documents/2026/9/20/ACAC_Grand_Prix__2_Results.pdf", "venue": "Calgary, Alberta (venue not independently verified)", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 34 }, { "event_id": "racestats:2026/tc10k/TC10K", "date": "2026-04-26", "race": "TC10K", "event": "TC10K", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 10.0, "time_s": 2059.0, "name_raw": "Jason Ushko", "team": null, "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 180 }, { "event_id": "slt:2024/usports/Men", "date": "2024-11-09", "race": "U SPORTS Cross-Country Championships", "event": "Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1541.0, "name_raw": "USHKO, Jason", "team": "CALGARY DINOS", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2024/usports/event/Men", "venue": "Kelowna, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 713 }, { "event_id": "uofa:2024/canwestxc/8K - Men", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2024", "event": "8K - Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1618.934, "name_raw": "Jason Ushko", "team": "University of Calgary", "source_url": null, "venue": "Stoney Creek Centre, Camrose, AB", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 }, { "event_id": "smx:2023/usports/Men 8k (University)", "date": "2023-11-12", "race": "U SPORTS Cross Country Championships 2023", "event": "Men 8k (University)", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1595.8, "name_raw": "Jason Ushko", "team": "Alberta Golden Bears", "source_url": "https://live.sportmadesimple.com/meets/28794/events/xc/1031952", "venue": "Thames Valley Golf Club, London, ON", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 1076 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 26:43.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "ubc:13374", "name": "Kai Martland", "place": 44, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.02, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -35.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6615", "name": "Jacob White", "place": 45, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.02, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 1.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13363", "name": "Andrew Corbeil", "place": 47, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.0, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -6.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8075", "name": "Alex Damm", "place": 48, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.13, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.41629267650134, "race_score": 7.41629267650134, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 26, "uninformative_place_high": 75, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16361", "key": "carson|young", "name": "Carson Young", "team_id": "alberta", "team": "University of Alberta", "team_short": "Alberta", "profile_url": "https://bearsandpandas.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=16361", "roster_url": "https://bearsandpandas.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 2, "team_selection_order": 2, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 37, "place_low": 20, "place_high": 69, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1600.0, "name_raw": "YOUNG, Carson", "team": "ALBERTA GOLDEN BEARS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1600.0, "name_raw": "YOUNG, Carson", "team": "ALBERTA GOLDEN BEARS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1681.58, "name_raw": "Carson Young", "team": "Alberta Golden Bears", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1716.9, "name_raw": "Carson Young", "team": "Alberta Golden Bears", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 }, { "event_id": "uofa:2024/canwestxc/8K - Men", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2024", "event": "8K - Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1753.418, "name_raw": "Carson Young", "team": "Alberta Golden Bears/Pandas", "source_url": null, "venue": "Stoney Creek Centre, Camrose, AB", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 }, { "event_id": "ss:2023/acxc/U20 Men 8km", "date": "2023-11-25", "race": "2023 Canadian Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20 Men 8km", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1748.47, "name_raw": "Carson Young", "team": "Edmonton Alberta, AB", "source_url": null, "venue": "Mooney's Bay Park, Ottawa, ON", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 1063 }, { "event_id": "arc:2023/bcxcchamp/U20 Men", "date": "2023-10-14", "race": "BC Athletics Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20 Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1622.3, "name_raw": "Young, Carson", "team": "Grizzly Endurance Collective A", "source_url": null, "venue": "Surrey, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 1105 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 26:40.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "regina:12422", "name": "Jacob Klassen", "place": 35, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.11, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -2.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "regina:12432", "name": "William Barnes", "place": 36, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.09, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 1.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": 2.16, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8070", "name": "Mathias Yuzdepski", "place": 38, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.59, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -51.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6594", "name": "Troy Campbell", "place": 39, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.72, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -10.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": -14.44, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.405869772520221, "race_score": 7.405869772520221, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 20, "uninformative_place_high": 69, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "calgary:17455", "key": "maximilien|cook", "name": "Max Cook", "team_id": "calgary", "team": "University of Calgary", "team_short": "Calgary", "profile_url": "https://godinos.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=17455", "roster_url": "https://godinos.com/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 2, "team_selection_order": 2, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 28, "place_low": 16, "place_high": 63, "win_probability": 5e-05, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1572.0, "name_raw": "COOK, Max", "team": "CALGARY DINOS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1572.0, "name_raw": "COOK, Max", "team": "CALGARY DINOS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "godinos:2026/acac-gp2/Men 8km", "date": "2026-09-19", "race": "ACAC Running Room Grand Prix Series Race #2", "event": "Men 8km", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1744.0, "name_raw": "Max Cook", "team": "UofC", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/godinos.com/documents/2026/9/20/ACAC_Grand_Prix__2_Results.pdf", "venue": "Calgary, Alberta (venue not independently verified)", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 34 }, { "event_id": "alive:2025/usports/8 km - Masculin", "date": "2025-11-08", "race": "U SPORTS Cross Country Championships 2025", "event": "8 km - Masculin", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1585.0, "name_raw": "Max Cook", "team": "University of Calgary", "source_url": null, "venue": "Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 349 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1601.5, "name_raw": "Max Cook", "team": "University of Calgary", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 }, { "event_id": "slt:2024/usports/Men", "date": "2024-11-09", "race": "U SPORTS Cross-Country Championships", "event": "Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1508.0, "name_raw": "COOK, Max", "team": "CALGARY DINOS", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2024/usports/event/Men", "venue": "Kelowna, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 713 }, { "event_id": "uofa:2024/canwestxc/8K - Men", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2024", "event": "8K - Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1585.746, "name_raw": "Max Cook", "team": "University of Calgary", "source_url": null, "venue": "Stoney Creek Centre, Camrose, AB", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 }, { "event_id": "smx:2023/usports/Men 8k (University)", "date": "2023-11-12", "race": "U SPORTS Cross Country Championships 2023", "event": "Men 8k (University)", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1593.8, "name_raw": "Max Cook", "team": "Calgary", "source_url": "https://live.sportmadesimple.com/meets/28794/events/xc/1031952", "venue": "Thames Valley Golf Club, London, ON", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 1076 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 26:12.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "ubc:13386", "name": "Randy Ren", "place": 26, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.24, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6596", "name": "Preston Dodge", "place": 27, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.01, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -15.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6600", "name": "Bennett Friesen", "place": 29, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.03, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -20.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "regina:12421", "name": "Adonias Downes", "place": 30, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.18, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 10.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.398407341723293, "race_score": 7.398407341723293, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 16, "uninformative_place_high": 63, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "calgary:17456", "key": "kai|deausy", "name": "Kai Deausy", "team_id": "calgary", "team": "University of Calgary", "team_short": "Calgary", "profile_url": "https://godinos.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=17456", "roster_url": "https://godinos.com/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 6, "team_selection_order": 6, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 75, "place_low": 57, "place_high": 91, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "godinos:2026/acac-gp4/Men 8km", "date": "2026-10-17", "race": "ACAC XC Grand Prix #4 - CUE Open", "event": "Men 8km", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1728.5, "name_raw": "KAI DEAUSY", "team": "UOFC", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/godinos.com/documents/2026/10/18/Grand_Prix_Results_-_Oct17.pdf", "venue": "Kinsmen Park, Edmonton, Alberta", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 6 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "godinos:2026/acac-gp4/Men 8km", "date": "2026-10-17", "race": "ACAC XC Grand Prix #4 - CUE Open", "event": "Men 8km", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1728.5, "name_raw": "KAI DEAUSY", "team": "UOFC", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/godinos.com/documents/2026/10/18/Grand_Prix_Results_-_Oct17.pdf", "venue": "Kinsmen Park, Edmonton, Alberta", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 6 }, { "event_id": "godinos:2026/acac-gp2/Men 8km", "date": "2026-09-19", "race": "ACAC Running Room Grand Prix Series Race #2", "event": "Men 8km", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1845.0, "name_raw": "Kai Deausy", "team": "UofC", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/godinos.com/documents/2026/9/20/ACAC_Grand_Prix__2_Results.pdf", "venue": "Calgary, Alberta (venue not independently verified)", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 34 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1646.5, "name_raw": "Kai Deausy", "team": "University of Calgary", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: ACAC XC Grand Prix #4 - CUE Open on 2026-10-17 (8 km, 28:48.5). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5115", "name": "Henry Nestmann", "place": 73, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.37, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16359", "name": "Ethan Randall", "place": 74, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.05, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-19", "race": "ACAC Running Room Grand Prix Series Race #2", "gap_s": 34.0, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/godinos.com/documents/2026/9/20/ACAC_Grand_Prix__2_Results.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5116", "name": "Ethan Peregrym", "place": 76, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.27, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "calgary:17463", "name": "Sam Prezio", "place": 77, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.68, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-17", "race": "ACAC XC Grand Prix #4 - CUE Open", "gap_s": -30.34, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/godinos.com/documents/2026/10/18/Grand_Prix_Results_-_Oct17.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.455329486189697, "race_score": 7.455329486189697, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 57, "uninformative_place_high": 91, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "calgary:17458", "key": "edward|healy", "name": "Edward Healy", "team_id": "calgary", "team": "University of Calgary", "team_short": "Calgary", "profile_url": "https://godinos.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=17458", "roster_url": "https://godinos.com/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 4, "team_selection_order": 4, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 50, "place_low": 27, "place_high": 77, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "godinos:2026/acac-gp4/Men 8km", "date": "2026-10-17", "race": "ACAC XC Grand Prix #4 - CUE Open", "event": "Men 8km", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1666.18, "name_raw": "EDWARD HEALY", "team": "UOFC", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/godinos.com/documents/2026/10/18/Grand_Prix_Results_-_Oct17.pdf", "venue": "Kinsmen Park, Edmonton, Alberta", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 6 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "godinos:2026/acac-gp4/Men 8km", "date": "2026-10-17", "race": "ACAC XC Grand Prix #4 - CUE Open", "event": "Men 8km", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1666.18, "name_raw": "EDWARD HEALY", "team": "UOFC", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/godinos.com/documents/2026/10/18/Grand_Prix_Results_-_Oct17.pdf", "venue": "Kinsmen Park, Edmonton, Alberta", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 6 }, { "event_id": "godinos:2026/acac-gp2/Men 8km", "date": "2026-09-19", "race": "ACAC Running Room Grand Prix Series Race #2", "event": "Men 8km", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1776.0, "name_raw": "Edward Healy", "team": "UofC", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/godinos.com/documents/2026/9/20/ACAC_Grand_Prix__2_Results.pdf", "venue": "Calgary, Alberta (venue not independently verified)", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 34 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1649.1, "name_raw": "Edward Healy", "team": "University of Calgary", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 }, { "event_id": "slt:2024/usports/Men", "date": "2024-11-09", "race": "U SPORTS Cross-Country Championships", "event": "Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1533.0, "name_raw": "HEALY, Edward", "team": "CALGARY DINOS", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2024/usports/event/Men", "venue": "Kelowna, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 713 }, { "event_id": "uofa:2024/canwestxc/8K - Men", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2024", "event": "8K - Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1630.206, "name_raw": "Edward Healy", "team": "University of Calgary", "source_url": null, "venue": "Stoney Creek Centre, Camrose, AB", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: ACAC XC Grand Prix #4 - CUE Open on 2026-10-17 (8 km, 27:46.2). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "victoria:8075", "name": "Alex Damm", "place": 48, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.05, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6598", "name": "Colter Folk", "place": 49, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.02, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6833", "name": "Dorian Johnson", "place": 51, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.42, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6607", "name": "Justin Schuler", "place": 52, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.46, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.418103697261978, "race_score": 7.418103697261978, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 27, "uninformative_place_high": 77, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "calgary:17461", "key": "ethan|meyer", "name": "Ethan Meyer", "team_id": "calgary", "team": "University of Calgary", "team_short": "Calgary", "profile_url": "https://godinos.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=17461", "roster_url": "https://godinos.com/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 1, "team_selection_order": 1, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 15, "place_low": 10, "place_high": 49, "win_probability": 0.0004, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1539.0, "name_raw": "MEYER, Ethan", "team": "CALGARY DINOS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1539.0, "name_raw": "MEYER, Ethan", "team": "CALGARY DINOS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "godinos:2026/acac-gp2/Men 8km", "date": "2026-09-19", "race": "ACAC Running Room Grand Prix Series Race #2", "event": "Men 8km", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1727.0, "name_raw": "Ethan Meyer", "team": "UofC", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/godinos.com/documents/2026/9/20/ACAC_Grand_Prix__2_Results.pdf", "venue": "Calgary, Alberta (venue not independently verified)", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 34 }, { "event_id": "alive:2025/usports/8 km - Masculin", "date": "2025-11-08", "race": "U SPORTS Cross Country Championships 2025", "event": "8 km - Masculin", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1537.0, "name_raw": "Ethan Meyer", "team": "University of Calgary", "source_url": null, "venue": "Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 349 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1596.7, "name_raw": "Ethan Meyer", "team": "University of Calgary", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 }, { "event_id": "slt:2024/usports/Men", "date": "2024-11-09", "race": "U SPORTS Cross-Country Championships", "event": "Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1510.0, "name_raw": "MEYER, Ethan", "team": "CALGARY DINOS", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2024/usports/event/Men", "venue": "Kelowna, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 713 }, { "event_id": "uofa:2024/canwestxc/8K - Men", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2024", "event": "8K - Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1629.198, "name_raw": "Ethan Meyer", "team": "University of Calgary", "source_url": null, "venue": "Stoney Creek Centre, Camrose, AB", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 25:39.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "regina:12427", "name": "Alec Teichler", "place": 13, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.19, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -11.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8072", "name": "Rhys Beaudoin", "place": 14, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.02, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -14.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13387", "name": "Ryerson Stockton-Thomas", "place": 16, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.17, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -37.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8098", "name": "James Sikich", "place": 17, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.34, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -55.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.381695979913288, "race_score": 7.381695979913288, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 10, "uninformative_place_high": 49, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "calgary:17463", "key": "samuel|prezio", "name": "Sam Prezio", "team_id": "calgary", "team": "University of Calgary", "team_short": "Calgary", "profile_url": "https://godinos.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=17463", "roster_url": "https://godinos.com/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 7, "team_selection_order": 7, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 77, "place_low": 49, "place_high": 95, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "godinos:2026/acac-gp4/Men 8km", "date": "2026-10-17", "race": "ACAC XC Grand Prix #4 - CUE Open", "event": "Men 8km", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1758.84, "name_raw": "SAM PREZIO", "team": "UOFC", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/godinos.com/documents/2026/10/18/Grand_Prix_Results_-_Oct17.pdf", "venue": "Kinsmen Park, Edmonton, Alberta", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 6 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "godinos:2026/acac-gp4/Men 8km", "date": "2026-10-17", "race": "ACAC XC Grand Prix #4 - CUE Open", "event": "Men 8km", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1758.84, "name_raw": "SAM PREZIO", "team": "UOFC", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/godinos.com/documents/2026/10/18/Grand_Prix_Results_-_Oct17.pdf", "venue": "Kinsmen Park, Edmonton, Alberta", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 6 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1664.0, "name_raw": "Sam Prezio", "team": "University of Calgary", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 }, { "event_id": "uofa:2024/canwestxc/8K - Men", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2024", "event": "8K - Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1672.534, "name_raw": "Sam Prezio", "team": "University of Calgary", "source_url": null, "venue": "Stoney Creek Centre, Camrose, AB", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: ACAC XC Grand Prix #4 - CUE Open on 2026-10-17 (8 km, 29:18.8). 1 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "calgary:17456", "name": "Kai Deausy", "place": 75, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.68, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-17", "race": "ACAC XC Grand Prix #4 - CUE Open", "gap_s": 30.34, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/godinos.com/documents/2026/10/18/Grand_Prix_Results_-_Oct17.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5116", "name": "Ethan Peregrym", "place": 76, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.41, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5105", "name": "Brody Cormier", "place": 78, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.03, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6601", "name": "Ewan Gendall", "place": 79, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.21, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. 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No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.413656844249131, "race_score": 7.413656844249131, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 25, "uninformative_place_high": 74, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "calgary:17464", "key": "quinn|schulz", "name": "Quinn Schulz", "team_id": "calgary", "team": "University of Calgary", "team_short": "Calgary", "profile_url": "https://godinos.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=17464", "roster_url": "https://godinos.com/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 5, "team_selection_order": 5, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 58, "place_low": 23, "place_high": 87, "win_probability": 0.0002, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "godinos:2026/acac-gp2/Men 8km", "date": "2026-09-19", "race": "ACAC Running Room Grand Prix Series Race #2", "event": "Men 8km", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1758.0, "name_raw": "Quinn Schulz", "team": "UofC", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/godinos.com/documents/2026/9/20/ACAC_Grand_Prix__2_Results.pdf", "venue": "Calgary, Alberta (venue not independently verified)", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 34 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "godinos:2026/acac-gp2/Men 8km", "date": "2026-09-19", "race": "ACAC Running Room Grand Prix Series Race #2", "event": "Men 8km", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1758.0, "name_raw": "Quinn Schulz", "team": "UofC", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/godinos.com/documents/2026/9/20/ACAC_Grand_Prix__2_Results.pdf", "venue": "Calgary, Alberta (venue not independently verified)", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 34 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: ACAC Running Room Grand Prix Series Race #2 on 2026-09-19 (8 km, 29:18.0). 1 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "victoria:8073", "name": "Cai Collingwood", "place": 56, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.09, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13362", "name": "Steven Brittain", "place": 57, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.04, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8060", "name": "Dylan Naresh", "place": 59, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.07, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "regina:12426", "name": "Henry Sharp", "place": 60, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.34, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.426597771079015, "race_score": 7.426597771079015, "sigma": 0.037000000000000005, "uninformative_place_low": 23, "uninformative_place_high": 87, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6594", "key": "troy|campbell", "name": "Troy Campbell", "team_id": "saskatchewan", "team": "University of Saskatchewan", "team_short": "Saskatchewan", "profile_url": "https://huskies.usask.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=6594", "roster_url": "https://huskies.usask.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 5, "team_selection_order": 5, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 39, "place_low": 24, "place_high": 73, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1610.0, "name_raw": "CAMPBELL, Troy", "team": "SASKATCHEWAN HUSKIES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1610.0, "name_raw": "CAMPBELL, Troy", "team": "SASKATCHEWAN HUSKIES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1696.02, "name_raw": "Troy Campbell", "team": "Saskatchewan Huskies", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 26:50.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "alberta:16361", "name": "Carson Young", "place": 37, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.72, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 10.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": 14.44, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8070", "name": "Mathias Yuzdepski", "place": 38, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.13, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -41.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "calgary:17469", "name": "Niklas Scherer", "place": 40, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.06, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6837", "name": "Draycen Ralph", "place": 41, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.15, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -14.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": 1.63, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.413093207096599, "race_score": 7.413093207096599, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 24, "uninformative_place_high": 73, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6595", "key": "jayvin|crosschild", "name": "Jayvin Crosschild", "team_id": "saskatchewan", "team": "University of Saskatchewan", "team_short": "Saskatchewan", "profile_url": "https://huskies.usask.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=6595", "roster_url": "https://huskies.usask.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 1, "team_selection_order": 1, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 25, "place_low": 15, "place_high": 61, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1578.0, "name_raw": "CROSS CHILD, Jayvin", "team": "SASKATCHEWAN HUSKIES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1578.0, "name_raw": "CROSS CHILD, Jayvin", "team": "SASKATCHEWAN HUSKIES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1671.5, "name_raw": "Jayvin Cross Child", "team": "Saskatchewan Huskies", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 }, { "event_id": "alive:2025/usports/8 km - Masculin", "date": "2025-11-08", "race": "U SPORTS Cross Country Championships 2025", "event": "8 km - Masculin", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1621.0, "name_raw": "Jayvin Cross child", "team": "Saskatchewan Huskies", "source_url": null, "venue": "Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 349 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1632.7, "name_raw": "Jayvin Cross Child", "team": "Saskatchewan Huskies", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 }, { "event_id": "slt:2024/usports/Men", "date": "2024-11-09", "race": "U SPORTS Cross-Country Championships", "event": "Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1516.0, "name_raw": "CROSS CHILD, Jayvin", "team": "SASKATCHEWAN HUSKIES", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2024/usports/event/Men", "venue": "Kelowna, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 713 }, { "event_id": "uofa:2024/canwestxc/8K - Men", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2024", "event": "8K - Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1653.057, "name_raw": "Jayvin Cross Child", "team": "Saskatchewan Huskies", "source_url": null, "venue": "Stoney Creek Centre, Camrose, AB", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 }, { "event_id": "smx:2023/usports/Men 8k (University)", "date": "2023-11-12", "race": "U SPORTS Cross Country Championships 2023", "event": "Men 8k (University)", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1689.5, "name_raw": "Jayvin Cross Child", "team": "Saskatchewan Huskies", "source_url": "https://live.sportmadesimple.com/meets/28794/events/xc/1031952", "venue": "Thames Valley Golf Club, London, ON", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 1076 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 26:18.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "victoria:8077", "name": "Hayden Woodrow", "place": 23, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.08, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -23.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13385", "name": "Kouken Narbett", "place": 24, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.02, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 5.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13386", "name": "Randy Ren", "place": 26, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.07, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6596", "name": "Preston Dodge", "place": 27, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.29, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -9.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": 1.33, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.395376707354324, "race_score": 7.395376707354324, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 15, "uninformative_place_high": 61, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6596", "key": "preston|dodge", "name": "Preston Dodge", "team_id": "saskatchewan", "team": "University of Saskatchewan", "team_short": "Saskatchewan", "profile_url": "https://huskies.usask.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=6596", "roster_url": "https://huskies.usask.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 2, "team_selection_order": 2, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 27, "place_low": 16, "place_high": 63, "win_probability": 5e-05, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1587.0, "name_raw": "DODGE, Preston", "team": "SASKATCHEWAN HUSKIES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1587.0, "name_raw": "DODGE, Preston", "team": "SASKATCHEWAN HUSKIES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1670.17, "name_raw": "Preston Dodge", "team": "Saskatchewan Huskies", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1720.3, "name_raw": "Preston Dodge", "team": "Saskatchewan Huskies", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 26:27.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6595", "name": "Jayvin Crosschild", "place": 25, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.29, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 9.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": -1.33, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13386", "name": "Randy Ren", "place": 26, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.22, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "calgary:17455", "name": "Max Cook", "place": 28, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.01, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 15.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6600", "name": "Bennett Friesen", "place": 29, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.04, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -5.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": 5.54, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.398289257821939, "race_score": 7.398289257821939, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 16, "uninformative_place_high": 63, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6598", "key": "colter|folk", "name": "Colter Folk", "team_id": "saskatchewan", "team": "University of Saskatchewan", "team_short": "Saskatchewan", "profile_url": "https://huskies.usask.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=6598", "roster_url": "https://huskies.usask.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 7, "team_selection_order": 7, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 49, "place_low": 27, "place_high": 76, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1654.0, "name_raw": "FOLK, Colter", "team": "SASKATCHEWAN HUSKIES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1654.0, "name_raw": "FOLK, Colter", "team": "SASKATCHEWAN HUSKIES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1654.38, "name_raw": "Colter Folk", "team": "Saskatchewan Huskies", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 27:34.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "ubc:13363", "name": "Andrew Corbeil", "place": 47, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.15, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 45.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8075", "name": "Alex Damm", "place": 48, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.03, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "calgary:17458", "name": "Edward Healy", "place": 50, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.02, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6833", "name": "Dorian Johnson", "place": 51, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.45, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.4178777037779104, "race_score": 7.4178777037779104, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 27, "uninformative_place_high": 76, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6600", "key": "bennett|friesen", "name": "Bennett Friesen", "team_id": "saskatchewan", "team": "University of Saskatchewan", "team_short": "Saskatchewan", "profile_url": "https://huskies.usask.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=6600", "roster_url": "https://huskies.usask.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 3, "team_selection_order": 3, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 29, "place_low": 16, "place_high": 63, "win_probability": 0.0001, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1592.0, "name_raw": "FRIESEN, Bennett", "team": "SASKATCHEWAN HUSKIES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1592.0, "name_raw": "FRIESEN, Bennett", "team": "SASKATCHEWAN HUSKIES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1664.63, "name_raw": "Bennett Friesen", "team": "Saskatchewan Huskies", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 }, { "event_id": "alive:2025/usports/8 km - Masculin", "date": "2025-11-08", "race": "U SPORTS Cross Country Championships 2025", "event": "8 km - Masculin", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1637.0, "name_raw": "Bennett Friesen", "team": "Saskatchewan Huskies", "source_url": null, "venue": "Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 349 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1645.8, "name_raw": "Bennett Friesen", "team": "Saskatchewan Huskies", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 26:32.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6596", "name": "Preston Dodge", "place": 27, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.04, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 5.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": -5.54, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "calgary:17455", "name": "Max Cook", "place": 28, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.03, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 20.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "regina:12421", "name": "Adonias Downes", "place": 30, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.15, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 30.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": -49.02, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6830", "name": "Luxton Dueck", "place": 31, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.25, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -15.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": 2.55, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.398666672382377, "race_score": 7.398666672382377, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 16, "uninformative_place_high": 63, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6601", "key": "ewan|gendall", "name": "Ewan Gendall", "team_id": "saskatchewan", "team": "University of Saskatchewan", "team_short": "Saskatchewan", "profile_url": "https://huskies.usask.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=6601", "roster_url": "https://huskies.usask.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 11, "team_selection_order": 11, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 79, "place_low": 64, "place_high": 93, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1702.0, "name_raw": "GENDALL, Ewan", "team": "SASKATCHEWAN HUSKIES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1702.0, "name_raw": "GENDALL, Ewan", "team": "SASKATCHEWAN HUSKIES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1774.38, "name_raw": "Ewan Gendall", "team": "Saskatchewan Huskies", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 28:22.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "calgary:17463", "name": "Sam Prezio", "place": 77, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.21, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5105", "name": "Brody Cormier", "place": 78, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.18, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 18.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16360", "name": "Adam Stang", "place": 80, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.05, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 1.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6838", "name": "Riley Schoettler", "place": 81, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.24, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": 0.26, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.464210770703565, "race_score": 7.464210770703565, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 64, "uninformative_place_high": 93, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6603", "key": "logan|kaban", "name": "Logan Kaban", "team_id": "saskatchewan", "team": "University of Saskatchewan", "team_short": "Saskatchewan", "profile_url": "https://huskies.usask.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=6603", "roster_url": "https://huskies.usask.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 9, "team_selection_order": 9, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 68, "place_low": 42, "place_high": 86, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1655.0, "name_raw": "KABAN, Logan", "team": "SASKATCHEWAN HUSKIES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1655.0, "name_raw": "KABAN, Logan", "team": "SASKATCHEWAN HUSKIES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1733.67, "name_raw": "Logan Kaban", "team": "Saskatchewan Huskies", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1732.5, "name_raw": "Logan Kaban", "team": "Saskatchewan Huskies", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 }, { "event_id": "uofa:2024/canwestxc/8K - Men", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2024", "event": "8K - Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1712.168, "name_raw": "Logan Kaban", "team": "Saskatchewan Huskies", "source_url": null, "venue": "Stoney Creek Centre, Camrose, AB", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 27:35.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "ubc:13371", "name": "Max Holmes", "place": 66, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.36, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -16.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6836", "name": "Joshua Malenchak", "place": 67, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.19, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": 14.84, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16367", "name": "Noah Heuver", "place": 69, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.06, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": 32.51, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6610", "name": "Markus Thompson", "place": 70, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.08, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -3.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.438258827971592, "race_score": 7.438258827971592, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 42, "uninformative_place_high": 86, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6607", "key": "justin|schuler", "name": "Justin Schuler", "team_id": "saskatchewan", "team": "University of Saskatchewan", "team_short": "Saskatchewan", "profile_url": "https://huskies.usask.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=6607", "roster_url": "https://huskies.usask.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 8, "team_selection_order": 8, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 52, "place_low": 30, "place_high": 79, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1620.0, "name_raw": "SCHULER, Justin", "team": "SASKATCHEWAN HUSKIES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1620.0, "name_raw": "SCHULER, Justin", "team": "SASKATCHEWAN HUSKIES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1720.33, "name_raw": "Justin Schuler", "team": "Saskatchewan Huskies", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1682.3, "name_raw": "Justin Schuler", "team": "Saskatchewan Huskies", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 }, { "event_id": "smx:2024/acxc/U20 Men 8k (U20)", "date": "2024-12-01", "race": "2024 Canadian Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20 Men 8k (U20)", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1685.6, "name_raw": "Justin Schuler", "team": "Running Wild Athletics Club", "source_url": null, "venue": "Fanshawe Golf Course, London, ON", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 691 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 27:00.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "calgary:17458", "name": "Edward Healy", "place": 50, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.46, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6833", "name": "Dorian Johnson", "place": 51, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.04, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8052", "name": "Mitchell Klassen", "place": 53, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.02, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13370", "name": "Miles Graham", "place": 54, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.13, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -39.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.422726035971983, "race_score": 7.422726035971983, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 30, "uninformative_place_high": 79, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6609", "key": "colin|stock", "name": "Colin Stock", "team_id": "saskatchewan", "team": "University of Saskatchewan", "team_short": "Saskatchewan", "profile_url": "https://huskies.usask.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=6609", "roster_url": "https://huskies.usask.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 4, "team_selection_order": 4, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 33, "place_low": 19, "place_high": 67, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1599.0, "name_raw": "STOCK, Colin", "team": "SASKATCHEWAN HUSKIES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1599.0, "name_raw": "STOCK, Colin", "team": "SASKATCHEWAN HUSKIES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1672.81, "name_raw": "Colin Stock", "team": "Saskatchewan Huskies", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 26:39.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "manitoba:6830", "name": "Luxton Dueck", "place": 31, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.21, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -8.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": 10.73, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8055", "name": "Mackenzie Lascelle", "place": 32, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.02, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5110", "name": "Ethan Nozick", "place": 34, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.04, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 4.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "regina:12422", "name": "Jacob Klassen", "place": 35, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.15, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -3.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.4032742658000705, "race_score": 7.4032742658000705, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 19, "uninformative_place_high": 67, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6610", "key": "markus|thompson", "name": "Markus Thompson", "team_id": "saskatchewan", "team": "University of Saskatchewan", "team_short": "Saskatchewan", "profile_url": "https://huskies.usask.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=6610", "roster_url": "https://huskies.usask.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 10, "team_selection_order": 10, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 70, "place_low": 31, "place_high": 91, "win_probability": 5e-05, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1658.0, "name_raw": "THOMPSON, Markus", "team": "SASKATCHEWAN HUSKIES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1658.0, "name_raw": "THOMPSON, Markus", "team": "SASKATCHEWAN HUSKIES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 27:38.0). 1 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6603", "name": "Logan Kaban", "place": 68, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.08, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 3.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16367", "name": "Noah Heuver", "place": 69, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.02, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5111", "name": "Basil Parkins", "place": 71, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.83, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -22.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "regina:12436", "name": "Kristian Richards", "place": 72, "estimated_gap_percent": -1.1, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -16.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.439096133184729, "race_score": 7.439096133184729, "sigma": 0.037000000000000005, "uninformative_place_low": 31, "uninformative_place_high": 91, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6613", "key": "mateo|trejomonroy", "name": "Jose Mateo Trejo Monroy", "team_id": "saskatchewan", "team": "University of Saskatchewan", "team_short": "Saskatchewan", "profile_url": "https://huskies.usask.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=6613", "roster_url": "https://huskies.usask.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "Full-name roster Jose Mateo Trejo Monroy best matches Mateo Trejo Monroy: same distinctive surnames, Saskatchewan Huskies fall race rows, Saskatoon profile/race history.", "identity_alternatives": "National federation ranking includes a Guatemala listing with same-name athlete; prefer the university-linked Saskatchewan race identity and Canadian World Athletics profile, retaining inferred status.", "identity_source_url": "https://worldathletics.org/athletes/canada/mateo-trejo-monroy-15127690", "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 12, "team_selection_order": 12, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 83, "place_low": 78, "place_high": 97, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1740.0, "name_raw": "TREJO MONROY, Mateo", "team": "SASKATCHEWAN HUSKIES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "source name only; no roster binding", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1740.0, "name_raw": "TREJO MONROY, Mateo", "team": "SASKATCHEWAN HUSKIES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "source name only; no roster binding", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1809.38, "name_raw": "Mateo Trejo Monroy", "team": "Saskatchewan Huskies", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 29:00.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "manitoba:6838", "name": "Riley Schoettler", "place": 81, "estimated_gap_percent": 1.87, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": 35.26, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5113", "name": "Evan Iacobelli", "place": 82, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.67, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "regina:12435", "name": "Rhys Naughton", "place": 84, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.21, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": -8.58, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6829", "name": "Alejandro Civetta", "place": 85, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.4, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": -18.02, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.485201410980847, "race_score": 7.485201410980847, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 78, "uninformative_place_high": 97, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6615", "key": "jacob|white", "name": "Jacob White", "team_id": "saskatchewan", "team": "University of Saskatchewan", "team_short": "Saskatchewan", "profile_url": "https://huskies.usask.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=6615", "roster_url": "https://huskies.usask.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 6, "team_selection_order": 6, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 45, "place_low": 26, "place_high": 75, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1602.0, "name_raw": "WHITE, Jacob", "team": "SASKATCHEWAN HUSKIES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1602.0, "name_raw": "WHITE, Jacob", "team": "SASKATCHEWAN HUSKIES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1719.5, "name_raw": "Jacob White", "team": "Saskatchewan Huskies", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 }, { "event_id": "alive:2025/usports/8 km - Masculin", "date": "2025-11-08", "race": "U SPORTS Cross Country Championships 2025", "event": "8 km - Masculin", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1624.0, "name_raw": "Jacob White", "team": "Saskatchewan Huskies", "source_url": null, "venue": "Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 349 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1644.8, "name_raw": "Jacob White", "team": "Saskatchewan Huskies", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 }, { "event_id": "slt:2024/usports/Men", "date": "2024-11-09", "race": "U SPORTS Cross-Country Championships", "event": "Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1503.0, "name_raw": "WHITE, Jacob", "team": "SASKATCHEWAN HUSKIES", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2024/usports/event/Men", "venue": "Kelowna, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 713 }, { "event_id": "uofa:2024/canwestxc/8K - Men", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2024", "event": "8K - Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1619.661, "name_raw": "Jacob White", "team": "Saskatchewan Huskies", "source_url": null, "venue": "Stoney Creek Centre, Camrose, AB", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 26:42.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "alberta:16371", "name": "Ben House", "place": 43, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.08, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -11.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13374", "name": "Kai Martland", "place": 44, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.0, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -36.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16370", "name": "Jason Ushko", "place": 46, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.02, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -1.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13363", "name": "Andrew Corbeil", "place": 47, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.02, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -7.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.416128110514292, "race_score": 7.416128110514292, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 26, "uninformative_place_high": 75, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6828", "key": "nicolas|bergen", "name": "Nicolas Bergen", "team_id": "manitoba", "team": "University of Manitoba", "team_short": "Manitoba", "profile_url": "https://gobisons.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=6828", "roster_url": "https://gobisons.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "Exact name, Manitoba provincial affiliation, Bison Athletics Club and Winnipeg competitions agree with current Manitoba university profile.", "identity_alternatives": "No alternative athlete profile with stronger name and club match found.", "identity_source_url": "https://athletics.ca/athlete/nicolas-bergen/", "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": null, "team_selection_order": 11, "forecast_status": "unknown", "unknown_reason": "no_current_xc", "place": null, "place_low": null, "place_high": null, "win_probability": null, "basis": { "kind": "historical_pb", "mark": { "event_id": null, "date": "2026-06-27", "race": "Manitoba Provincial Age Class Championships", "event": "1500 Metres Outdoor", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.5, "time_s": 252.73, "name_raw": null, "team": null, "source_url": "https://athletics.ca/athlete/nicolas-bergen/", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 118 } }, "uncertainty": "Current fitness unknown. Shown after supported estimates without a finishing-position claim.", "race_results": [], "personal_bests": [ { "event_id": null, "date": "2024-01-20", "race": "WOA Winter Open", "event": "1500 Metres Indoor", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.5, "time_s": 266.07, "name_raw": null, "team": null, "source_url": "https://athletics.ca/athlete/nicolas-bergen/", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 1007 }, { "event_id": null, "date": "2026-06-27", "race": "Manitoba Provincial Age Class Championships", "event": "1500 Metres Outdoor", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.5, "time_s": 252.73, "name_raw": null, "team": null, "source_url": "https://athletics.ca/athlete/nicolas-bergen/", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 118 }, { "event_id": null, "date": "2023-03-04", "race": "Boeing Indoor Classic", "event": "3000 Metres Indoor", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 3.0, "time_s": 600.29, "name_raw": null, "team": null, "source_url": "https://athletics.ca/athlete/nicolas-bergen/", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 1329 }, { "event_id": null, "date": "2024-06-08", "race": "MHSAA Provincial Track & Field Championships", "event": "3000 Metres Outdoor", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 3.0, "time_s": 561.69, "name_raw": null, "team": null, "source_url": "https://athletics.ca/athlete/nicolas-bergen/", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 867 } ], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Unknown current form: no qualifying current XC result.", "Historical background: Manitoba Provincial Age Class Championships on 2026-06-27 (1.5 km, 4:12.7). 0 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Older performances are background ability, not evidence of current fitness. A recent XC race can change this status.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "manitoba:6836", "name": "Joshua Malenchak", "place": 67, "estimated_gap_percent": null, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6838", "name": "Riley Schoettler", "place": 81, "estimated_gap_percent": null, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.446475409331012, "race_score": 7.446475409331012, "sigma": 0.0809269406392694, "uninformative_place_low": 8, "uninformative_place_high": 99, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6829", "key": "alejandro|civetta", "name": "Alejandro Civetta", "team_id": "manitoba", "team": "University of Manitoba", "team_short": "Manitoba", "profile_url": "https://gobisons.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=6829", "roster_url": "https://gobisons.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 9, "team_selection_order": 9, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 85, "place_low": 80, "place_high": 97, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1827.4, "name_raw": "Alejandro Civetta", "team": "Manitoba Bisons", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1827.4, "name_raw": "Alejandro Civetta", "team": "Manitoba Bisons", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 }, { "event_id": "tfrrs:2026/xc28657/Men8000m", "date": "2026-09-19", "race": "St. Olaf Invitational", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1738.5, "name_raw": "Alejandro Civetta", "team": "U of Manitoba", "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28657/St_Olaf_Invitational", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 34 }, { "event_id": "slt:2024/usports/Men", "date": "2024-11-09", "race": "U SPORTS Cross-Country Championships", "event": "Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1587.0, "name_raw": "CIVETTA, Alejandro", "team": "MANITOBA BISONS", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2024/usports/event/Men", "venue": "Kelowna, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 713 }, { "event_id": "uofa:2024/canwestxc/8K - Men", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2024", "event": "8K - Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1750.041, "name_raw": "Alejandro Civetta", "team": "Manitoba Bisons", "source_url": null, "venue": "Stoney Creek Centre, Camrose, AB", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": { "profile_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/123199420", "strava_id": "123199420", "identity_status": "inferred_strongest_available_match", "identity_confidence": "medium-low", "identity_basis": { "status": "inferred_strongest_available_match", "confidence": "medium-low", "confidence_is": "Qualitative evidence assessment; not a calibrated probability.", "strava_id": "123199420", "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/123199420", "basis": { "display_name": "Alejandro Civetta", "location": " Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada", "clubs": [], "bio": { "owner_id": "123199420", "scope": "profile-bio", "text": "I made it into a Nico Schultz edit" } }, "alternatives": [], "selection_rule": "Explicit corresponding XC/track club or bio, then matching locale, then visible running history; no selection by forecast error." }, "capture_complete": false, "recent28_km": null, "previous56_km": null, "logged_weekly_km28": null, "run_days28": null, "runs28": null, "longest28_km": null, "latest_visible_run": null, "weeks": [ { "start": "2026-09-14", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-21", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-09-21", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-28", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-09-28", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-05", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-05", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-12", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-12", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-19", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-19", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "partial": true, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] } ], "observation_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "sessions": [], "limitation": "Visible uploaded running only; missing uploads, private activities and unrecorded training remain unknown. Empty calendar bins do not establish rest or injury.", "window_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "capture_fresh": true, "calendar_capture_complete": false, "collection_status": "fresh" }, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: Dakota Classic on 2026-09-26 (8 km, 30:27.4). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6613", "name": "Jose Mateo Trejo Monroy", "place": 83, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.4, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": 18.02, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "regina:12435", "name": "Rhys Naughton", "place": 84, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.19, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": 9.44, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "regina:12433", "name": "Ayden Bradley", "place": 86, "estimated_gap_percent": -2.08, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": -32.58, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6832", "name": "Tristan Gudmundson", "place": 87, "estimated_gap_percent": -5.51, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": -97.74, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "race": "St. Olaf Invitational", "gap_s": -111.2, "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28657/St_Olaf_Invitational", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.48919644129534, "race_score": 7.48919644129534, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 80, "uninformative_place_high": 97, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6830", "key": "luxton|dueck", "name": "Luxton Dueck", "team_id": "manitoba", "team": "University of Manitoba", "team_short": "Manitoba", "profile_url": "https://gobisons.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=6830", "roster_url": "https://gobisons.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 4, "team_selection_order": 4, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 31, "place_low": 17, "place_high": 65, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1607.0, "name_raw": "DUECK, Luxton", "team": "MANITOBA BISONS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1607.0, "name_raw": "DUECK, Luxton", "team": "MANITOBA BISONS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1662.08, "name_raw": "Luxton Dueck", "team": "Manitoba Bisons", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 }, { "event_id": "tfrrs:2026/xc28657/Men8000m", "date": "2026-09-19", "race": "St. Olaf Invitational", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1588.7, "name_raw": "Luxton Duck", "team": "U of Manitoba", "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28657/St_Olaf_Invitational", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 34 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 26:47.0). 3 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6600", "name": "Bennett Friesen", "place": 29, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.25, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 15.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": -2.55, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "regina:12421", "name": "Adonias Downes", "place": 30, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.1, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 45.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": -51.57, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8055", "name": "Mackenzie Lascelle", "place": 32, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.2, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6609", "name": "Colin Stock", "place": 33, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.21, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 8.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": -10.73, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.401156768251083, "race_score": 7.401156768251083, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 17, "uninformative_place_high": 65, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6831", "key": "luc|fillion", "name": "Luc Fillion", "team_id": "manitoba", "team": "University of Manitoba", "team_short": "Manitoba", "profile_url": "https://gobisons.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=6831", "roster_url": "https://gobisons.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 1, "team_selection_order": 1, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 9, "place_low": 7, "place_high": 40, "win_probability": 0.00155, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1563.0, "name_raw": "FILLION, Luc", "team": "MANITOBA BISONS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1563.0, "name_raw": "FILLION, Luc", "team": "MANITOBA BISONS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1584.16, "name_raw": "Luc Fillion", "team": "Manitoba Bisons", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 }, { "event_id": "tfrrs:2026/xc28657/Men8000m", "date": "2026-09-19", "race": "St. Olaf Invitational", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1567.9, "name_raw": "Luc Fillion", "team": "U of Manitoba", "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28657/St_Olaf_Invitational", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 34 }, { "event_id": "alive:2025/usports/8 km - Masculin", "date": "2025-11-08", "race": "U SPORTS Cross Country Championships 2025", "event": "8 km - Masculin", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1571.0, "name_raw": "Luc Fillion", "team": "Manitoba Bisons", "source_url": null, "venue": "Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 349 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1633.8, "name_raw": "Luc Fillion", "team": "Manitoba Bisons", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": { "profile_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/118142308", "strava_id": "118142308", "identity_status": "inferred_strongest_available_match", "identity_confidence": "medium-low", "identity_basis": { "status": "inferred_strongest_available_match", "confidence": "medium-low", "confidence_is": "Qualitative evidence assessment; not a calibrated probability.", "strava_id": "118142308", "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/118142308", "basis": { "display_name": "Luc Fillion", "location": " Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada", "clubs": [], "bio": null }, "alternatives": [], "selection_rule": "Explicit corresponding XC/track club or bio, then matching locale, then visible running history; no selection by forecast error." }, "capture_complete": false, "recent28_km": null, "previous56_km": null, "logged_weekly_km28": null, "run_days28": null, "runs28": null, "longest28_km": null, "latest_visible_run": null, "weeks": [ { "start": "2026-09-14", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-21", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-09-21", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-28", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-09-28", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-05", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-05", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-12", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-12", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-19", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-19", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "partial": true, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] } ], "observation_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "sessions": [], "limitation": "Visible uploaded running only; missing uploads, private activities and unrecorded training remain unknown. Empty calendar bins do not establish rest or injury.", "window_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "capture_fresh": true, "calendar_capture_complete": false, "collection_status": "fresh" }, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 26:03.0). 3 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "victoria:8067", "name": "Jack Screen", "place": 7, "estimated_gap_percent": 1.19, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "regina:12425", "name": "Brett MacLean", "place": 8, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.98, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 20.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": -6.43, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8051", "name": "Nolan Galloway", "place": 10, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.01, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8048", "name": "Mitchell Erickson", "place": 11, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.07, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.371038056387548, "race_score": 7.371038056387548, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 7, "uninformative_place_high": 40, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6832", "key": "tristan|gudmundson", "name": "Tristan Gudmundson", "team_id": "manitoba", "team": "University of Manitoba", "team_short": "Manitoba", "profile_url": "https://gobisons.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=6832", "roster_url": "https://gobisons.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "Exact full name and U of Manitoba team in current fall primary race, matching current university roster.", "identity_alternatives": "No competing same-name team-bound profile found.", "identity_source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28657/St_Olaf_Invitational", "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 10, "team_selection_order": 10, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 87, "place_low": 95, "place_high": 100, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1925.14, "name_raw": "Tristan Gudmundson", "team": "Manitoba Bisons", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1925.14, "name_raw": "Tristan Gudmundson", "team": "Manitoba Bisons", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 }, { "event_id": "tfrrs:2026/xc28657/Men8000m", "date": "2026-09-19", "race": "St. Olaf Invitational", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1849.7, "name_raw": "Tristan Gudmundson", "team": "U of Manitoba", "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28657/St_Olaf_Invitational", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 34 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: Dakota Classic on 2026-09-26 (8 km, 32:05.1). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "manitoba:6829", "name": "Alejandro Civetta", "place": 85, "estimated_gap_percent": 5.83, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": 97.74, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "race": "St. Olaf Invitational", "gap_s": 111.2, "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28657/St_Olaf_Invitational", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "regina:12433", "name": "Ayden Bradley", "place": 86, "estimated_gap_percent": 3.63, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": 65.16, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.545865007270925, "race_score": 7.545865007270925, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 95, "uninformative_place_high": 100, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6833", "key": "dorian|johnson", "name": "Dorian Johnson", "team_id": "manitoba", "team": "University of Manitoba", "team_short": "Manitoba", "profile_url": "https://gobisons.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=6833", "roster_url": "https://gobisons.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "Exact full name and U of Manitoba team in current fall primary race, matching current university roster.", "identity_alternatives": "Other Dorian Johnson sport profiles do not match Manitoba XC.", "identity_source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28657/St_Olaf_Invitational", "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 6, "team_selection_order": 6, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 51, "place_low": 20, "place_high": 86, "win_probability": 0.0001, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "tfrrs:2026/xc28657/Men8000m", "date": "2026-09-19", "race": "St. Olaf Invitational", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1633.2, "name_raw": "Dorian Johnson", "team": "U of Manitoba", "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28657/St_Olaf_Invitational", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 34 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "tfrrs:2026/xc28657/Men8000m", "date": "2026-09-19", "race": "St. Olaf Invitational", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1633.2, "name_raw": "Dorian Johnson", "team": "U of Manitoba", "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28657/St_Olaf_Invitational", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 34 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: St. Olaf Invitational on 2026-09-19 (8 km, 27:13.2). 1 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6598", "name": "Colter Folk", "place": 49, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.45, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "calgary:17458", "name": "Edward Healy", "place": 50, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.43, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6607", "name": "Justin Schuler", "place": 52, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.04, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8052", "name": "Mitchell Klassen", "place": 53, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.06, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.422356423684362, "race_score": 7.422356423684362, "sigma": 0.037000000000000005, "uninformative_place_low": 20, "uninformative_place_high": 86, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6834", "key": "carson|kroeker", "name": "Carson Kroeker", "team_id": "manitoba", "team": "University of Manitoba", "team_short": "Manitoba", "profile_url": "https://gobisons.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=6834", "roster_url": "https://gobisons.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 2, "team_selection_order": 2, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 20, "place_low": 12, "place_high": 55, "win_probability": 5e-05, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1583.0, "name_raw": "KROEKER, Carson", "team": "MANITOBA BISONS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1583.0, "name_raw": "KROEKER, Carson", "team": "MANITOBA BISONS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1656.94, "name_raw": "Carson Kroeker", "team": "Manitoba Bisons", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 }, { "event_id": "tfrrs:2026/xc28657/Men8000m", "date": "2026-09-19", "race": "St. Olaf Invitational", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1557.8, "name_raw": "Carson Kroeker", "team": "U of Manitoba", "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28657/St_Olaf_Invitational", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 34 }, { "event_id": "alive:2025/usports/8 km - Masculin", "date": "2025-11-08", "race": "U SPORTS Cross Country Championships 2025", "event": "8 km - Masculin", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1596.0, "name_raw": "Carson Kroeker", "team": "Manitoba Bisons", "source_url": null, "venue": "Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 349 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1650.1, "name_raw": "Carson Kroeker", "team": "Manitoba Bisons", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 }, { "event_id": "slt:2024/usports/Men", "date": "2024-11-09", "race": "U SPORTS Cross-Country Championships", "event": "Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1543.0, "name_raw": "KROEKER, Carson", "team": "MANITOBA BISONS", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2024/usports/event/Men", "venue": "Kelowna, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 713 }, { "event_id": "uofa:2024/canwestxc/8K - Men", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2024", "event": "8K - Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1689.153, "name_raw": "Carson Kroeker", "team": "Manitoba Bisons", "source_url": null, "venue": "Stoney Creek Centre, Camrose, AB", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 }, { "event_id": "smx:2023/usports/Men 8k (University)", "date": "2023-11-12", "race": "U SPORTS Cross Country Championships 2023", "event": "Men 8k (University)", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1637.9, "name_raw": "Carson Kroeker", "team": "Manitoba Bison", "source_url": "https://live.sportmadesimple.com/meets/28794/events/xc/1031952", "venue": "Thames Valley Golf Club, London, ON", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 1076 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 26:23.0). 3 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "alberta:16357", "name": "Ben Higham", "place": 18, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.21, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 10.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13365", "name": "James Doughty", "place": 19, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.01, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 19.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6835", "name": "Jonah Leppelmann", "place": 21, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.06, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -3.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": 28.15, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "race": "St. Olaf Invitational", "gap_s": -29.9, "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28657/St_Olaf_Invitational", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8076", "name": "Brendan O'Brien", "place": 22, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.34, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -6.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.3885884788734115, "race_score": 7.3885884788734115, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 12, "uninformative_place_high": 55, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6835", "key": "jonah|leppelmann", "name": "Jonah Leppelmann", "team_id": "manitoba", "team": "University of Manitoba", "team_short": "Manitoba", "profile_url": "https://gobisons.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=6835", "roster_url": "https://gobisons.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 3, "team_selection_order": 3, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 21, "place_low": 12, "place_high": 55, "win_probability": 0.0001, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1586.0, "name_raw": "LEPPELMANN, Jonah", "team": "MANITOBA BISONS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1586.0, "name_raw": "LEPPELMANN, Jonah", "team": "MANITOBA BISONS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1628.79, "name_raw": "Jonah Leppelmann", "team": "Manitoba Bisons", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 }, { "event_id": "tfrrs:2026/xc28657/Men8000m", "date": "2026-09-19", "race": "St. Olaf Invitational", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1587.7, "name_raw": "Jonah Leppelmann", "team": "U of Manitoba", "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28657/St_Olaf_Invitational", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 34 }, { "event_id": "alive:2025/usports/8 km - Masculin", "date": "2025-11-08", "race": "U SPORTS Cross Country Championships 2025", "event": "8 km - Masculin", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1635.0, "name_raw": "Jonah Leppelmann", "team": "Manitoba Bisons", "source_url": null, "venue": "Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 349 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1688.8, "name_raw": "Jonah Leppelmann", "team": "Manitoba Bisons", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 }, { "event_id": "slt:2024/usports/Men", "date": "2024-11-09", "race": "U SPORTS Cross-Country Championships", "event": "Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1575.0, "name_raw": "LEPPELMANN, Jonah", "team": "MANITOBA BISONS", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2024/usports/event/Men", "venue": "Kelowna, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 713 }, { "event_id": "uofa:2024/canwestxc/8K - Men", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2024", "event": "8K - Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1722.198, "name_raw": "Jonah Leppelmann", "team": "Manitoba Bisons", "source_url": null, "venue": "Stoney Creek Centre, Camrose, AB", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 26:26.0). 3 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "ubc:13365", "name": "James Doughty", "place": 19, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.07, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 22.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6834", "name": "Carson Kroeker", "place": 20, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.06, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 3.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": -28.15, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "race": "St. Olaf Invitational", "gap_s": 29.9, "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28657/St_Olaf_Invitational", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8076", "name": "Brendan O'Brien", "place": 22, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.28, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -3.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8077", "name": "Hayden Woodrow", "place": 23, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.54, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -15.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.389195334293023, "race_score": 7.389195334293023, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 12, "uninformative_place_high": 55, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6836", "key": "joshua|malenchak", "name": "Joshua Malenchak", "team_id": "manitoba", "team": "University of Manitoba", "team_short": "Manitoba", "profile_url": "https://gobisons.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=6836", "roster_url": "https://gobisons.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "Joshua on current Manitoba roster; Josh Malenchak on primary fall results with same university and established Manitoba race history. Name abbreviation inferred.", "identity_alternatives": "Do not treat graduation/eligibility labels on external aggregators as roster exclusion; user assumes roster membership.", "identity_source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28657/St_Olaf_Invitational", "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 7, "team_selection_order": 7, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 67, "place_low": 41, "place_high": 85, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1718.83, "name_raw": "Josh Malenchak", "team": "Manitoba Bisons", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1718.83, "name_raw": "Josh Malenchak", "team": "Manitoba Bisons", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 }, { "event_id": "tfrrs:2026/xc28657/Men8000m", "date": "2026-09-19", "race": "St. Olaf Invitational", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1665.4, "name_raw": "Josh Malenchak", "team": "U of Manitoba", "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28657/St_Olaf_Invitational", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 34 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: Dakota Classic on 2026-09-26 (8 km, 28:38.8). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "ubc:13382", "name": "Noah Smith", "place": 65, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.26, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13371", "name": "Max Holmes", "place": 66, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.17, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6603", "name": "Logan Kaban", "place": 68, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.19, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": -14.84, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16367", "name": "Noah Heuver", "place": 69, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.25, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": 17.67, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.436382628166755, "race_score": 7.436382628166755, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 41, "uninformative_place_high": 85, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6837", "key": "draycen|ralph", "name": "Draycen Ralph", "team_id": "manitoba", "team": "University of Manitoba", "team_short": "Manitoba", "profile_url": "https://gobisons.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=6837", "roster_url": "https://gobisons.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 5, "team_selection_order": 5, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 41, "place_low": 25, "place_high": 75, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1624.0, "name_raw": "RALPH, Draycen", "team": "MANITOBA BISONS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1624.0, "name_raw": "RALPH, Draycen", "team": "MANITOBA BISONS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1694.39, "name_raw": "Draycen Ralph", "team": "Manitoba Bisons", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 }, { "event_id": "tfrrs:2026/xc28657/Men8000m", "date": "2026-09-19", "race": "St. Olaf Invitational", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1606.7, "name_raw": "Draycen Ralph", "team": "U of Manitoba", "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28657/St_Olaf_Invitational", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 34 }, { "event_id": "alive:2025/usports/8 km - Masculin", "date": "2025-11-08", "race": "U SPORTS Cross Country Championships 2025", "event": "8 km - Masculin", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1684.0, "name_raw": "Draycen Ralph", "team": "Manitoba Bisons", "source_url": null, "venue": "Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 349 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1695.1, "name_raw": "Draycen Ralph", "team": "Manitoba Bisons", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 27:04.0). 3 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6594", "name": "Troy Campbell", "place": 39, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.15, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 14.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": -1.63, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "calgary:17469", "name": "Niklas Scherer", "place": 40, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.09, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13384", "name": "Rian Wilson", "place": 42, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.03, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16371", "name": "Ben House", "place": 43, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.07, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 11.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.414603650197597, "race_score": 7.414603650197597, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 25, "uninformative_place_high": 75, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6838", "key": "riley|schoettler", "name": "Riley Schoettler", "team_id": "manitoba", "team": "University of Manitoba", "team_short": "Manitoba", "profile_url": "https://gobisons.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=6838", "roster_url": "https://gobisons.ca/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "Current Manitoba roster Riley Schoettler matches Riley Schoetller in St Olaf and exact Riley Schoettler in Dakota primary PDF, both Manitoba team; timer spelling variation inferred.", "identity_alternatives": "Unrelated Peace River employment profile is a weaker match than team-bound race identity.", "identity_source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28657/St_Olaf_Invitational", "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 8, "team_selection_order": 8, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 81, "place_low": 65, "place_high": 94, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1774.12, "name_raw": "Riley Schoettler", "team": "Manitoba Bisons", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1774.12, "name_raw": "Riley Schoettler", "team": "Manitoba Bisons", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 }, { "event_id": "tfrrs:2026/xc28657/Men8000m", "date": "2026-09-19", "race": "St. Olaf Invitational", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1713.8, "name_raw": "Riley Schoetller", "team": "U of Manitoba", "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28657/St_Olaf_Invitational", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 34 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: Dakota Classic on 2026-09-26 (8 km, 29:34.1). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6601", "name": "Ewan Gendall", "place": 79, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.24, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": -0.26, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16360", "name": "Adam Stang", "place": 80, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.2, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5113", "name": "Evan Iacobelli", "place": 82, "estimated_gap_percent": -1.18, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6613", "name": "Jose Mateo Trejo Monroy", "place": 83, "estimated_gap_percent": -1.84, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": -35.26, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.466653806138952, "race_score": 7.466653806138952, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 65, "uninformative_place_high": 94, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "regina:12432", "key": "william|barnes", "name": "William Barnes", "team_id": "regina", "team": "University of Regina", "team_short": "Regina", "profile_url": "https://cougarsandrams.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=12432", "roster_url": "https://www.reginacougars.com/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 6, "team_selection_order": 6, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 36, "place_low": 19, "place_high": 68, "win_probability": 0.0001, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1599.0, "name_raw": "BARNES, William", "team": "REGINA COUGARS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1599.0, "name_raw": "BARNES, William", "team": "REGINA COUGARS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1679.42, "name_raw": "William Barnes", "team": "Regina Cougars", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 26:39.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5110", "name": "Ethan Nozick", "place": 34, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.13, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 4.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "regina:12422", "name": "Jacob Klassen", "place": 35, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.02, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -3.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16361", "name": "Carson Young", "place": 37, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.09, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -1.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": -2.16, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8070", "name": "Mathias Yuzdepski", "place": 38, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.68, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -52.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.404962054279894, "race_score": 7.404962054279894, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 19, "uninformative_place_high": 68, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "regina:12433", "key": "ayden|bradley", "name": "Ayden Bradley", "team_id": "regina", "team": "University of Regina", "team_short": "Regina", "profile_url": "https://cougarsandrams.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=12433", "roster_url": "https://www.reginacougars.com/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "Exact full name and Regina Cougars team in primary fall PDF; school recap directly links current roster profile.", "identity_alternatives": "Whitnall Wisconsin same-name athlete lacks Manitoba hometown and Regina affiliation and is rejected.", "identity_source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 10, "team_selection_order": 10, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 86, "place_low": 83, "place_high": 99, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1859.98, "name_raw": "Ayden Bradley", "team": "Regina Cougars", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1859.98, "name_raw": "Ayden Bradley", "team": "Regina Cougars", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: Dakota Classic on 2026-09-26 (8 km, 30:60.0). 1 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "regina:12435", "name": "Rhys Naughton", "place": 84, "estimated_gap_percent": 2.31, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": 42.02, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6829", "name": "Alejandro Civetta", "place": 85, "estimated_gap_percent": 2.12, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": 32.58, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6832", "name": "Tristan Gudmundson", "place": 87, "estimated_gap_percent": -3.5, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": -65.16, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.510194904857887, "race_score": 7.510194904857887, "sigma": 0.037000000000000005, "uninformative_place_low": 83, "uninformative_place_high": 99, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "regina:12421", "key": "adonias|downes", "name": "Adonias Downes", "team_id": "regina", "team": "University of Regina", "team_short": "Regina", "profile_url": "https://cougarsandrams.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=12421", "roster_url": "https://www.reginacougars.com/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 4, "team_selection_order": 4, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 30, "place_low": 17, "place_high": 64, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1562.0, "name_raw": "DOWNES, Adonias", "team": "REGINA COUGARS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1562.0, "name_raw": "DOWNES, Adonias", "team": "REGINA COUGARS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1713.65, "name_raw": "Adonias Downes", "team": "Regina Cougars", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 }, { "event_id": "smx:2025/acxc/U20 Men 8km (U20)", "date": "2025-11-29", "race": "2025 Canadian Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20 Men 8km (U20)", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1633.2, "name_raw": "Adonias Downes", "team": "SK University Of Regina", "source_url": null, "venue": "Fanshawe Golf Course, London, ON", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 328 }, { "event_id": "alive:2025/usports/8 km - Masculin", "date": "2025-11-08", "race": "U SPORTS Cross Country Championships 2025", "event": "8 km - Masculin", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1610.0, "name_raw": "Adonias Downes", "team": "Regina Cougars", "source_url": null, "venue": "Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 349 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1607.0, "name_raw": "Adonias Downes", "team": "Regina Cougars", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 }, { "event_id": "slt:2024/usports/Men", "date": "2024-11-09", "race": "U SPORTS Cross-Country Championships", "event": "Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1515.0, "name_raw": "DOWNES, Adonias", "team": "ALBERTA GOLDEN BEARS", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2024/usports/event/Men", "venue": "Kelowna, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 713 }, { "event_id": "uofa:2024/canwestxc/8K - Men", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2024", "event": "8K - Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1638.034, "name_raw": "Adonias Downes", "team": "Alberta Golden Bears/Pandas", "source_url": null, "venue": "Stoney Creek Centre, Camrose, AB", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": { "profile_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/93626383", "strava_id": "93626383", "identity_status": "inferred_strongest_available_match", "identity_confidence": "medium-low", "identity_basis": { "status": "inferred_strongest_available_match", "confidence": "medium-low", "confidence_is": "Qualitative evidence assessment; not a calibrated probability.", "strava_id": "93626383", "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/93626383", "basis": { "display_name": "Adonias Downes", "location": " Regina , Saskatchewan", "clubs": [ { "owner_id": "93626383", "scope": "profile-clubs", "name": "Parker Valby Fan Club", "url": "https://www.strava.com/clubs/1192214" }, { "owner_id": "93626383", "scope": "profile-clubs", "name": "2024 kms in 2024.", "url": "https://www.strava.com/clubs/1196459" }, { "owner_id": "93626383", "scope": "profile-clubs", "name": "Nocontextxctrack", "url": "https://www.strava.com/clubs/1092091" }, { "owner_id": "93626383", "scope": "profile-clubs", "name": "Wascana parkrun", "url": "https://www.strava.com/clubs/462643" } ], "bio": { "owner_id": "93626383", "scope": "profile-bio", "text": "🔴" } }, "alternatives": [], "selection_rule": "Explicit corresponding XC/track club or bio, then matching locale, then visible running history; no selection by forecast error." }, "capture_complete": false, "recent28_km": 68.83, "previous56_km": 208.72, "logged_weekly_km28": 17.2, "run_days28": 6, "runs28": 9, "longest28_km": 20.0, "latest_visible_run": "2026-10-17", "weeks": [ { "start": "2026-09-14", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-21", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 68.92, "runs": 5, "run_days": 4, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20193793894", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20204479648", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20208365227", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20230183517", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20259043027" ] }, { "start": "2026-09-21", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-28", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 59.3, "runs": 6, "run_days": 4, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20273433364", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20276369680", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20318453859", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20344776508", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20344776537", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20355645062" ] }, { "start": "2026-09-28", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-05", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 10.21, "runs": 1, "run_days": 1, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20372735117" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-05", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-12", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 12.72, "runs": 1, "run_days": 1, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20497046704" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-12", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-19", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 16.32, "runs": 4, "run_days": 2, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20576436086", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20624522639", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20624522672", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20624688610" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-19", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "partial": true, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] } ], "observation_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "sessions": [ { "date": "2026-10-17", "name": "Morning Run", "description": "Start of workout @ 3k pace", "km": 1.0, "url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20624522639", "terrain": null, "effort": null, "recovery_s": null, "blocks": [], "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0099-strava-93626383-202610-9a5c424e8b6ab169.txt", "source_sha256": "9a5c424e8b6ab169d076cdeb4e2ae0f15c5b2dc665d05fa9c0548a08ae793066" }, { "date": "2026-10-17", "name": "Morning Run", "description": "5xmile @ T", "km": 8.03, "url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20624522672", "terrain": null, "effort": null, "recovery_s": null, "blocks": [], "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0099-strava-93626383-202610-9a5c424e8b6ab169.txt", "source_sha256": "9a5c424e8b6ab169d076cdeb4e2ae0f15c5b2dc665d05fa9c0548a08ae793066" }, { "date": "2026-10-17", "name": "Morning Run", "description": "End workout @ 3k pace", "km": 1.01, "url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20624688610", "terrain": null, "effort": null, "recovery_s": null, "blocks": [], "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0099-strava-93626383-202610-9a5c424e8b6ab169.txt", "source_sha256": "9a5c424e8b6ab169d076cdeb4e2ae0f15c5b2dc665d05fa9c0548a08ae793066" } ], "limitation": "Visible uploaded running only; missing uploads, private activities and unrecorded training remain unknown. Empty calendar bins do not establish rest or injury.", "window_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "capture_fresh": true, "calendar_capture_complete": false, "collection_status": "fresh" }, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 26:02.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Visible running averages 17.2 km/week in the current 28-day window. Calendar coverage or source freshness is incomplete, so no volume trend is applied." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "calgary:17455", "name": "Max Cook", "place": 28, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.18, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -10.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6600", "name": "Bennett Friesen", "place": 29, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.15, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -30.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": 49.02, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6830", "name": "Luxton Dueck", "place": 31, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.1, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -45.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": 51.57, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8055", "name": "Mackenzie Lascelle", "place": 32, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.29, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.400205514370258, "race_score": 7.400205514370258, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 17, "uninformative_place_high": 64, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "regina:12434", "key": "luke|holman", "name": "Luke Holman", "team_id": "regina", "team": "University of Regina", "team_short": "Regina", "profile_url": "https://cougarsandrams.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=12434", "roster_url": "https://www.reginacougars.com/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "Exact full name, Excel Athletika club/Saskatchewan and university commitment explicitly Moosomin and distance PBs agree; current roster hometown Moosomin.", "identity_alternatives": "Michigan middle-school and Alabama baseball same-name profiles are rejected.", "identity_source_url": "https://athletics.ca/athlete/luke-holman/", "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": null, "team_selection_order": 11, "forecast_status": "unknown", "unknown_reason": "no_current_xc", "place": null, "place_low": null, "place_high": null, "win_probability": null, "basis": { "kind": "historical_pb", "mark": { "event_id": null, "date": "2026-07-12", "race": "Whiteswan Mile", "event": "Mile Road", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 1.609344, "time_s": 267.0, "name_raw": null, "team": null, "source_url": "https://athletics.ca/athlete/luke-holman/", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 103 } }, "uncertainty": "Current fitness unknown. Shown after supported estimates without a finishing-position claim.", "race_results": [], "personal_bests": [ { "event_id": null, "date": "2025-07-20", "race": "Western Canada Team Challenge", "event": "1500 Metres Outdoor", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.5, "time_s": 247.94, "name_raw": null, "team": null, "source_url": "https://athletics.ca/athlete/luke-holman/", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 460 }, { "event_id": null, "date": "2026-02-07", "race": "Regina Indoor Games", "event": "1500 Metres Indoor", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.5, "time_s": 245.83, "name_raw": null, "team": null, "source_url": "https://athletics.ca/athlete/luke-holman/", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 258 }, { "event_id": null, "date": "2026-07-12", "race": "Whiteswan Mile", "event": "Mile Road", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 1.609344, "time_s": 267.0, "name_raw": null, "team": null, "source_url": "https://athletics.ca/athlete/luke-holman/", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 103 }, { "event_id": null, "date": "2025-06-29", "race": "Saskatchewan Provincial Track and Field Championships and Trials", "event": "3000 Metres Outdoor", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 3.0, "time_s": 557.73, "name_raw": null, "team": null, "source_url": "https://athletics.ca/athlete/luke-holman/", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 481 } ], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Unknown current form: no qualifying current XC result.", "Historical background: Whiteswan Mile on 2026-07-12 (1.60934 km, 4:27.0). 0 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Older performances are background ability, not evidence of current fitness. A recent XC race can change this status.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "regina:12426", "name": "Henry Sharp", "place": 60, "estimated_gap_percent": null, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "regina:12436", "name": "Kristian Richards", "place": 72, "estimated_gap_percent": null, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.437032711926083, "race_score": 7.437032711926083, "sigma": 0.08017351598173515, "uninformative_place_low": 7, "uninformative_place_high": 98, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "regina:12422", "key": "jacob|klassen", "name": "Jacob Klassen", "team_id": "regina", "team": "University of Regina", "team_short": "Regina", "profile_url": "https://cougarsandrams.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=12422", "roster_url": "https://www.reginacougars.com/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 5, "team_selection_order": 5, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 35, "place_low": 13, "place_high": 77, "win_probability": 0.0014, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1602.0, "name_raw": "KLASSEN, Jacob", "team": "REGINA COUGARS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1602.0, "name_raw": "KLASSEN, Jacob", "team": "REGINA COUGARS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "smx:2025/acxc/U20 Men 8km (U20)", "date": "2025-11-29", "race": "2025 Canadian Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20 Men 8km (U20)", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1590.5, "name_raw": "Jacob Klassen", "team": "SK University Of Regina", "source_url": null, "venue": "Fanshawe Golf Course, London, ON", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 328 }, { "event_id": "alive:2025/usports/8 km - Masculin", "date": "2025-11-08", "race": "U SPORTS Cross Country Championships 2025", "event": "8 km - Masculin", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1579.0, "name_raw": "Jacob Klassen", "team": "Regina Cougars", "source_url": null, "venue": "Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 349 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1642.4, "name_raw": "Jacob Klassen", "team": "Regina Cougars", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 }, { "event_id": "uofa:2024/canwestxc/8K - Men", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2024", "event": "8K - Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1684.744, "name_raw": "Jacob Klassen", "team": "Alberta Golden Bears/Pandas", "source_url": null, "venue": "Stoney Creek Centre, Camrose, AB", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 26:42.0). 1 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6609", "name": "Colin Stock", "place": 33, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.15, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 3.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5110", "name": "Ethan Nozick", "place": 34, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.1, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 7.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "regina:12432", "name": "William Barnes", "place": 36, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.02, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 3.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16361", "name": "Carson Young", "place": 37, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.11, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 2.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.4047369251185575, "race_score": 7.4047369251185575, "sigma": 0.037000000000000005, "uninformative_place_low": 13, "uninformative_place_high": 77, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "regina:12423", "key": "mason|kraus", "name": "Mason Kraus", "team_id": "regina", "team": "University of Regina", "team_short": "Regina", "profile_url": "https://cougarsandrams.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=12423", "roster_url": "https://www.reginacougars.com/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": null, "team_selection_order": 12, "forecast_status": "unknown", "unknown_reason": "no_current_xc", "place": null, "place_low": null, "place_high": null, "win_probability": null, "basis": { "kind": "historical_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1796.1, "name_raw": "Mason Kraus", "team": "Regina Cougars", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 } }, "uncertainty": "Current fitness unknown. Shown after supported estimates without a finishing-position claim.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1796.1, "name_raw": "Mason Kraus", "team": "Regina Cougars", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Unknown current form: no qualifying current XC result.", "Historical background: Canada West XC Championships 2025 on 2025-10-25 (8 km, 29:56.1). 0 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Older performances are background ability, not evidence of current fitness. A recent XC race can change this status.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "regina:12435", "name": "Rhys Naughton", "place": 84, "estimated_gap_percent": null, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "regina:12433", "name": "Ayden Bradley", "place": 86, "estimated_gap_percent": null, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.4921167716459145, "race_score": 7.4921167716459145, "sigma": 0.09323287671232877, "uninformative_place_low": 18, "uninformative_place_high": 101, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "regina:12425", "key": "brett|maclean", "name": "Brett MacLean", "team_id": "regina", "team": "University of Regina", "team_short": "Regina", "profile_url": "https://cougarsandrams.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=12425", "roster_url": "https://www.reginacougars.com/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 2, "team_selection_order": 2, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 8, "place_low": 5, "place_high": 32, "win_probability": 0.00445, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1543.0, "name_raw": "MACLEAN, Brett", "team": "REGINA COUGARS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1543.0, "name_raw": "MACLEAN, Brett", "team": "REGINA COUGARS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1590.59, "name_raw": "Brett MacLean", "team": "Regina Cougars", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 }, { "event_id": "smx:2025/acxc/U20 Men 8km (U20)", "date": "2025-11-29", "race": "2025 Canadian Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20 Men 8km (U20)", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1569.8, "name_raw": "Brett MacLean", "team": "SK University Of Regina", "source_url": null, "venue": "Fanshawe Golf Course, London, ON", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 328 }, { "event_id": "alive:2025/usports/8 km - Masculin", "date": "2025-11-08", "race": "U SPORTS Cross Country Championships 2025", "event": "8 km - Masculin", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1560.0, "name_raw": "Brett Maclean", "team": "Regina Cougars", "source_url": null, "venue": "Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 349 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1588.2, "name_raw": "Brett MacLean", "team": "Regina Cougars", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 }, { "event_id": "smx:2024/acxc/U20 Men 8k (U20)", "date": "2024-12-01", "race": "2024 Canadian Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20 Men 8k (U20)", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1571.2, "name_raw": "Brett MacLean", "team": "University Of Regina", "source_url": null, "venue": "Fanshawe Golf Course, London, ON", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 691 }, { "event_id": "slt:2024/usports/Men", "date": "2024-11-09", "race": "U SPORTS Cross-Country Championships", "event": "Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1497.0, "name_raw": "MACLEAN, Brett", "team": "REGINA COUGARS", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2024/usports/event/Men", "venue": "Kelowna, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 713 }, { "event_id": "uofa:2024/canwestxc/8K - Men", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2024", "event": "8K - Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1613.051, "name_raw": "Brett Maclean", "team": "Regina Cougars", "source_url": null, "venue": "Stoney Creek Centre, Camrose, AB", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": { "profile_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/163070575", "strava_id": "163070575", "identity_status": "inferred_strongest_available_match", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": { "status": "inferred_strongest_available_match", "confidence": "high", "confidence_is": "Qualitative evidence assessment; not a calibrated probability.", "strava_id": "163070575", "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/163070575", "basis": { "display_name": "Brett MacLean", "location": " Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada", "clubs": [ { "owner_id": "163070575", "scope": "profile-clubs", "name": "Cougars cross country 2025", "url": "https://www.strava.com/clubs/1708707" }, { "owner_id": "163070575", "scope": "profile-clubs", "name": "Cougasss 2026XC", "url": "https://www.strava.com/clubs/2333765" } ], "bio": null }, "alternatives": [ { "strava_id": "124089687", "location": " Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada", "clubs": [], "visible_activities": 0 } ], "selection_rule": "Explicit corresponding XC/track club or bio, then matching locale, then visible running history; no selection by forecast error." }, "capture_complete": false, "recent28_km": 590.95, "previous56_km": 537.7, "logged_weekly_km28": 147.7, "run_days28": 28, "runs28": 76, "longest28_km": 25.52, "latest_visible_run": "2026-10-22", "weeks": [ { "start": "2026-09-14", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-21", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 162.88, "runs": 22, "run_days": 7, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20175880329", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20179475552", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20185927923", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20186583478", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20186814378", 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Calendar coverage or source freshness is incomplete, so no volume trend is applied." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "victoria:8069", "name": "Jacob Webster", "place": 6, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.57, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8067", "name": "Jack Screen", "place": 7, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.21, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6831", "name": "Luc Fillion", "place": 9, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.97, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -20.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": 6.43, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8051", "name": "Nolan Galloway", "place": 10, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.98, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.361311766471206, "race_score": 7.361311766471206, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 5, "uninformative_place_high": 32, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "regina:12435", "key": "rhys|naughton", "name": "Rhys Naughton", "team_id": "regina", "team": "University of Regina", "team_short": "Regina", "profile_url": "https://cougarsandrams.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=12435", "roster_url": "https://www.reginacougars.com/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "Exact name, Saskatchewan/Excel Athletika club and dated Regina-area results match roster hometown Regina and school; Dakota team-bound row provides direct current fall linkage.", "identity_alternatives": "Other non-running same-name sport profiles not needed.", "identity_source_url": "https://athletics.ca/athlete/rhys-naughton/", "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 9, "team_selection_order": 9, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 84, "place_low": 70, "place_high": 98, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1817.96, "name_raw": "Rhys Naughton", "team": "Regina Cougars", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1817.96, "name_raw": "Rhys Naughton", "team": "Regina Cougars", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 } ], "personal_bests": [ { "event_id": null, "date": "2026-03-21", "race": "Saskatoon Indoor Games", "event": "1500 Metres Indoor", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.5, "time_s": 259.45, "name_raw": null, "team": null, "source_url": "https://athletics.ca/athlete/rhys-naughton/", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 216 }, { "event_id": null, "date": "2026-06-06", "race": "SHSAA Provincial Track & Field Championships", "event": "1500 Metres Outdoor", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.5, "time_s": 258.33, "name_raw": null, "team": null, "source_url": "https://athletics.ca/athlete/rhys-naughton/", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 139 }, { "event_id": null, "date": "2025-06-07", "race": "SHSAA Provincial Track & Field Championships", "event": "3000 Metres Outdoor", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 3.0, "time_s": 621.62, "name_raw": null, "team": null, "source_url": "https://athletics.ca/athlete/rhys-naughton/", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 503 } ], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: Dakota Classic on 2026-09-26 (8 km, 30:18.0). 1 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5113", "name": "Evan Iacobelli", "place": 82, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.89, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6613", "name": "Jose Mateo Trejo Monroy", "place": 83, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.21, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": 8.58, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6829", "name": "Alejandro Civetta", "place": 85, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.19, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": -9.44, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "regina:12433", "name": "Ayden Bradley", "place": 86, "estimated_gap_percent": -2.26, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": -42.02, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.487344163194007, "race_score": 7.487344163194007, "sigma": 0.037000000000000005, "uninformative_place_low": 70, "uninformative_place_high": 98, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "regina:12436", "key": "kristian|richards", "name": "Kristian Richards", "team_id": "regina", "team": "University of Regina", "team_short": "Regina", "profile_url": "https://cougarsandrams.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=12436", "roster_url": "https://www.reginacougars.com/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 8, "team_selection_order": 8, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 72, "place_low": 53, "place_high": 90, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1674.0, "name_raw": "RICHARDS, Kristian", "team": "REGINA COUGARS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1674.0, "name_raw": "RICHARDS, Kristian", "team": "REGINA COUGARS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1753.47, "name_raw": "Kristian Richards", "team": "Regina Cougars", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": { "profile_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/120641150", "strava_id": "120641150", "identity_status": "verified_existing_source_review", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": [ { "kind": "owner_bound_race_correspondence", "source_path": "data/usports/2026-10-23/training/national/raw/120641150/202610.txt", "source_sha256": "cf477c3b777df42d890e776a0e54a88a84c9bcf22e3efddf970abb73a82768e7", "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/120641150/interval?interval=202610&interval_type=month&chart_type=miles&year_offset=0", "activity_id": "20533348901", "activity_url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20533348901", "owner_strava_id": "120641150", "owner_name": "Kristian Richards", "activity_title": "UBC Farm Fest", "activity_date": "2026-10-10", "watch_distance_km": 8.32, "watch_moving_s": 1675, "official_result": { "path": "data/raw/www.startlinetiming.com/en__races__2026__ubcfarmfest__event__Mens_8K.html", "sha256": "ceba8cbaee5ef59f0119dde5ac6abcbaf000240d5a1dcf6f7bc4be1901a4e97b", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "name_raw": "RICHARDS, Kristian", "team_raw": "REGINA COUGARS", "clock_raw": "0:27:54", "time_s": 1674.0, "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "distance_km": 8.0 }, "clock_difference_s": 1.0, "named_race": true, "ownership_fact": "Entry activity athleteId or group row athlete_id_str equals this mapped Strava ID; entries owned by other group members rejected.", "correspondence_fact": "Exact owner/source name correspondence; same official race date; near source distance; clock difference retained explicitly. 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10, "run_days": 6, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20290027666", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20311719264", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20311724745", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20311677119", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20317101624", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20330561906", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20340593101", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20340593111", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20342098743", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20355610111" ] }, { "start": "2026-09-28", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-05", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 73.01, "runs": 7, "run_days": 6, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20386372873", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20396821765", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20400168103", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20408183333", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20437641915", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20436999609", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20451728019" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-05", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-12", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 77.02, "runs": 11, "run_days": 7, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20461840198", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20482753575", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20495984122", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20504744870", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20518505106", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20521562965", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20530489349", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20533051145", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20533348901", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20533875030", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20557293072" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-12", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-19", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 115.45, "runs": 10, "run_days": 6, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20557045841", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20560675370", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20575763969", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20576169046", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20585493857", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20588980887", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20597164922", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20603095682", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20625024213", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20641740983" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-19", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "partial": true, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 51.0, "runs": 4, "run_days": 3, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20648982933", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20653984587", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20668849130", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20695166009" ] } ], "observation_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "sessions": [ { "date": "2026-10-20", "name": "What a nasty hill workout", "description": "", "km": 18.0, "url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20668849130", "terrain": null, "effort": null, "recovery_s": null, "blocks": [], "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0073-strava-120641150-202610-ce5e6e10e5ccafa2.txt", "source_sha256": "ce5e6e10e5ccafa22d0efc7cb38df2ef54e58c49ef3060329ee8d2e13bfd724c" }, { "date": "2026-10-15", "name": "Morning threshold", "description": "", "km": 12.0, "url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20597164922", "terrain": null, "effort": null, "recovery_s": null, "blocks": [], "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0073-strava-120641150-202610-ce5e6e10e5ccafa2.txt", "source_sha256": "ce5e6e10e5ccafa22d0efc7cb38df2ef54e58c49ef3060329ee8d2e13bfd724c" }, { "date": "2026-10-15", "name": "The splits can speak for themselves", "description": "Evening 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Empty calendar bins do not establish rest or injury.", "window_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "capture_fresh": true, "calendar_capture_complete": true, "collection_status": "fresh" }, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 27:54.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Visible running averages 89.3 km/week in the current 28-day window. The complete captured window permits a small logged-volume trend adjustment." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6610", "name": "Markus Thompson", "place": 70, "estimated_gap_percent": 1.11, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 16.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5111", "name": "Basil Parkins", "place": 71, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.27, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -6.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5115", "name": "Henry Nestmann", "place": 73, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.15, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -20.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16359", "name": "Ethan Randall", "place": 74, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.46, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": -5.45, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.45018098055514, "race_score": 7.449648613235992, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 53, "uninformative_place_high": 90, "training_log_adjustment": 0.000532367319147973, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "regina:12426", "key": "henry|sharp", "name": "Henry Sharp", "team_id": "regina", "team": "University of Regina", "team_short": "Regina", "profile_url": "https://cougarsandrams.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=12426", "roster_url": "https://www.reginacougars.com/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 7, "team_selection_order": 7, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 60, "place_low": 36, "place_high": 83, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1634.0, "name_raw": "SHARP, Henry", "team": "REGINA COUGARS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1634.0, "name_raw": "SHARP, Henry", "team": "REGINA COUGARS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1729.66, "name_raw": "Henry Sharp", "team": "Regina Cougars", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 }, { "event_id": "alive:2025/usports/8 km - Masculin", "date": "2025-11-08", "race": "U SPORTS Cross Country Championships 2025", "event": "8 km - Masculin", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1634.0, "name_raw": "Henry Sharp", "team": "Regina Cougars", "source_url": null, "venue": "Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 349 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1742.8, "name_raw": "Henry Sharp", "team": "Regina Cougars", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 }, { "event_id": "slt:2024/usports/Men", "date": "2024-11-09", "race": "U SPORTS Cross-Country Championships", "event": "Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1565.0, "name_raw": "SHARP, Henry", "team": "REGINA COUGARS", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2024/usports/event/Men", "venue": "Kelowna, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 713 }, { "event_id": "uofa:2024/canwestxc/8K - Men", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2024", "event": "8K - Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1720.394, "name_raw": "Henry Sharp", "team": "Regina Cougars", "source_url": null, "venue": "Stoney Creek Centre, Camrose, AB", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 27:14.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "calgary:17464", "name": "Quinn Schulz", "place": 58, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.34, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8060", "name": "Dylan Naresh", "place": 59, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.26, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 23.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13379", "name": "Arata Nakanishi", "place": 61, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.0, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -11.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16355", "name": "Daniel Gutierrez", "place": 62, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.21, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "gap_s": 5.26, "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.4299630181170135, "race_score": 7.4299630181170135, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 36, "uninformative_place_high": 83, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "regina:12427", "key": "alec|teichler", "name": "Alec Teichler", "team_id": "regina", "team": "University of Regina", "team_short": "Regina", "profile_url": "https://cougarsandrams.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=12427", "roster_url": "https://www.reginacougars.com/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 3, "team_selection_order": 3, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 13, "place_low": 9, "place_high": 48, "win_probability": 0.0005, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1550.0, "name_raw": "TEICHLER, Alec", "team": "REGINA COUGARS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1550.0, "name_raw": "TEICHLER, Alec", "team": "REGINA COUGARS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1650.87, "name_raw": "Alec Teichler", "team": "Regina Cougars", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 }, { "event_id": "smx:2025/acxc/U20 Men 8km (U20)", "date": "2025-11-29", "race": "2025 Canadian Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20 Men 8km (U20)", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1592.4, "name_raw": "Alec Teichler", "team": "SK University Of Regina", "source_url": null, "venue": "Fanshawe Golf Course, London, ON", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 328 }, { "event_id": "alive:2025/usports/8 km - Masculin", "date": "2025-11-08", "race": "U SPORTS Cross Country Championships 2025", "event": "8 km - Masculin", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1560.0, "name_raw": "Alec Teichler", "team": "Regina Cougars", "source_url": null, "venue": "Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 349 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1597.6, "name_raw": "Alec Teichler", "team": "Regina Cougars", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": { "profile_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/192202999", "strava_id": "192202999", "identity_status": "inferred_strongest_available_match", "identity_confidence": "medium-low", "identity_basis": { "status": "inferred_strongest_available_match", "confidence": "medium-low", "confidence_is": "Qualitative evidence assessment; not a calibrated probability.", "strava_id": "192202999", "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/192202999", "basis": { "display_name": "Alec Teichler", "location": " Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada", "clubs": [], "bio": null }, "alternatives": [ { "strava_id": "155684386", "location": " Regina, Saskatchewan , Canada", "clubs": [], "visible_activities": 0 } ], "selection_rule": "Explicit corresponding XC/track club or bio, then matching locale, then visible running history; no selection by forecast error." }, "capture_complete": false, "recent28_km": null, "previous56_km": null, "logged_weekly_km28": null, "run_days28": null, "runs28": null, "longest28_km": null, "latest_visible_run": null, "weeks": [ { "start": "2026-09-14", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-21", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-09-21", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-28", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-09-28", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-05", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-05", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-12", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-12", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-19", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-19", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "partial": true, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] } ], "observation_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "sessions": [], "limitation": "Visible uploaded running only; missing uploads, private activities and unrecorded training remain unknown. Empty calendar bins do not establish rest or injury.", "window_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "capture_fresh": true, "calendar_capture_complete": false, "collection_status": "fresh" }, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 25:50.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "victoria:8048", "name": "Mitchell Erickson", "place": 11, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.82, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8071", "name": "Joe Accardo", "place": 12, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.07, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8072", "name": "Rhys Beaudoin", "place": 14, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.16, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -3.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "calgary:17461", "name": "Ethan Meyer", "place": 15, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.19, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 11.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.3798205609203835, "race_score": 7.3798205609203835, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 9, "uninformative_place_high": 48, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "regina:12428", "key": "ian|teichler", "name": "Ian Teichler", "team_id": "regina", "team": "University of Regina", "team_short": "Regina", "profile_url": "https://cougarsandrams.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=12428", "roster_url": "https://www.reginacougars.com/sports/cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 1, "team_selection_order": 1, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 5, "place_low": 3, "place_high": 22, "win_probability": 0.01545, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1513.0, "name_raw": "TEICHLER, Ian", "team": "REGINA COUGARS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1513.0, "name_raw": "TEICHLER, Ian", "team": "REGINA COUGARS", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "regina:2026/dakota-classic/Men-8000m", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "Dakota Classic", "event": "Men 8000m", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1577.09, "name_raw": "Ian Teichler", "team": "Regina Cougars", "source_url": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/reginacougars.com/documents/2026/9/27/2026-Dakota-Classic.pdf", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 27 }, { "event_id": "smx:2025/acxc/U20 Men 8km (U20)", "date": "2025-11-29", "race": "2025 Canadian Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20 Men 8km (U20)", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1520.7, "name_raw": "Ian Teichler", "team": "SK University Of Regina", "source_url": null, "venue": "Fanshawe Golf Course, London, ON", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 328 }, { "event_id": "alive:2025/usports/8 km - Masculin", "date": "2025-11-08", "race": "U SPORTS Cross Country Championships 2025", "event": "8 km - Masculin", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1528.0, "name_raw": "Ian Teichler", "team": "Regina Cougars", "source_url": null, "venue": "Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 349 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1573.0, "name_raw": "Ian Teichler", "team": "Regina Cougars", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 }, { "event_id": "smx:2024/acxc/U20 Men 8k (U20)", "date": "2024-12-01", 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Longer recovery than Oct15; do not equate this repetition pace with8km race pace.", "blocks": [ { "rep_distances_m": [ 390.0, 390.0, 390.0, 390.0, 390.0, 390.0, 400.0, 390.0, 400.0, 390.0, 390.0, 390.0, 400.0, 390.0, 390.0, 390.0, 390.0, 390.0, 390.0, 390.0, 390.0, 390.0, 390.0, 390.0, 390.0 ], "rep_times_s": [ 71.0, 72.0, 70.0, 70.0, 70.0, 71.0, 70.0, 71.0, 70.0, 70.0, 68.0, 68.0, 67.0, 68.0, 66.0, 69.0, 68.0, 70.0, 66.0, 70.0, 62.0, 71.0, 70.0, 63.0, 69.0 ], "recovery_s": [ 49.0, 48.0, 49.0, 50.0, 50.0, 49.0, 50.0, 49.0, 50.0, 50.0, 52.0, 232.0, 53.0, 52.0, 54.0, 50.0, 52.0, 50.0, 54.0, 50.0, 58.0, 49.0, 50.0, 57.0 ], "effort": null, "work_lap_indices": [ 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18, 20, 22, 24, 26, 28, 30, 32, 34, 36, 38, 40, 42, 44, 46, 48 ], "recovery_lap_indices": [ 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 19, 21, 23, 25, 27, 29, 31, 33, 35, 37, 39, 41, 43, 45, 47 ] } ], "evidence": { "source_path": "data/canwest-site/training-research/laps/20482678664.json", "source_sha256": "9af791f5048013cb6c655b82fa1c5841a6c914a1d4ca4d3ebaa0c403fef7cf0c", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:31:23.959Z" } }, { "date": "2026-10-03", "name": "Workout", "description": "800s", "km": 7.02, "url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20436721930", "terrain": null, "effort": null, "recovery_s": null, "blocks": [], "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0105-strava-108684239-202610-18f8c64d5a62db61.txt", "source_sha256": "18f8c64d5a62db61651b5717e7eb830dcf199130ae001eef817c59d7717f9f6a" }, { "date": "2026-10-01", "name": "AM", "description": "3 x 10 minutes", "km": 15.02, "url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20408574195", "terrain": null, "effort": null, "recovery_s": null, "blocks": [], "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0105-strava-108684239-202610-18f8c64d5a62db61.txt", "source_sha256": "18f8c64d5a62db61651b5717e7eb830dcf199130ae001eef817c59d7717f9f6a" }, { "date": "2026-10-01", "name": "PM", "description": "9x1k", "km": 9.99, "url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20414537900", "terrain": null, "effort": null, "recovery_s": null, "blocks": [], "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0105-strava-108684239-202610-18f8c64d5a62db61.txt", "source_sha256": "18f8c64d5a62db61651b5717e7eb830dcf199130ae001eef817c59d7717f9f6a" } ], "limitation": "Visible uploaded running only; missing uploads, private activities and unrecorded training remain unknown. Empty calendar bins do not establish rest or injury.", "window_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "capture_fresh": true, "calendar_capture_complete": false, "collection_status": "fresh" }, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 25:13.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Visible running averages 114.1 km/week in the current 28-day window. Calendar coverage or source freshness is incomplete, so no volume trend is applied." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "victoria:8045", "name": "Tyler Browne", "place": 3, "estimated_gap_percent": 1.37, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8074", "name": "Daniel Damian", "place": 4, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.66, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8069", "name": "Jacob Webster", "place": 6, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.91, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8067", "name": "Jack Screen", "place": 7, "estimated_gap_percent": -1.27, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.346432659029947, "race_score": 7.346432659029947, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 3, "uninformative_place_high": 22, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5105", "key": "brody|cormier", "name": "Brody Cormier", "team_id": "ubc-okanagan", "team": "University of British Columbia Okanagan", "team_short": "UBC Okanagan", "profile_url": "https://goheat.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=5105", "roster_url": "https://goheat.ca/sports/mens-cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 7, "team_selection_order": 7, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 78, "place_low": 63, "place_high": 93, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1684.0, "name_raw": "CORMIER, Brody", "team": "UBC OKANAGAN", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1684.0, "name_raw": "CORMIER, Brody", "team": "UBC OKANAGAN", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "tfrrs:2026/27790/Men 8k", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "WWU Bill Roe Classic 2026", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1687.4, "name_raw": "Brody Cormier", "team": "UBCO", "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/27790/WWU_Bill_Roe_Classic_2026", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact name/alias and explicit university team", "age_days": 27 }, { "event_id": "slt:2025/bcxcchamp/U20", "date": "2025-10-18", "race": "BC Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1776.0, "name_raw": "CORMIER, Brody", "team": "UNATTACHED-BC", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/bcxcchamp/event/U20", "venue": "Vernon, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 370 }, { "event_id": "slt:2025/spiritrun/8K-Open", "date": "2025-09-28", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K-Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1608.0, "name_raw": "CORMIER, Brody", "team": "UBCO", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/spiritrun/event/8K-Open", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 390 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 28:04.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5116", "name": "Ethan Peregrym", "place": 76, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.44, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 17.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "WWU Bill Roe Classic 2026", "gap_s": 33.6, "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/27790/WWU_Bill_Roe_Classic_2026", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "calgary:17463", "name": "Sam Prezio", "place": 77, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.03, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6601", "name": "Ewan Gendall", "place": 79, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.18, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -18.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16360", "name": "Adam Stang", "place": 80, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.23, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -17.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.4623895752194835, "race_score": 7.4623895752194835, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 63, "uninformative_place_high": 93, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5106", "key": "ezra|ganske", "name": "Ezra Ganske", "team_id": "ubc-okanagan", "team": "University of British Columbia Okanagan", "team_short": "UBC Okanagan", "profile_url": "https://goheat.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=5106", "roster_url": "https://goheat.ca/sports/mens-cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": null, "team_selection_order": 10, "forecast_status": "unknown", "unknown_reason": "no_current_xc", "place": null, "place_low": null, "place_high": null, "win_probability": null, "basis": { "kind": "historical_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2025/bcxcchamp/U20", "date": "2025-10-18", "race": "BC Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1667.0, "name_raw": "GANSKE, Ezra", "team": "UNATTACHED-BC", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/bcxcchamp/event/U20", "venue": "Vernon, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 370 } }, "uncertainty": "Current fitness unknown. Shown after supported estimates without a finishing-position claim.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2025/bcxcchamp/U20", "date": "2025-10-18", "race": "BC Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1667.0, "name_raw": "GANSKE, Ezra", "team": "UNATTACHED-BC", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/bcxcchamp/event/U20", "venue": "Vernon, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 370 }, { "event_id": "slt:2025/spiritrun/8K-Open", "date": "2025-09-28", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K-Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1565.0, "name_raw": "GANSKE, Ezra", "team": "UBCO", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/spiritrun/event/8K-Open", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 390 }, { "event_id": "arc:2024/bcxcchamp/U20 Men", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "BC Athletics Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20 Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1770.27, "name_raw": "Ganske, Ezra", "team": "Ubc Okanagan", "source_url": null, "venue": "Vernon, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 }, { "event_id": "slt:2024/spiritrun/8K-Open", "date": "2024-09-22", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K-Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1871.0, "name_raw": "GANSKE, Ezra", "team": "UBCO", "source_url": null, "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 761 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": { "profile_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/71424655", "strava_id": "71424655", "identity_status": "verified_existing_source_review", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": { "source_path": "data/usports/2026-10-23/training/identity-review-24/ubco-author/facts/71424655-d0225da1ff68449d93369307481c49a68c20a5c613c0d73fe00daad6bbe15362.json", "source_sha256": "d0225da1ff68449d93369307481c49a68c20a5c613c0d73fe00daad6bbe15362", "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/71424655", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T02:14:57.056Z", "display_name": "Ezra Ganske", "explicit_team_clubs": [ { "name": "UBC Okanagan Heat Cross Country", "url": "https://www.strava.com/clubs/263700" } ], "basis": "Exact canonical roster name and explicit corresponding university XC/track club; proposed for review only.", "kind": "owner_bound_profile_clubs", "owner_strava_id": "71424655", "owner_name": "Ezra Ganske", "owner_binding": "profile-follow-action-data-athlete-id", "institutional_club_source": { "source_path": "data/usports/2026-10-23/training/identity-review-24/ubco-author/club-identity-proof.json", "source_sha256": "26794754d8a08428e9ac84d1714a7005eda25ab1fa3ff831ecd056d58cb05863", "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/clubs/263700", "title": "UBC Okanagan Heat Cross Country Private Club", "description": "UBCO Heat Varsity XC", "official_school_link": "http://athletics.ok.ubc.ca/crosscountry.html", "own_profile_club_match": [ { "name": "UBC Okanagan Heat Cross Country", "url": "https://www.strava.com/clubs/263700" } ] }, "official_current_roster": { "source_path": "data/usports/2026-10-23/canwest/ubco-men.html", "source_sha256": "51d9755bad1e23e11aaafe5b05e42d33a2f573035012cad540535450b01a638f", "source_url": "https://goheat.ca/sports/mens-cross-country/roster", "team_id": "ubc-okanagan", "name": "Ezra Ganske", "source_profile_id": "5106", "profile_url": "https://goheat.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=5106", "season_heading": "2026-27 Men's Cross Country/Track Roster - 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Empty calendar bins do not establish rest or injury.", "window_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "capture_fresh": true, "calendar_capture_complete": false, "collection_status": "fresh" }, "justification": [ "Unknown current form: no qualifying current XC result.", "Historical background: BC Cross Country Championships on 2025-10-18 (8 km, 27:47.0). 0 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Older performances are background ability, not evidence of current fitness. A recent XC race can change this status.", "Visible running averages 62.4 km/week in the current 28-day window. Calendar coverage or source freshness is incomplete, so no volume trend is applied." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5111", "name": "Basil Parkins", "place": 71, "estimated_gap_percent": null, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5108", "name": "John Kwon", "place": 64, "estimated_gap_percent": null, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.440558788452094, "race_score": 7.440558788452094, "sigma": 0.09358447488584475, "uninformative_place_low": 4, "uninformative_place_high": 99, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5107", "key": "joel|geake", "name": "Joel Geake", "team_id": "ubc-okanagan", "team": "University of British Columbia Okanagan", "team_short": "UBC Okanagan", "profile_url": "https://goheat.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=5107", "roster_url": "https://goheat.ca/sports/mens-cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": null, "team_selection_order": 11, "forecast_status": "unknown", "unknown_reason": "no_current_xc", "place": null, "place_low": null, "place_high": null, "win_probability": null, "basis": { "kind": "historical_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2025/spiritrun/8K-Open", "date": "2025-09-28", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K-Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1521.0, "name_raw": "GEAKE, Joel", "team": "UBCO", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/spiritrun/event/8K-Open", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 390 } }, "uncertainty": "Current fitness unknown. Shown after supported estimates without a finishing-position claim.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2025/spiritrun/8K-Open", "date": "2025-09-28", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K-Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1521.0, "name_raw": "GEAKE, Joel", "team": "UBCO", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/spiritrun/event/8K-Open", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 390 }, { "event_id": "arc:2024/bcxcchamp/Senior Men", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "BC Athletics Cross Country Championships", "event": "Senior Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1670.71, "name_raw": "Geake, Joel", "team": "UBC Okanagan Heat", "source_url": null, "venue": "Vernon, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 }, { "event_id": "slt:2024/spiritrun/8K-Open", "date": "2024-09-22", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K-Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1719.0, "name_raw": "GEAKE, Joel", "team": "UBCO", "source_url": null, "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 761 }, { "event_id": "ss:2023/acxc/U20 Men 8km", "date": "2023-11-25", "race": "2023 Canadian Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20 Men 8km", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1730.86, "name_raw": "Joel Geake", "team": "BC", "source_url": null, "venue": "Mooney's Bay Park, Ottawa, ON", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 1063 }, { "event_id": "arc:2023/bcxcchamp/U20 Men", "date": "2023-10-14", "race": "BC Athletics Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20 Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1656.0, "name_raw": "Geake, Joel", "team": "UBC Okanagan Heat", "source_url": null, "venue": "Surrey, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 1105 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": { "profile_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/47590360", "strava_id": "47590360", "identity_status": "inferred_strongest_available_match", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": { "status": "inferred_strongest_available_match", "confidence": "high", "confidence_is": "Qualitative evidence assessment; not a calibrated probability.", "strava_id": "47590360", "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/47590360", "basis": { "display_name": "Joel Geake", "location": " Morden MB/ Kelowna", "clubs": [ { "owner_id": "47590360", "scope": "profile-clubs", "name": "UBC Okanagan Heat Cross Country", "url": "https://www.strava.com/clubs/263700" } ], "bio": null }, "alternatives": [], "selection_rule": "Explicit corresponding XC/track club or bio, then matching locale, then visible running history; no selection by forecast error." }, "capture_complete": false, "recent28_km": 76.99, "previous56_km": 26.17, "logged_weekly_km28": 19.2, "run_days28": 9, "runs28": 9, "longest28_km": 16.86, "latest_visible_run": "2026-10-21", "weeks": [ { "start": "2026-09-14", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-21", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 8.58, "runs": 1, "run_days": 1, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20248835400" ] }, { "start": "2026-09-21", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-28", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 27.9, "runs": 3, "run_days": 3, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20327619362", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20328935721", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20359218496" ] }, { "start": "2026-09-28", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-05", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 8.34, "runs": 2, "run_days": 2, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20411952448", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20480282873" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-05", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-12", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 29.34, "runs": 3, "run_days": 3, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20494327703", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20533233286", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20548823899" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-12", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-19", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 5.61, "runs": 1, "run_days": 1, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20557825107" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-19", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "partial": true, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 9.45, "runs": 1, "run_days": 1, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20678519132" ] } ], "observation_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "sessions": [], "limitation": "Visible uploaded running only; missing uploads, private activities and unrecorded training remain unknown. Empty calendar bins do not establish rest or injury.", "window_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "capture_fresh": true, "calendar_capture_complete": false, "collection_status": "fresh" }, "justification": [ "Unknown current form: no qualifying current XC result.", "Historical background: Vancouver Spirit Run on 2025-09-28 (8 km, 25:21.0). 0 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Older performances are background ability, not evidence of current fitness. A recent XC race can change this status.", "Visible running averages 19.2 km/week in the current 28-day window. Calendar coverage or source freshness is incomplete, so no volume trend is applied." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5110", "name": "Ethan Nozick", "place": 34, "estimated_gap_percent": null, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5109", "name": "Justin Monteleone", "place": 63, "estimated_gap_percent": null, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.380265410458882, "race_score": 7.380265410458882, "sigma": 0.0945890410958904, "uninformative_place_low": 1, "uninformative_place_high": 94, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5113", "key": "evan|iacobelli", "name": "Evan Iacobelli", "team_id": "ubc-okanagan", "team": "University of British Columbia Okanagan", "team_short": "UBC Okanagan", "profile_url": "https://goheat.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=5113", "roster_url": "https://goheat.ca/sports/mens-cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 8, "team_selection_order": 8, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 82, "place_low": 63, "place_high": 97, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "tfrrs:2026/27790/Men 8k", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "WWU Bill Roe Classic 2026", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1698.4, "name_raw": "Evan Iacobelli", "team": "UBCO", "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/27790/WWU_Bill_Roe_Classic_2026", "venue": "Hovander Homestead Park, Ferndale, WA", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact name/alias and explicit university team", "age_days": 27 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "tfrrs:2026/27790/Men 8k", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "WWU Bill Roe Classic 2026", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1698.4, "name_raw": "Evan Iacobelli", "team": "UBCO", "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/27790/WWU_Bill_Roe_Classic_2026", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact name/alias and explicit university team", "age_days": 27 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: WWU Bill Roe Classic 2026 on 2026-09-26 (8 km, 28:18.4). 1 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "alberta:16360", "name": "Adam Stang", "place": 80, "estimated_gap_percent": 1.39, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6838", "name": "Riley Schoettler", "place": 81, "estimated_gap_percent": 1.19, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6613", "name": "Jose Mateo Trejo Monroy", "place": 83, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.67, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "regina:12435", "name": "Rhys Naughton", "place": 84, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.88, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.478522625363749, "race_score": 7.478522625363749, "sigma": 0.037000000000000005, "uninformative_place_low": 63, "uninformative_place_high": 97, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5114", "key": "ethan|koehn", "name": "Ethan Koehn", "team_id": "ubc-okanagan", "team": "University of British Columbia Okanagan", "team_short": "UBC Okanagan", "profile_url": "https://goheat.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=5114", "roster_url": "https://goheat.ca/sports/mens-cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "corroborated", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "Source-backed identity link supplied.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": null, "team_selection_order": 9, "forecast_status": "unknown", "unknown_reason": "no_current_xc", "place": null, "place_low": null, "place_high": null, "win_probability": null, "basis": { "kind": "historical_pb", "mark": { "event_id": "anet:2026/meet-670911/Mens U20 3000 Meters", "date": "2026-07-05", "race": "2026 BCA TF Champs", "event": "Mens U20 3000 Meters", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 3.0, "time_s": 560.62, "name_raw": "Ethan Koehn", "team": "Valley Royals Track & Field Club", "source_url": "https://www.athletic.net/TrackAndField/meet/670911/results/m/16/3000m", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 110 } }, "uncertainty": "Current fitness unknown. Shown after supported estimates without a finishing-position claim.", "race_results": [], "personal_bests": [ { "event_id": "anet:2026/meet-670911/Mens U20 3000 Meters", "date": "2026-07-05", "race": "2026 BCA TF Champs", "event": "Mens U20 3000 Meters", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 3.0, "time_s": 560.62, "name_raw": "Ethan Koehn", "team": "Valley Royals Track & Field Club", "source_url": "https://www.athletic.net/TrackAndField/meet/670911/results/m/16/3000m", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 110 } ], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Unknown current form: no qualifying current XC result.", "Historical background: 2026 BCA TF Champs on 2026-07-05 (3 km, 9:20.6). 0 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Older performances are background ability, not evidence of current fitness. A recent XC race can change this status.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5111", "name": "Basil Parkins", "place": 71, "estimated_gap_percent": null, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5108", "name": "John Kwon", "place": 64, "estimated_gap_percent": null, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.440921613922778, "race_score": 7.440921613922778, "sigma": 0.08052511415525114, "uninformative_place_low": 7, "uninformative_place_high": 98, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5108", "key": "john|kwon", "name": "John Kwon", "team_id": "ubc-okanagan", "team": "University of British Columbia Okanagan", "team_short": "UBC Okanagan", "profile_url": "https://goheat.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=5108", "roster_url": "https://goheat.ca/sports/mens-cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 3, "team_selection_order": 3, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 64, "place_low": 39, "place_high": 84, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1647.0, "name_raw": "KWON, John", "team": "UBC OKANAGAN", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1647.0, "name_raw": "KWON, John", "team": "UBC OKANAGAN", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "tfrrs:2026/27790/Men 8k", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "WWU Bill Roe Classic 2026", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1620.8, "name_raw": "John Kwon", "team": "UBCO", "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/27790/WWU_Bill_Roe_Classic_2026", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact name/alias and explicit university team", "age_days": 27 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 27:27.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "alberta:16355", "name": "Daniel Gutierrez", "place": 62, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.04, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5109", "name": "Justin Monteleone", "place": 63, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.01, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 6.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "WWU Bill Roe Classic 2026", "gap_s": -7.5, "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/27790/WWU_Bill_Roe_Classic_2026", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13382", "name": "Noah Smith", "place": 65, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.13, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -9.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13371", "name": "Max Holmes", "place": 66, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.23, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -24.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.432447039661894, "race_score": 7.432447039661894, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 39, "uninformative_place_high": 84, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5109", "key": "justin|monteleone", "name": "Justin Monteleone", "team_id": "ubc-okanagan", "team": "University of British Columbia Okanagan", "team_short": "UBC Okanagan", "profile_url": "https://goheat.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=5109", "roster_url": "https://goheat.ca/sports/mens-cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 2, "team_selection_order": 2, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 63, "place_low": 38, "place_high": 84, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1641.0, "name_raw": "MONTELEONE, Justin", "team": "UBC OKANAGAN", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1641.0, "name_raw": "MONTELEONE, Justin", "team": "UBC OKANAGAN", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "tfrrs:2026/27790/Men 8k", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "WWU Bill Roe Classic 2026", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1628.3, "name_raw": "Justin Monteleone", "team": "UBCO", "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/27790/WWU_Bill_Roe_Classic_2026", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact name/alias and explicit university team", "age_days": 27 }, { "event_id": "ss:2026/kelowna-wine-country-half-marathon/Half Marathon", "date": "2026-06-13", "race": "Kelowna Wine Country Half Marathon", "event": "Half Marathon", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 21.0975, "time_s": 4726.0, "name_raw": "Justin Monteleone", "team": "Kelowna, BC", "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 132 }, { "event_id": "ss:2026/vancouver-sun-run/10 km", "date": "2026-04-19", "race": "Vancouver Sun Run", "event": "10 km", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 10.0, "time_s": 2025.52, "name_raw": "Justin Monteleone", "team": "Kelowna, BC", "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 187 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1689.1, "name_raw": "Justin Monteleone", "team": "Ubc Okanagan Heat", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 }, { "event_id": "slt:2025/spiritrun/8K-Open", "date": "2025-09-28", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K-Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1504.0, "name_raw": "MONTELEONE, Justin", "team": "UBCO", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/spiritrun/event/8K-Open", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 390 }, { "event_id": "ss:2025/kelowna-wine-country-half-marathon/Half Marathon", "date": "2025-06-14", "race": "Kelowna Wine Country Half Marathon", "event": "Half Marathon", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 21.0975, "time_s": 4541.0, "name_raw": "Justin Monteleone", "team": "Kelowna, BC", "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 496 }, { "event_id": "ss:2024/kelowna-wine-country-half-marathon/Half Marathon", "date": "2024-06-15", "race": "Kelowna Wine Country Half Marathon", "event": "Half Marathon", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 21.0975, "time_s": 4645.0, "name_raw": "Justin Monteleone", "team": "Kelowna, BC", "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 860 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 27:21.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "ubc:13379", "name": "Arata Nakanishi", "place": 61, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.23, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -4.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16355", "name": "Daniel Gutierrez", "place": 62, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.03, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5108", "name": "John Kwon", "place": 64, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.01, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -6.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "WWU Bill Roe Classic 2026", "gap_s": 7.5, "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/27790/WWU_Bill_Roe_Classic_2026", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13382", "name": "Noah Smith", "place": 65, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.14, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -15.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.432335186226209, "race_score": 7.432335186226209, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 38, "uninformative_place_high": 84, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5115", "key": "henry|nestmann", "name": "Henry Nestmann", "team_id": "ubc-okanagan", "team": "University of British Columbia Okanagan", "team_short": "UBC Okanagan", "profile_url": "https://goheat.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=5115", "roster_url": "https://goheat.ca/sports/mens-cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 5, "team_selection_order": 5, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 73, "place_low": 54, "place_high": 90, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/bcxcchamp/U20", "date": "2026-10-17", "race": "BC Athletics Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1678.0, "name_raw": "NESTMANN, Henry", "team": "OCEAN ATHLETICS TRACK & FIELD CLUB", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/U20", "venue": "Arbutus Meadows Farm, Nanoose Bay, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 6 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/bcxcchamp/U20", "date": "2026-10-17", "race": "BC Athletics Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1678.0, "name_raw": "NESTMANN, Henry", "team": "OCEAN ATHLETICS TRACK & FIELD CLUB", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/U20", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 6 }, { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1694.0, "name_raw": "NESTMANN, Henry", "team": "UBC OKANAGAN", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "fvxc:2025/ramble/Open/Masters 6.2K", "date": "2025-11-16", "race": "Fraser Valley Cross Country Ramble 2025", "event": "Open/Masters 6.2K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 6.2, "time_s": 1295.0, "name_raw": "Henry Nestmann", "team": "Ocean Athletics", "source_url": null, "venue": "Clearbrook Park, Abbotsford, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 341 }, { "event_id": "milesplit:2025/716111/MEN 16-17 5000 METER RUN", "date": "2025-09-20", "race": "Festival of Cross Country 2025", "event": "MEN 16-17 5000 METER RUN", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 5.0, "time_s": 1175.57, "name_raw": "Henry Nestmann", "team": "Oatf - Ocean", "source_url": null, "venue": "Crescent Park, Surrey, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 398 }, { "event_id": "ss:2023/granville-island-turkey-trot/10 km", "date": "2023-10-09", "race": "Granville Island Turkey Trot", "event": "10 km", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 10.0, "time_s": 2222.0, "name_raw": "Henry Nestmann", "team": "Delta, BC", "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 1110 }, { "event_id": "ss:2023/vancouver-sun-run/10 km", "date": "2023-04-16", "race": "Vancouver Sun Run", "event": "10 km", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 10.0, "time_s": 2253.0, "name_raw": "Henry Nestmann", "team": "Delta, BC", "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 1286 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: BC Athletics Cross Country Championships on 2026-10-17 (8 km, 27:58.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5111", "name": "Basil Parkins", "place": 71, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.42, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 14.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "regina:12436", "name": "Kristian Richards", "place": 72, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.15, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 20.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16359", "name": "Ethan Randall", "place": 74, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.31, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "calgary:17456", "name": "Kai Deausy", "place": 75, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.36, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.451681812057149, "race_score": 7.451681812057149, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 54, "uninformative_place_high": 90, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5110", "key": "ethan|nozick", "name": "Ethan Nozick", "team_id": "ubc-okanagan", "team": "University of British Columbia Okanagan", "team_short": "UBC Okanagan", "profile_url": "https://goheat.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=5110", "roster_url": "https://goheat.ca/sports/mens-cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 1, "team_selection_order": 1, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 34, "place_low": 19, "place_high": 67, "win_probability": 0.0001, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1595.0, "name_raw": "NOZICK, Ethan", "team": "UBC OKANAGAN", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1595.0, "name_raw": "NOZICK, Ethan", "team": "UBC OKANAGAN", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "tfrrs:2026/27790/Men 8k", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "WWU Bill Roe Classic 2026", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1581.9, "name_raw": "Ethan Nozick", "team": "UBCO", "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/27790/WWU_Bill_Roe_Classic_2026", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact name/alias and explicit university team", "age_days": 27 }, { "event_id": "racestats:2026/tc10k/TC10K", "date": "2026-04-26", "race": "TC10K", "event": "TC10K", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 10.0, "time_s": 1955.0, "name_raw": "Ethan Nozick", "team": null, "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 180 }, { "event_id": "smx:2025/acxc/U20 Men 8km (U20)", "date": "2025-11-29", "race": "2025 Canadian Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20 Men 8km (U20)", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1646.2, "name_raw": "Ethan Nozick", "team": "BC Prairie Inn Harriers Racing Team", "source_url": null, "venue": "Fanshawe Golf Course, London, ON", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 328 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1696.8, "name_raw": "Ethan Nozick", "team": "Ubc Okanagan Heat", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 }, { "event_id": "slt:2025/bcxcchamp/U20", "date": "2025-10-18", "race": "BC Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1558.0, "name_raw": "NOZICK, Ethan", "team": "PRAIRIE INN HARRIERS RACING TEAM", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/bcxcchamp/event/U20", "venue": "Vernon, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 370 }, { "event_id": "slt:2025/spiritrun/8K-Open", "date": "2025-09-28", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K-Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1438.0, "name_raw": "NOZICK, Ethan", "team": "UBCO", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/spiritrun/event/8K-Open", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 390 }, { "event_id": "racestats:2022/tc10k/TC10K", "date": "2022-04-24", "race": "TC10K", "event": "TC10K", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 10.0, "time_s": 2100.0, "name_raw": "Ethan Nozick", "team": null, "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 1643 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": { "profile_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/128104087", "strava_id": "128104087", "identity_status": "inferred_strongest_available_match", "identity_confidence": "medium-low", "identity_basis": { "status": "inferred_strongest_available_match", "confidence": "medium-low", "confidence_is": "Qualitative evidence assessment; not a calibrated probability.", "strava_id": "128104087", "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/128104087", "basis": { "display_name": "Ethan Nozick", "location": " Victoria | Kelowna, British Columbia, Canada", "clubs": [], "bio": { "owner_id": "128104087", "scope": "profile-bio", "text": "UBCO XC" } }, "alternatives": [], "selection_rule": "Explicit corresponding XC/track club or bio, then matching locale, then visible running history; no selection by forecast error." }, "capture_complete": false, "recent28_km": null, "previous56_km": null, "logged_weekly_km28": null, "run_days28": null, "runs28": null, "longest28_km": null, "latest_visible_run": null, "weeks": [ { "start": "2026-09-14", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-21", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-09-21", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-28", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-09-28", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-05", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-05", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-12", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-12", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-19", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-19", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "partial": true, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] } ], "observation_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "sessions": [], "limitation": "Visible uploaded running only; missing uploads, private activities and unrecorded training remain unknown. Empty calendar bins do not establish rest or injury.", "window_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "capture_fresh": true, "calendar_capture_complete": false, "collection_status": "fresh" }, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 26:35.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "victoria:8055", "name": "Mackenzie Lascelle", "place": 32, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.06, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6609", "name": "Colin Stock", "place": 33, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.04, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -4.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "regina:12422", "name": "Jacob Klassen", "place": 35, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.1, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -7.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "regina:12432", "name": "William Barnes", "place": 36, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.13, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -4.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.403698625970675, "race_score": 7.403698625970675, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 19, "uninformative_place_high": 67, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5111", "key": "basil|parkins", "name": "Basil Parkins", "team_id": "ubc-okanagan", "team": "University of British Columbia Okanagan", "team_short": "UBC Okanagan", "profile_url": "https://goheat.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=5111", "roster_url": "https://goheat.ca/sports/mens-cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 4, "team_selection_order": 4, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 71, "place_low": 51, "place_high": 89, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1680.0, "name_raw": "PARKINS, Basil", "team": "UBC OKANAGAN", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1680.0, "name_raw": "PARKINS, Basil", "team": "UBC OKANAGAN", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "tfrrs:2026/27790/Men 8k", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "WWU Bill Roe Classic 2026", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1634.7, "name_raw": "Basil Parkins", "team": "UBCO", "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/27790/WWU_Bill_Roe_Classic_2026", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact name/alias and explicit university team", "age_days": 27 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1774.2, "name_raw": "Basil Parkins", "team": "Ubc Okanagan Heat", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 }, { "event_id": "slt:2025/spiritrun/8K-Open", "date": "2025-09-28", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K-Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1529.0, "name_raw": "PARKINS, Basil", "team": "UBCO", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/spiritrun/event/8K-Open", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 390 }, { "event_id": "arc:2024/bcxcchamp/Senior Men", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "BC Athletics Cross Country Championships", "event": "Senior Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1758.96, "name_raw": "Parkins, Basil", "team": "UBC Okanagan Heat", "source_url": null, "venue": "Vernon, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 }, { "event_id": "slt:2024/spiritrun/8K-Open", "date": "2024-09-22", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K-Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1840.0, "name_raw": "PARKINS, Basil", "team": "UBCO", "source_url": null, "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 761 }, { "event_id": "arc:2023/bcxcchamp/U20 Men", "date": "2023-10-14", "race": "BC Athletics Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20 Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1679.0, "name_raw": "Parkins, Basil", "team": "UBC Okanagan Heat", "source_url": null, "venue": "Surrey, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 1105 } ], "personal_bests": [ { "event_id": "anet:2026/meet-653452/Mens Collegiate 1500 Meters", "date": "2026-04-11", "race": "Battle of Sparta", "event": "Mens Collegiate 1500 Meters", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.5, "time_s": 243.27, "name_raw": "Basil Parkins", "team": "Unattached", "source_url": "https://www.athletic.net/TrackAndField/meet/653452/results/m/1/1500m", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 195 } ], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 28:00.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "alberta:16367", "name": "Noah Heuver", "place": 69, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.86, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6610", "name": "Markus Thompson", "place": 70, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.84, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 22.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "regina:12436", "name": "Kristian Richards", "place": 72, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.27, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 6.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5115", "name": "Henry Nestmann", "place": 73, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.42, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -14.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.447449721396564, "race_score": 7.447449721396564, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 51, "uninformative_place_high": 89, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5116", "key": "ethan|peregrym", "name": "Ethan Peregrym", "team_id": "ubc-okanagan", "team": "University of British Columbia Okanagan", "team_short": "UBC Okanagan", "profile_url": "https://goheat.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=5116", "roster_url": "https://goheat.ca/sports/mens-cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 6, "team_selection_order": 6, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 76, "place_low": 59, "place_high": 92, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/bcxcchamp/U20", "date": "2026-10-17", "race": "BC Athletics Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1714.0, "name_raw": "PEREGRYM, Ethan", "team": "KAMLOOPS TRACK & FIELD CLUB", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/U20", "venue": "Arbutus Meadows Farm, Nanoose Bay, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 6 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/bcxcchamp/U20", "date": "2026-10-17", "race": "BC Athletics Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1714.0, "name_raw": "PEREGRYM, Ethan", "team": "KAMLOOPS TRACK & FIELD CLUB", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/U20", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 6 }, { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1667.0, "name_raw": "PEREGRYM, Ethan", "team": "UBC OKANAGAN", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "tfrrs:2026/27790/Men 8k", "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "WWU Bill Roe Classic 2026", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1653.8, "name_raw": "Ethan Peregrym", "team": "UBCO", "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/27790/WWU_Bill_Roe_Classic_2026", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact name/alias and explicit university team", "age_days": 27 }, { "event_id": "ss:2026/vancouver-sun-run/10 km", "date": "2026-04-19", "race": "Vancouver Sun Run", "event": "10 km", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 10.0, "time_s": 2026.78, "name_raw": "Ethan Peregrym", "team": "Kamloops, BC", "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 187 }, { "event_id": "ss:2024/vancouver-sun-run/10 km", "date": "2024-04-21", "race": "Vancouver Sun Run", "event": "10 km", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 10.0, "time_s": 2066.0, "name_raw": "Ethan Peregrym", "team": "Kamloops, BC", "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 915 } ], "personal_bests": [ { "event_id": null, "date": "2024-04-06", "race": null, "event": "1600 Meters", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.6, "time_s": 289.11, "name_raw": "Ethan Peregrym", "team": null, "source_url": "https://www.athletic.net/athlete/22078753/track-and-field/", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 930 }, { "event_id": "anet:2026/meet-670911/Mens U20 3000 Meters", "date": "2026-07-05", "race": "2026 BCA TF Champs", "event": "Mens U20 3000 Meters", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 3.0, "time_s": 559.62, "name_raw": "Ethan Peregrym", "team": "Kamloops Track & Field Club", "source_url": "https://www.athletic.net/TrackAndField/meet/670911/results/m/16/3000m", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 110 }, { "event_id": null, "date": "2024-04-06", "race": null, "event": "3200 Meters", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 3.2, "time_s": 612.09, "name_raw": "Ethan Peregrym", "team": null, "source_url": "https://www.athletic.net/athlete/22078753/track-and-field/", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 930 } ], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": { "profile_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/1971039313", "strava_id": "1971039313", "identity_status": "verified_existing_source_review", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": [ { "kind": "owner_bound_race_correspondence", "source_path": "data/usports/2026-10-23/training/national/raw/1971039313/202609.txt", "source_sha256": "3db0b8c1a19a0d571c0ffa73de6b546b81ec3802e6e604c7946b4cf2f4002489", "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/1971039313/interval?interval=202609&interval_type=month&chart_type=miles&year_offset=0", "activity_id": "20063028329", "activity_url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20063028329", "owner_strava_id": "1971039313", "owner_name": "Ethan Peregrym", "owner_pointer": "appContext.preFetchedEntries[19].rowData.activities[0].athlete_id_str", "activity_title": "Fast Days of Summer 5km. Season opener, 16:18.", "activity_date": "2026-09-06", "watch_distance_km": 4.99, "watch_moving_s": 979, "activity_source_time_label": "Time", "watch_precision": "rounded interval display; time label preserved", "official_result": { "path": "data/raw/www.startlinetiming.com/en__races__2026__fastdays__event__5K.html", "sha256": "4c750dc6bd9536acd4cf95f5e1b90c13852f9d0e79e3909aac2b0bde787d342c", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/fastdays/event/5K", "event_id": "slt:2026/fastdays/5K", "name_raw": "PEREGRYM, Ethan", "date": "2026-09-06", "distance_km": 5.0, "distance_evidence": "Event5K cell and source og:title Fast Days of Summer -2026 -5K", "gender": "M", "division": "M1619", "clock_raw": "0:16:18", "time_s": 978.0, "gun_time_s": 978.0, "chip_time_s": 978.0, "time_basis": "Gun Time; Chip Time independently equal", "source_row_ordinal": 7, "source_header": [ "Event", "Place", "Gun Time", "Race #", "Name", "Division", "Place/Gender", "Place/Division", "Chip Time" ], "source_cells": [ "5K", "8/154", "0:16:18", "5886", "PEREGRYM, Ethan Kamloops, BC", "M1619", "8/98", "3/13", "0:16:18" ], "school_in_timer": false }, "existing_history_eligibility": { "identity_eligible": false, "finishing_time_eligible": false, "exclusion_reasons": [ "unverified_name_variant_or_merged_identity" ], "name_raw": "PEREGRYM, Ethan Kamloops, BC", "policy": "Existing row remains withheld; independent primary-anchor proof establishes identity only and does not change model observation eligibility." }, "clock_difference_s": 1.0, "distance_relative_difference": -0.0020000000000000018, "named_race": true, "roster_corroboration": { "source_path": "data/usports/2026-10-23/canwest/ubco-men.html", "source_sha256": "51d9755bad1e23e11aaafe5b05e42d33a2f573035012cad540535450b01a638f", "source_url": "https://goheat.ca/sports/mens-cross-country/roster", "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5116", "name": "Ethan Peregrym", "team": "UBC Okanagan", "season": "2026-27", "season_heading": "2026-27 Men's Cross Country/Track Roster - University of British Columbia Okanagan", "profile_id": "5116", "profile_url": "https://goheat.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=5116", "source_person": { "@type": "Person", "@context": "http://schema.org", "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://goheat.ca/images/2026/9/22/Peregrym_Ethan26.jpg", "width": 80, "height": 102 }, "name": "Ethan Peregrym", "gender": "M", "url": "https://goheat.ca/roster.aspx?rp_id=5116" } }, "correspondence_fact": "Exact owner ID and literal owner/roster/timer name; explicit named race on same absolute date;4.99km watch vs5km source;979s displayed watch Time vs978s official gun/chip. No geography used.", "limitation": "Official school corroboration is the current official roster, not a school field in the road-race timer. Watch clock is retained separately and is not a forecast observation." } ], "capture_complete": true, "recent28_km": 102.43, "previous56_km": 302.94, "logged_weekly_km28": 25.6, "run_days28": 12, "runs28": 13, "longest28_km": 16.5, "latest_visible_run": "2026-10-20", "weeks": [ { "start": "2026-09-14", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-21", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 56.83, "runs": 7, "run_days": 6, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20178624257", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20193720638", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20194027204", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20207928161", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20220939534", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20245264431", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20258716423" ] }, { "start": "2026-09-21", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-28", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 22.56, "runs": 5, "run_days": 4, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20289485057", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20304564607", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20317794158", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20317794327", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20331293383" ] }, { "start": "2026-09-28", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-05", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 51.98, "runs": 5, "run_days": 5, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20372435315", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20385969344", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20414145185", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20427410004", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20436757706" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-05", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-12", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 39.08, "runs": 6, "run_days": 5, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20468935803", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20481920642", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20497735843", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20497735844", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20518572935", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20520574899" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-12", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-19", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-19", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "partial": true, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 8.01, "runs": 1, "run_days": 1, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20669397085" ] } ], "observation_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "sessions": [], "limitation": "Visible uploaded running only; missing uploads, private activities and unrecorded training remain unknown. Empty calendar bins do not establish rest or injury.", "window_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "capture_fresh": true, "calendar_capture_complete": true, "collection_status": "fresh" }, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: BC Athletics Cross Country Championships on 2026-10-17 (8 km, 28:34.0). 3 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Visible running averages 25.6 km/week in the current 28-day window. The complete captured window permits a small logged-volume trend adjustment." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "alberta:16359", "name": "Ethan Randall", "place": 74, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.32, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "calgary:17456", "name": "Kai Deausy", "place": 75, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.27, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "calgary:17463", "name": "Sam Prezio", "place": 77, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.41, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5105", "name": "Brody Cormier", "place": 78, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.44, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -17.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "WWU Bill Roe Classic 2026", "gap_s": -33.6, "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/27790/WWU_Bill_Roe_Classic_2026", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.45799589975488, "race_score": 7.454866236178156, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 59, "uninformative_place_high": 92, "training_log_adjustment": 0.003129663576723925, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8071", "key": "joe|accardo", "name": "Joe Accardo", "team_id": "victoria", "team": "University of Victoria", "team_short": "Victoria", "profile_url": "https://govikesgo.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=8071", "roster_url": "https://govikesgo.com/sports/mens-cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 8, "team_selection_order": 8, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 12, "place_low": 9, "place_high": 47, "win_probability": 0.00075, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "tfrrs:2026/28610/Men 8000", "date": "2026-10-09", "race": "2026 Bill Dellinger Invitational", "event": "Men 8000", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1538.9, "name_raw": "Joe Accardo", "team": "U. of Victoria", "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28610/2026_Bill_Dellinger_Invitational", "venue": "Pine Ridge Golf Course, Springfield, OR", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact name/alias and explicit university team", "age_days": 14 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "tfrrs:2026/28610/Men 8000", "date": "2026-10-09", "race": "2026 Bill Dellinger Invitational", "event": "Men 8000", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1538.9, "name_raw": "Joe Accardo", "team": "U. of Victoria", "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28610/2026_Bill_Dellinger_Invitational", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact name/alias and explicit university team", "age_days": 14 }, { "event_id": "slt:2026/spiritrun/8K - Open", "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K - Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1640.0, "name_raw": "ACCARDO, Joe", "team": "UVIC", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 26 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: 2026 Bill Dellinger Invitational on 2026-10-09 (8 km, 25:38.9). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "victoria:8051", "name": "Nolan Galloway", "place": 10, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.8, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-09", "race": "2026 Bill Dellinger Invitational", "gap_s": -16.4, "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28610/2026_Bill_Dellinger_Invitational", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "gap_s": 44.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8048", "name": "Mitchell Erickson", "place": 11, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.74, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-09", "race": "2026 Bill Dellinger Invitational", "gap_s": -17.5, "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28610/2026_Bill_Dellinger_Invitational", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "gap_s": 48.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "regina:12427", "name": "Alec Teichler", "place": 13, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.07, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8072", "name": "Rhys Beaudoin", "place": 14, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.23, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "gap_s": 41.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.379099070988779, "race_score": 7.379099070988779, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 9, "uninformative_place_high": 47, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8072", "key": "rhys|beaudoin", "name": "Rhys Beaudoin", "team_id": "victoria", "team": "University of Victoria", "team_short": "Victoria", "profile_url": "https://govikesgo.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=8072", "roster_url": "https://govikesgo.com/sports/mens-cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 9, "team_selection_order": 9, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 14, "place_low": 10, "place_high": 49, "win_probability": 0.00065, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/bcxcchamp/U20", "date": "2026-10-17", "race": "BC Athletics Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1595.0, "name_raw": "BEAUDOIN, Rhys", "team": "NANAIMO & DISTRICT TRACK & FIELD CLUB", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/U20", "venue": "Arbutus Meadows Farm, Nanoose Bay, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 6 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/bcxcchamp/U20", "date": "2026-10-17", "race": "BC Athletics Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1595.0, "name_raw": "BEAUDOIN, Rhys", "team": "NANAIMO & DISTRICT TRACK & FIELD CLUB", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/U20", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 6 }, { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1553.0, "name_raw": "BEAUDOIN, Rhys", "team": "VICTORIA VIKES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "slt:2026/spiritrun/8K - 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These are identity checks, not forecast-error comparisons." }, { "kind": "owner_bound_race_correspondence", "source_path": "data/usports/2026-10-23/training/national/raw/128874234/202610.txt", "source_sha256": "cd6e3f8801f1e551a94787fe35b4113897a3b75a459df5661141d8d74feed972", "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/128874234/interval?interval=202610&interval_type=month&chart_type=miles&year_offset=0", "activity_id": "20627054589", "activity_url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20627054589", "owner_strava_id": "128874234", "owner_name": "Rhys Beaudoin", "activity_title": "I’ve been second my whole life", "activity_date": "2026-10-17", "watch_distance_km": 8.0, "watch_moving_s": 1593, "official_result": { "path": "data/raw/www.startlinetiming.com/en__races__2026__bcxcchamp__event__U20.html", "sha256": "0a42e08bc21ad89d1ec3ff18db4064b7a7abe80624c75a40308a59b063ec9af5", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/U20", "name_raw": "BEAUDOIN, Rhys", "team_raw": "NANAIMO & DISTRICT TRACK & FIELD CLUB", "clock_raw": "0:26:35", "time_s": 1595.0, "event_id": "slt:2026/bcxcchamp/U20", "date": "2026-10-17", "distance_km": 8.0 }, "clock_difference_s": -2.0, "named_race": false, "ownership_fact": "Entry activity athleteId or group row athlete_id_str equals this mapped Strava ID; entries owned by other group members rejected.", "correspondence_fact": "Exact owner/source name correspondence; same official race date; near source distance; clock difference retained explicitly. These are identity checks, not forecast-error comparisons." }, { "kind": "owner_bound_race_correspondence", "source_path": "data/usports/2026-10-23/training/national/raw/128874234/202610.txt", "source_sha256": "cd6e3f8801f1e551a94787fe35b4113897a3b75a459df5661141d8d74feed972", "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/128874234/interval?interval=202610&interval_type=month&chart_type=miles&year_offset=0", "activity_id": "20533664349", "activity_url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20533664349", "owner_strava_id": "128874234", "owner_name": "Rhys Beaudoin", "activity_title": "D1 cornering skills", "activity_date": "2026-10-10", "watch_distance_km": 7.98, "watch_moving_s": 1555, "official_result": { "path": "data/raw/www.startlinetiming.com/en__races__2026__ubcfarmfest__event__Mens_8K.html", "sha256": "ceba8cbaee5ef59f0119dde5ac6abcbaf000240d5a1dcf6f7bc4be1901a4e97b", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "name_raw": "BEAUDOIN, Rhys", "team_raw": "VICTORIA VIKES", "clock_raw": "0:25:53", "time_s": 1553.0, "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "distance_km": 8.0 }, "clock_difference_s": 2.0, "named_race": false, "ownership_fact": "Entry activity athleteId or group row athlete_id_str equals this mapped Strava ID; entries owned by other group members rejected.", "correspondence_fact": "Exact owner/source name correspondence; same official race date; near source distance; clock difference retained explicitly. These are identity checks, not forecast-error comparisons." } ], "capture_complete": true, "recent28_km": 312.43, "previous56_km": 642.68, "logged_weekly_km28": 78.1, "run_days28": 24, "runs28": 30, "longest28_km": 19.73, "latest_visible_run": "2026-10-21", "weeks": [ { "start": "2026-09-14", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-21", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 89.43, "runs": 7, "run_days": 6, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20177033228", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20193465202", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20206198104", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20233585442", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20245531669", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20247540723", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20259152776" ] }, { "start": "2026-09-21", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-28", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 69.84, "runs": 8, "run_days": 6, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20274090434", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20289648668", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20302966206", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20329923483", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20343088430", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20357041275", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20357041311", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20357367315" ] }, { "start": "2026-09-28", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-05", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 87.56, "runs": 6, "run_days": 6, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20371935442", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20386110525", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20398022022", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20426196060", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20439126593", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20452420994" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-05", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-12", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 70.06, "runs": 8, "run_days": 6, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20467109575", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20482388646", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20498328940", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20520800474", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20533664349", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20533664373", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20533664377", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20547007585" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-12", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-19", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 77.58, "runs": 8, "run_days": 6, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20558675374", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20576728727", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20588094668", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20615097447", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20627054575", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20627054589", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20627054605", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20638951178" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-19", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "partial": true, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 41.02, "runs": 3, "run_days": 3, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20653359057", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20668966720", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20680772979" ] } ], "observation_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "sessions": [], "limitation": "Visible uploaded running only; missing uploads, private activities and unrecorded training remain unknown. Empty calendar bins do not establish rest or injury.", "window_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "capture_fresh": true, "calendar_capture_complete": true, "collection_status": "fresh" }, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: BC Athletics Cross Country Championships on 2026-10-17 (8 km, 26:35.0). 3 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Visible running averages 78.1 km/week in the current 28-day window. The complete captured window permits a small logged-volume trend adjustment." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "victoria:8071", "name": "Joe Accardo", "place": 12, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.24, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "gap_s": -41.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "regina:12427", "name": "Alec Teichler", "place": 13, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.16, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 3.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "calgary:17461", "name": "Ethan Meyer", "place": 15, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.02, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 14.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13387", "name": "Ryerson Stockton-Thomas", "place": 16, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.19, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -23.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "gap_s": -6.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.38144960926061, "race_score": 7.381224654792366, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 10, "uninformative_place_high": 49, "training_log_adjustment": 0.00022495446824383927, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8045", "key": "tyler|browne", "name": "Tyler Browne", "team_id": "victoria", "team": "University of Victoria", "team_short": "Victoria", "profile_url": "https://govikesgo.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=8045", "roster_url": "https://govikesgo.com/sports/mens-cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 2, "team_selection_order": 2, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 3, "place_low": 2, "place_high": 15, "win_probability": 0.0469, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "tfrrs:2026/28610/Men 8000", "date": "2026-10-09", "race": "2026 Bill Dellinger Invitational", "event": "Men 8000", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1475.7, "name_raw": "Tyler Browne", "team": "U. of Victoria", "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28610/2026_Bill_Dellinger_Invitational", "venue": "Pine Ridge Golf Course, Springfield, OR", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact name/alias and explicit university team", "age_days": 14 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; 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missing uploads, private activities and unrecorded training remain unknown. Empty calendar bins do not establish rest or injury.", "window_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "capture_fresh": true, "calendar_capture_complete": false, "collection_status": "fresh" }, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: 2026 Bill Dellinger Invitational on 2026-10-09 (8 km, 24:35.7). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Visible running averages 103.1 km/week in the current 28-day window. Calendar coverage or source freshness is incomplete, so no volume trend is applied." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "ubc:13366", "name": "Maximilien Filion", "place": 1, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.96, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8053", "name": "Jaxon Kuchar", "place": 2, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.96, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-09", "race": "2026 Bill Dellinger Invitational", "gap_s": 4.9, "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28610/2026_Bill_Dellinger_Invitational", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "gap_s": 27.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8074", "name": "Daniel Damian", "place": 4, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.7, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-09", "race": "2026 Bill Dellinger Invitational", "gap_s": -26.1, "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28610/2026_Bill_Dellinger_Invitational", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "regina:12428", "name": "Ian Teichler", "place": 5, "estimated_gap_percent": -1.36, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.3327873146292575, "race_score": 7.3327873146292575, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 2, "uninformative_place_high": 15, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8073", "key": "cai|collingwood", "name": "Cai Collingwood", "team_id": "victoria", "team": "University of Victoria", "team_short": "Victoria", "profile_url": "https://govikesgo.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=8073", "roster_url": "https://govikesgo.com/sports/mens-cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 17, "team_selection_order": 17, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 56, "place_low": 33, "place_high": 81, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1641.0, "name_raw": "COLLINGWOOD, Cai", "team": "VICTORIA VIKES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1641.0, "name_raw": "COLLINGWOOD, Cai", "team": "VICTORIA VIKES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "slt:2026/spiritrun/8K - Open", "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K - Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1676.0, "name_raw": "COLLINGWOOD, Cai", "team": "UVIC", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 26 }, { "event_id": "anet:2025/252564/Men's Varsity Gold avg 16:30-17:59", "date": "2025-10-11", "race": "Nike Hole in the Wall XC Invitational 2025", "event": "Men's Varsity Gold avg 16:30-17:59", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 5.0, "time_s": 960.9, "name_raw": "Cai Collingwood", "team": "Okanagan Mission Secondary", "source_url": null, "venue": "Lakewood High School, Arlington, WA", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 377 }, { "event_id": "ira:2025/summerland_sweets_7_4k/Summerland Sweets 7.4K", "date": "2025-09-21", "race": "Summerland Sweets 7.4K 2025", "event": "Summerland Sweets 7.4K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 7.4, "time_s": 1647.0, "name_raw": "Cai Collingwood", "team": "Kelowna", "source_url": null, "venue": "Summerland, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 397 } ], "personal_bests": [ { "event_id": null, "date": "2026-03-28", "race": null, "event": "1500 Meters", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.5, "time_s": 251.74, "name_raw": "Cai Collingwood", "team": null, "source_url": "https://www.athletic.net/athlete/26982072/track-and-field/", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 209 }, { "event_id": null, "date": "2025-04-26", "race": null, "event": "1600 Meters", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.6, "time_s": 267.35, "name_raw": "Cai Collingwood", "team": null, "source_url": "https://www.athletic.net/athlete/26765469/track-and-field/", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 545 } ], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": { "profile_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/147297648", "strava_id": "147297648", "identity_status": "verified_existing_source_review", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": [ { "kind": "owner_bound_race_correspondence", "source_path": "data/usports/2026-10-23/training/national/raw/147297648/202609.txt", "source_sha256": "6e17fa5b2e561a9e25e0454c314ea0b9dd81dadb15795525e5cbbee9a75f9deb", "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/147297648/interval?interval=202609&interval_type=month&chart_type=miles&year_offset=0", "activity_id": "20357877144", "activity_url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20357877144", "owner_strava_id": "147297648", "owner_name": "Cai Collingwood", "activity_title": "Steven here", "activity_date": "2026-09-27", "watch_distance_km": 8.19, "watch_moving_s": 1675, "official_result": { "path": "data/raw/www.startlinetiming.com/en__races__2026__spiritrun__event__8K_-_Open.html", "sha256": "7dad56c2792226cacba97424ba36036b6fb155a15f4b44c682fa347d171feb01", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "name_raw": "COLLINGWOOD, Cai", "team_raw": "UVIC", "clock_raw": "0:27:56", "time_s": 1676.0, "event_id": "slt:2026/spiritrun/8K - Open", "date": "2026-09-27", "distance_km": 8.0 }, "clock_difference_s": -1.0, "named_race": false, "ownership_fact": "Entry activity athleteId or group row athlete_id_str equals this mapped Strava ID; 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These are identity checks, not forecast-error comparisons." }, { "kind": "owner_bound_race_correspondence", "source_path": "data/usports/2026-10-23/training/national/raw/147297648/202610.txt", "source_sha256": "aa8ab1b731aaf5f3be931920d180bb17af0dc588c38eed8d85dc127464bdccf1", "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/147297648/interval?interval=202610&interval_type=month&chart_type=miles&year_offset=0", "activity_id": "20533345463", "activity_url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20533345463", "owner_strava_id": "147297648", "owner_name": "Cai Collingwood", "activity_title": "Afternoon Run", "activity_date": "2026-10-10", "watch_distance_km": 8.09, "watch_moving_s": 1641, "official_result": { "path": "data/raw/www.startlinetiming.com/en__races__2026__ubcfarmfest__event__Mens_8K.html", "sha256": "ceba8cbaee5ef59f0119dde5ac6abcbaf000240d5a1dcf6f7bc4be1901a4e97b", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "name_raw": "COLLINGWOOD, Cai", "team_raw": "VICTORIA VIKES", "clock_raw": "0:27:21", "time_s": 1641.0, "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "distance_km": 8.0 }, "clock_difference_s": 0.0, "named_race": false, "ownership_fact": "Entry activity athleteId or group row athlete_id_str equals this mapped Strava ID; entries owned by other group members rejected.", "correspondence_fact": "Exact owner/source name correspondence; same official race date; near source distance; clock difference retained explicitly. 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Empty calendar bins do not establish rest or injury.", "window_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "capture_fresh": true, "calendar_capture_complete": true, "collection_status": "fresh" }, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 27:21.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Visible running averages 57.4 km/week in the current 28-day window. 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No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.425682027030143, "race_score": 7.424936092337392, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 33, "uninformative_place_high": 81, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0007459346927505443, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8074", "key": "daniel|damian", "name": "Daniel Damian", "team_id": "victoria", "team": "University of Victoria", "team_short": "Victoria", "profile_url": "https://govikesgo.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=8074", "roster_url": "https://govikesgo.com/sports/mens-cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 3, "team_selection_order": 3, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 4, "place_low": 2, "place_high": 28, "win_probability": 0.0622, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "tfrrs:2026/28610/Men 8000", "date": "2026-10-09", "race": "2026 Bill Dellinger Invitational", "event": "Men 8000", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1501.8, "name_raw": "Daniel Damian", "team": "U. of Victoria", "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28610/2026_Bill_Dellinger_Invitational", "venue": "Pine Ridge Golf Course, Springfield, OR", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact name/alias and explicit university team", "age_days": 14 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; 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Calendar coverage or source freshness is incomplete, so no volume trend is applied." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "victoria:8053", "name": "Jaxon Kuchar", "place": 2, "estimated_gap_percent": 1.67, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-09", "race": "2026 Bill Dellinger Invitational", "gap_s": 31.0, "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28610/2026_Bill_Dellinger_Invitational", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8045", "name": "Tyler Browne", "place": 3, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.71, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-09", "race": "2026 Bill Dellinger Invitational", "gap_s": 26.1, "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28610/2026_Bill_Dellinger_Invitational", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "regina:12428", "name": "Ian Teichler", "place": 5, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.66, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8069", "name": "Jacob Webster", "place": 6, "estimated_gap_percent": -1.56, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-09", "race": "2026 Bill Dellinger Invitational", "gap_s": -16.8, "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28610/2026_Bill_Dellinger_Invitational", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.339852502723085, "race_score": 7.339852502723085, "sigma": 0.037000000000000005, "uninformative_place_low": 2, "uninformative_place_high": 28, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8075", "key": "alexander|damm", "name": "Alex Damm", "team_id": "victoria", "team": "University of Victoria", "team_short": "Victoria", "profile_url": "https://govikesgo.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=8075", "roster_url": "https://govikesgo.com/sports/mens-cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 15, "team_selection_order": 15, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 48, "place_low": 18, "place_high": 84, "win_probability": 0.0003, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/spiritrun/8K - Open", "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K - Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1672.0, "name_raw": "DAMM, Alex", "team": "UVIC", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 26 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/victoriamarathon/5K", "date": "2026-10-11", "race": "Royal Victoria Marathon", "event": "5K", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 5.0, "time_s": 1013.0, "name_raw": "DAMM, Alex", "team": "", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/victoriamarathon/event/5K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 12 }, { "event_id": "slt:2026/spiritrun/8K - Open", "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K - Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1672.0, "name_raw": "DAMM, Alex", "team": "UVIC", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 26 } ], "personal_bests": [ { "event_id": "anet:2026/meet-653452/Mens Collegiate 1500 Meters", "date": "2026-04-11", "race": "Battle of Sparta", "event": "Mens Collegiate 1500 Meters", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.5, "time_s": 246.18, "name_raw": "Alex Damm", "team": "Unattached", "source_url": "https://www.athletic.net/TrackAndField/meet/653452/results/m/1/1500m", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 195 }, { "event_id": "slt:2026/victoriamarathon/5K", "date": "2026-10-11", "race": "Royal Victoria Marathon", "event": "5K", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 5.0, "time_s": 1013.0, "name_raw": "DAMM, Alex", "team": "", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/victoriamarathon/event/5K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 12 } ], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: Vancouver Spirit Run on 2026-09-27 (8 km, 27:52.0). 1 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "alberta:16370", "name": "Jason Ushko", "place": 46, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.13, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13363", "name": "Andrew Corbeil", "place": 47, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.12, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "gap_s": 12.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6598", "name": "Colter Folk", "place": 49, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.03, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "calgary:17458", "name": "Edward Healy", "place": 50, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.05, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.4175671466423605, "race_score": 7.4175671466423605, "sigma": 0.037000000000000005, "uninformative_place_low": 18, "uninformative_place_high": 84, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8048", "key": "mitchell|erickson", "name": "Mitchell Erickson", "team_id": "victoria", "team": "University of Victoria", "team_short": "Victoria", "profile_url": "https://govikesgo.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=8048", "roster_url": "https://govikesgo.com/sports/mens-cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 7, "team_selection_order": 7, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 11, "place_low": 7, "place_high": 40, "win_probability": 0.00195, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "tfrrs:2026/28610/Men 8000", "date": "2026-10-09", "race": "2026 Bill Dellinger Invitational", "event": "Men 8000", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1556.4, "name_raw": "Mitchell Erickson", "team": "U. of Victoria", "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28610/2026_Bill_Dellinger_Invitational", "venue": "Pine Ridge Golf Course, Springfield, OR", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact name/alias and explicit university team", "age_days": 14 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "tfrrs:2026/28610/Men 8000", "date": "2026-10-09", "race": "2026 Bill Dellinger Invitational", "event": "Men 8000", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1556.4, "name_raw": "Mitchell Erickson", "team": "U. of Victoria", "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28610/2026_Bill_Dellinger_Invitational", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact name/alias and explicit university team", "age_days": 14 }, { "event_id": "slt:2026/spiritrun/8K - Open", "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K - Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1592.0, "name_raw": "ERICKSON, Mitchell", "team": "UVIC", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 26 }, { "event_id": "slt:2025/spiritrun/8K-Open", "date": "2025-09-28", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K-Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1467.0, "name_raw": "ERICKSON, Mitchell", "team": "UVIC", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/spiritrun/event/8K-Open", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 390 }, { "event_id": "smx:2024/acxc/U20 Men 8k (U20)", "date": "2024-12-01", "race": "2024 Canadian Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20 Men 8k (U20)", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1611.7, "name_raw": "Mitchell Erickson", "team": "Kootenay Chaos Track Club", "source_url": null, "venue": "Fanshawe Golf Course, London, ON", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 691 }, { "event_id": "arc:2024/bcxcchamp/U20 Men", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "BC Athletics Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20 Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1583.12, "name_raw": "Erickson, Mitchell", "team": "Kootenay Chaos Track Club", "source_url": null, "venue": "Vernon, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 } ], "personal_bests": [ { "event_id": "anet:2026/meet-626078/Mens Seeded 1 Mile", "date": "2026-01-30", "race": "2026 UW Invite / Mile City", "event": "Mens Seeded 1 Mile", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.609, "time_s": 258.99, "name_raw": "Mitchell Erickson", "team": "Victoria (B.C.)", "source_url": "https://www.athletic.net/TrackAndField/meet/626078/results/m/5/1mile", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 266 } ], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": { "profile_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/123734843", "strava_id": "123734843", "identity_status": "verified_existing_source_review", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": [ { "kind": "owner_bound_race_correspondence", "source_path": "data/usports/2026-10-23/training/national/raw/123734843/202609.txt", "source_sha256": "f4c429a208e787669647ed8efce442e349ca6f11dacacb3a43febf844993788d", "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/123734843/interval?interval=202609&interval_type=month&chart_type=miles&year_offset=0", "activity_id": "20357397583", "activity_url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20357397583", "owner_strava_id": "123734843", "owner_name": "Mitchell Erickson", "activity_title": "Spirit Run Sweep 🧹", "activity_date": "2026-09-27", "watch_distance_km": 8.28, "watch_moving_s": 1599, "official_result": { "path": "data/raw/www.startlinetiming.com/en__races__2026__spiritrun__event__8K_-_Open.html", "sha256": "7dad56c2792226cacba97424ba36036b6fb155a15f4b44c682fa347d171feb01", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "name_raw": "ERICKSON, Mitchell", "team_raw": "UVIC", "clock_raw": "0:26:32", "time_s": 1592.0, "event_id": "slt:2026/spiritrun/8K - Open", "date": "2026-09-27", "distance_km": 8.0 }, "clock_difference_s": 7.0, "named_race": true, "ownership_fact": "Entry activity athleteId or group row athlete_id_str equals this mapped Strava ID; entries owned by other group members rejected.", "correspondence_fact": "Exact owner/source name correspondence; same official race date; near source distance; clock difference retained explicitly. 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"https://www.strava.com/activities/20271050146", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20289859048", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20297995336", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20303005003", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20330024892", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20342484770", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20357397550", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20357397576", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20357397583" ] }, { "start": "2026-09-28", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-05", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 95.6, "runs": 7, "run_days": 6, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20367588929", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20383922637", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20397098523", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20420781700", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20426175902", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20436811923", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20452000311" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-05", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-12", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 79.2, "runs": 9, "run_days": 6, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20463713135", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20466510347", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20482183005", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20508774699", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20522551550", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20522551594", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20522551787", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20534849995", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20545769788" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-12", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-19", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 100.61, "runs": 7, "run_days": 6, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20557737754", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20575440410", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20588266267", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20614960353", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20628165757", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20638962783", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20640909751" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-19", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "partial": true, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 67.25, "runs": 5, "run_days": 4, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20650765299", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20653557294", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20668596058", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20680849165", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20706607239" ] } ], "observation_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "sessions": [ { "date": "2026-10-22", "name": "Reported interval session", "description": "", "url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20706607239/laps", "terrain": null, "effort": null, "recovery_s": null, "interpretation": null, "blocks": [], "forecast_use": "qualitative_only", "recorded_laps": [ { "index": 0, "source_lap": "0", "distance_m": 3340.0, "duration_s": 899.0, "displayed_pace": "4:29 /km", "net_elevation_m": -7.0, 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"duration_s": 33.0, "displayed_pace": "5:49 /km", "net_elevation_m": 0.0, "displayed_gap": null, "context_column": "Elev", "context_value": "0 m", "lap_type": "unknown", "part": "unclassified", "effort": null }, { "index": 5, "source_lap": "5", "distance_m": 160.0, "duration_s": 30.0, "displayed_pace": "3:06 /km", "net_elevation_m": -1.0, "displayed_gap": null, "context_column": "Elev", "context_value": "-1 m", "lap_type": "unknown", "part": "unclassified", "effort": null }, { "index": 6, "source_lap": "6", "distance_m": 90.0, "duration_s": 30.0, "displayed_pace": "5:23 /km", "net_elevation_m": 0.0, "displayed_gap": null, "context_column": "Elev", "context_value": "0 m", "lap_type": "unknown", "part": "unclassified", "effort": null }, { "index": 7, "source_lap": "7", "distance_m": 170.0, "duration_s": 32.0, "displayed_pace": "3:03 /km", "net_elevation_m": 1.0, "displayed_gap": null, "context_column": "Elev", "context_value": "1 m", "lap_type": "unknown", "part": "unclassified", "effort": null }, { "index": 8, "source_lap": "8", "distance_m": 120.0, "duration_s": 52.0, "displayed_pace": "6:57 /km", "net_elevation_m": -1.0, "displayed_gap": null, "context_column": "Elev", "context_value": "-1 m", "lap_type": "unknown", "part": "unclassified", "effort": null }, { "index": 9, "source_lap": "9", "distance_m": 1520.0, "duration_s": 284.0, "displayed_pace": "3:07 /km", "net_elevation_m": 3.0, "displayed_gap": null, "context_column": "Elev", "context_value": "3 m", "lap_type": "unknown", "part": "unclassified", "effort": null }, { "index": 10, "source_lap": "10", "distance_m": 50.0, "duration_s": 85.0, "displayed_pace": "26:18 /km", "net_elevation_m": 0.0, "displayed_gap": null, "context_column": "Elev", "context_value": "0 m", "lap_type": "unknown", "part": "unclassified", "effort": null }, { "index": 11, "source_lap": "11", "distance_m": 1510.0, "duration_s": 280.0, "displayed_pace": "3:05 /km", "net_elevation_m": -1.0, "displayed_gap": null, "context_column": 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entries owned by other group members rejected.", "correspondence_fact": "Exact owner/source name correspondence; same official race date; near source distance; clock difference retained explicitly. These are identity checks, not forecast-error comparisons." } ], "capture_complete": true, "recent28_km": 323.78, "previous56_km": 502.46, "logged_weekly_km28": 80.9, "run_days28": 23, "runs28": 29, "longest28_km": 20.58, "latest_visible_run": "2026-10-21", "weeks": [ { "start": "2026-09-14", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-21", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 90.65, "runs": 6, "run_days": 6, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20193605902", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20193610587", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20201385135", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20222021652", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20233681378", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20259275155" ] }, { "start": "2026-09-21", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-28", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 73.24, "runs": 8, "run_days": 6, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20271180549", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20289661747", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20297936223", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20331278659", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20342843924", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20356525498", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20356961408", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20357607413" ] }, { "start": "2026-09-28", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-05", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 86.24, "runs": 6, "run_days": 6, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20372577879", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20386083757", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20397103203", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20426097052", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20441546589", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20452015554" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-05", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-12", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 63.05, "runs": 8, "run_days": 5, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20462790665", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20463210487", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20482606707", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20508161207", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20518778493", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20518783125", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20519360788", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20535254293" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-12", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-19", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 98.24, "runs": 7, "run_days": 6, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20562192778", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20575337599", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20615894937", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20615898959", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20628049630", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20638970483", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20640924816" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-19", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "partial": true, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 41.79, "runs": 3, "run_days": 3, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20650283282", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20669606294", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20676297451" ] } ], "observation_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "sessions": [], "limitation": "Visible uploaded running only; missing uploads, private activities and unrecorded training remain unknown. Empty calendar bins do not establish rest or injury.", "window_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "capture_fresh": true, "calendar_capture_complete": true, "collection_status": "fresh" }, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: 2026 Bill Dellinger Invitational on 2026-10-09 (8 km, 25:55.3). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Visible running averages 80.9 km/week in the current 28-day window. The complete captured window permits a small logged-volume trend adjustment." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "regina:12425", "name": "Brett MacLean", "place": 8, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.99, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6831", "name": "Luc Fillion", "place": 9, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.01, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8048", "name": "Mitchell Erickson", "place": 11, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.06, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-09", "race": "2026 Bill Dellinger Invitational", "gap_s": -1.1, "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28610/2026_Bill_Dellinger_Invitational", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "gap_s": 4.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8071", "name": "Joe Accardo", "place": 12, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.79, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-09", "race": "2026 Bill Dellinger Invitational", "gap_s": 16.4, "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28610/2026_Bill_Dellinger_Invitational", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "gap_s": -44.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.371129030862361, "race_score": 7.37315859421115, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 7, "uninformative_place_high": 40, "training_log_adjustment": -0.002029563348788243, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8052", "key": "mitchell|klassen", "name": "Mitchell Klassen", "team_id": "victoria", "team": "University of Victoria", "team_short": "Victoria", "profile_url": "https://govikesgo.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=8052", "roster_url": "https://govikesgo.com/sports/mens-cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 16, "team_selection_order": 16, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 53, "place_low": 21, "place_high": 86, "win_probability": 0.00025, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/spiritrun/8K - Open", "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K - Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1681.0, "name_raw": "KLASSEN, Mitchell", "team": "UVIC", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 26 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/spiritrun/8K - Open", "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K - Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1681.0, "name_raw": "KLASSEN, Mitchell", "team": "UVIC", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 26 }, { "event_id": "arc:2024/bcxcchamp/U20 Men", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "BC Athletics Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20 Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1643.12, "name_raw": "Klassen, Mitchell", "team": "Vancouver Thunderbirds", "source_url": null, "venue": "Vernon, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 }, { "event_id": "slt:2024/spiritrun/8K-Open", "date": "2024-09-22", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K-Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1668.0, "name_raw": "KLASSEN, Mitchell", "team": "UVIC", "source_url": null, "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 761 } ], "personal_bests": [ { "event_id": "anet:2026/meet-626078/Mens Seeded 1 Mile", "date": "2026-01-30", "race": "2026 UW Invite / Mile City", "event": "Mens Seeded 1 Mile", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.609, "time_s": 268.18, "name_raw": "Mitchell Klassen", "team": "Victoria (B.C.)", "source_url": "https://www.athletic.net/TrackAndField/meet/626078/results/m/5/1mile", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 266 } ], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: Vancouver Spirit Run on 2026-09-27 (8 km, 28:01.0). 1 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "manitoba:6833", "name": "Dorian Johnson", "place": 51, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.06, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6607", "name": "Justin Schuler", "place": 52, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.02, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13370", "name": "Miles Graham", "place": 54, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.11, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13361", "name": "Calvin Brain", "place": 55, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.21, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. 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Nominal andGPS distances differ; do not turn this into an exact8km estimate.", "blocks": [ { "rep_distances_m": [ 1460.0, 150.0, 160.0, 150.0, 3190.0, 1510.0, 1510.0, 1510.0, 1020.0, 1020.0, 980.0 ], "rep_times_s": [ 301.0, 31.0, 31.0, 31.0, 595.0, 281.0, 270.0, 274.0, 182.0, 188.0, 178.0 ], "recovery_s": [ 65.0, 45.0, 46.0, 36.0, 277.0, 96.0, 89.0, 182.0, 90.0, 88.0 ], "effort": "mixed; initial5min T, remaining unspecified", "work_lap_indices": [ 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 19, 21 ], "recovery_lap_indices": [ 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18, 20 ] } ], "evidence": { "source_path": "data/canwest-site/training-research/laps/20615267765.json", "source_sha256": "3964e607b801b36d84c9cebe3c9e18192aee505de8d74287bc4dec91cd216cda", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:35:15.721Z" } }, { "date": "2026-10-06", "name": "More blue collar by the day", "description": "4 x 1050m T, 4 x 90” @ XC effort\n\nStill got a long road ahead to finally overcome this health anxiety to be honest.", "km": 15.22, "url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20482178350", "terrain": null, "effort": null, "recovery_s": null, "blocks": [], "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0115-strava-105226901-202610-c20c928c962e40fb.txt", "source_sha256": "c20c928c962e40fbee4fd9dad1e5333284c8cd602ede147437575948f947daa1" }, { "date": "2026-10-04", "name": "SonReal", "description": "Uphill/downhill reps and grass strides.\nRunning streak coming to an end after 48 days.", "km": 20.81, "url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20452098536", "terrain": null, "effort": null, "recovery_s": null, "blocks": [], "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0115-strava-105226901-202610-c20c928c962e40fb.txt", "source_sha256": "c20c928c962e40fbee4fd9dad1e5333284c8cd602ede147437575948f947daa1" }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "name": "That’s not Danny Diaz!", "description": "3x8’, Lambrick gravel resurfacing feeling smooth.\nEntire posterior chain sore from Wednesday weights though…", "km": 13.17, "url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20421622360", "terrain": null, "effort": null, "recovery_s": null, "blocks": [], "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0115-strava-105226901-202610-c20c928c962e40fb.txt", "source_sha256": "c20c928c962e40fbee4fd9dad1e5333284c8cd602ede147437575948f947daa1" }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "name": "Temporomandibular joint", "description": "PM - 7x3’\nShoutouts Tate O’Brien for convincing me to keep the USports playoff moustache dream alive.", "km": 15.23, "url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20426111865", "terrain": null, "effort": null, "recovery_s": null, "blocks": [], "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0115-strava-105226901-202610-c20c928c962e40fb.txt", "source_sha256": "c20c928c962e40fbee4fd9dad1e5333284c8cd602ede147437575948f947daa1" }, { "date": "2026-09-28", "name": "I’m Gonna Be (500 Miles)", "description": "Chip trail recovery with Mitche", "km": 11.16, "url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20367583491", "terrain": null, "effort": null, "recovery_s": null, "blocks": [], "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0114-strava-105226901-202609-23d91c4cb9bb6bcb.txt", "source_sha256": "23d91c4cb9bb6bcb5db4cb4d521ef4b7a48d1b8260bcb0ce5343e083a7f6eeda" }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "name": "Camera Shy", "description": "Tempo feeling like 🗑️\n8k pace reps feeling great", "km": 15.26, "url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20330086522", "terrain": null, "effort": null, "recovery_s": null, "blocks": [], "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0114-strava-105226901-202609-23d91c4cb9bb6bcb.txt", "source_sha256": "23d91c4cb9bb6bcb5db4cb4d521ef4b7a48d1b8260bcb0ce5343e083a7f6eeda" } ], "limitation": "Visible uploaded running only; missing uploads, private activities and unrecorded training remain unknown. Empty calendar bins do not establish rest or injury.", "window_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "capture_fresh": true, "calendar_capture_complete": false, "collection_status": "fresh" }, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: 2026 Bill Dellinger Invitational on 2026-10-09 (8 km, 24:30.8). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Visible running averages 135.0 km/week in the current 28-day window. Calendar coverage or source freshness is incomplete, so no volume trend is applied." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "ubc:13366", "name": "Maximilien Filion", "place": 1, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.01, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8045", "name": "Tyler Browne", "place": 3, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.95, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-09", "race": "2026 Bill Dellinger Invitational", "gap_s": -4.9, "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28610/2026_Bill_Dellinger_Invitational", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "gap_s": -27.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8074", "name": "Daniel Damian", "place": 4, "estimated_gap_percent": -1.65, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-09", "race": "2026 Bill Dellinger Invitational", "gap_s": -31.0, "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28610/2026_Bill_Dellinger_Invitational", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.323261257095915, "race_score": 7.323261257095915, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 2, "uninformative_place_high": 12, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8055", "key": "mackenzie|lascelle", "name": "Mackenzie Lascelle", "team_id": "victoria", "team": "University of Victoria", "team_short": "Victoria", "profile_url": "https://govikesgo.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=8055", "roster_url": "https://govikesgo.com/sports/mens-cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "University biography directly links World Athletics profile and names Spirit Run performances matching primary timing rows.", "identity_alternatives": "Royal Victoria 5k exact-name Victoria row is inferred but geographically strong.", "identity_source_url": "https://worldathletics.org/athletes/canada/mackenzie-lascelle-15097011", "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 13, "team_selection_order": 13, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 32, "place_low": 12, "place_high": 77, "win_probability": 0.001, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/spiritrun/8K - Open", "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K - Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1648.0, "name_raw": "LASCELLE, Mackenzie", "team": "VETC", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 26 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/victoriamarathon/5K", "date": "2026-10-11", "race": "Royal Victoria Marathon", "event": "5K", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 5.0, "time_s": 969.0, "name_raw": "LASCELLE, Mackenzie", "team": "", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/victoriamarathon/event/5K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 12 }, { "event_id": "slt:2026/spiritrun/8K - Open", "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K - Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1648.0, "name_raw": "LASCELLE, Mackenzie", "team": "VETC", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 26 }, { "event_id": "slt:2025/spiritrun/8K-Open", "date": "2025-09-28", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K-Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1483.0, "name_raw": "LASCELLE, Mackenzie", "team": "UVIC", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/spiritrun/event/8K-Open", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 390 }, { "event_id": "slt:2024/spiritrun/8K-Open", "date": "2024-09-22", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K-Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1635.0, "name_raw": "LASCELLE, Mackenzie", "team": "UVIC", "source_url": null, "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 761 } ], "personal_bests": [ { "event_id": null, "date": "2024-02-03", "race": "World Athletics published PB", "event": "Mile", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.609344, "time_s": 258.5, "name_raw": null, "team": null, "source_url": "https://worldathletics.org/athletes/canada/mackenzie-lascelle-15097011", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 993 }, { "event_id": "slt:2026/victoriamarathon/5K", "date": "2026-10-11", "race": "Royal Victoria Marathon", "event": "5K", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 5.0, "time_s": 969.0, "name_raw": "LASCELLE, Mackenzie", "team": "", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/victoriamarathon/event/5K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 12 } ], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: Vancouver Spirit Run on 2026-09-27 (8 km, 27:28.0). 1 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "regina:12421", "name": "Adonias Downes", "place": 30, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.29, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6830", "name": "Luxton Dueck", "place": 31, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.2, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6609", "name": "Colin Stock", "place": 33, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.02, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "ubc-okanagan:5110", "name": "Ethan Nozick", "place": 34, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.06, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.4031090634624075, "race_score": 7.4031090634624075, "sigma": 0.037000000000000005, "uninformative_place_low": 12, "uninformative_place_high": 77, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8056", "key": "elliot|lester", "name": "Elliot Lester", "team_id": "victoria", "team": "University of Victoria", "team_short": "Victoria", "profile_url": "https://govikesgo.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=8056", "roster_url": "https://govikesgo.com/sports/mens-cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "University biography directly links World Athletics profile and names Spirit Run54th, matching primary timing row54th25:55.", "identity_alternatives": "No stronger alternative profile found.", "identity_source_url": "https://worldathletics.org/athletes/canada/elliot-lester-15098600", "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": null, "team_selection_order": 19, "forecast_status": "unknown", "unknown_reason": "no_current_xc", "place": null, "place_low": null, "place_high": null, "win_probability": null, "basis": { "kind": "historical_pb", "mark": { "event_id": "anet:2026/meet-626078/Mens Seeded 1 Mile", "date": "2026-01-30", "race": "2026 UW Invite / Mile City", "event": "Mens Seeded 1 Mile", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.609, "time_s": 267.13, "name_raw": "Elliot Lester", "team": "Victoria (B.C.)", "source_url": "https://www.athletic.net/TrackAndField/meet/626078/results/m/5/1mile", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 266 } }, "uncertainty": "Current fitness unknown. Shown after supported estimates without a finishing-position claim.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2025/spiritrun/8K-Open", "date": "2025-09-28", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K-Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1555.0, "name_raw": "LESTER, Elliot", "team": "UVIC", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/spiritrun/event/8K-Open", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 390 } ], "personal_bests": [ { "event_id": null, "date": "2024-06-13", "race": "World Athletics published PB", "event": "1500 Metres", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.5, "time_s": 243.47, "name_raw": null, "team": null, "source_url": "https://worldathletics.org/athletes/canada/elliot-lester-15098600", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 862 }, { "event_id": "anet:2026/meet-626078/Mens Seeded 1 Mile", "date": "2026-01-30", "race": "2026 UW Invite / Mile City", "event": "Mens Seeded 1 Mile", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.609, "time_s": 267.13, "name_raw": "Elliot Lester", "team": "Victoria (B.C.)", "source_url": "https://www.athletic.net/TrackAndField/meet/626078/results/m/5/1mile", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 266 } ], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": { "profile_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/186667407", "strava_id": "186667407", "identity_status": "inferred_strongest_available_match", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": { "status": "inferred_strongest_available_match", "confidence": "high", "confidence_is": "Qualitative evidence assessment; not a calibrated probability.", "strava_id": "186667407", "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/186667407", "basis": { "display_name": "Elliot Lester", "location": " Victoria, British Columbia, Canada", "clubs": [ { "owner_id": "186667407", "scope": "profile-clubs", "name": "UVic Cycling Club", "url": "https://www.strava.com/clubs/1223520" } ], "bio": { "owner_id": "186667407", "scope": "profile-bio", "text": "UVic Track and Field" } }, "alternatives": [], "selection_rule": "Explicit corresponding XC/track club or bio, then matching locale, then visible running history; no selection by forecast error." }, "capture_complete": false, "recent28_km": 205.02, "previous56_km": 211.57, "logged_weekly_km28": 51.3, "run_days28": 21, "runs28": 21, "longest28_km": 15.07, "latest_visible_run": "2026-10-21", "weeks": [ { "start": "2026-09-14", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-21", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 57.65, "runs": 5, "run_days": 5, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20178697332", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20193407977", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20201259831", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20233937346", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20259304055" ] }, { "start": "2026-09-21", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-28", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 45.71, "runs": 6, "run_days": 5, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20270470363", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20275343575", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20289885788", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20298102203", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20343413455", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20356560126" ] }, { "start": "2026-09-28", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-05", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 57.64, "runs": 5, "run_days": 5, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20386111801", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20400336366", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20426166272", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20441069455", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20453873614" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-05", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-12", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 44.2, "runs": 5, "run_days": 5, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20463385779", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20482670462", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20513446504", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20520801759", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20534688114" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-12", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-19", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 68.77, "runs": 7, "run_days": 7, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20562417437", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20576340290", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20588002789", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20603030853", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20614699952", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20628036320", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20638685792" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-19", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "partial": true, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 20.97, "runs": 2, "run_days": 2, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20668522313", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20683160053" ] } ], "observation_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "sessions": [ { "date": "2026-10-18", "name": "Recruit visit + free lunch??", "description": "", "km": 12.94, "url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20638685792", "terrain": null, "effort": null, "recovery_s": null, "blocks": [], "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0121-strava-186667407-202610-013bf91b41b2b099.txt", "source_sha256": "013bf91b41b2b0990d65bd7dfe8de32560cccab38c814ecc786bd44cb45bda39" }, { "date": "2026-10-13", "name": "Solo workout post exam", "description": "Never gone from feeling that shit to that good that fast, wd w elly", "km": 11.05, "url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20576340290", "terrain": null, "effort": null, "recovery_s": null, "blocks": [], "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0121-strava-186667407-202610-013bf91b41b2b099.txt", "source_sha256": "013bf91b41b2b0990d65bd7dfe8de32560cccab38c814ecc786bd44cb45bda39" }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "name": "Afternoon Run", "description": "6xk prep for rvm", "km": 14.75, "url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20426166272", "terrain": null, "effort": null, "recovery_s": null, "blocks": [], "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0121-strava-186667407-202610-013bf91b41b2b099.txt", "source_sha256": "013bf91b41b2b0990d65bd7dfe8de32560cccab38c814ecc786bd44cb45bda39" } ], "limitation": "Visible uploaded running only; missing uploads, private activities and unrecorded training remain unknown. Empty calendar bins do not establish rest or injury.", "window_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "capture_fresh": true, "calendar_capture_complete": false, "collection_status": "fresh" }, "justification": [ "Unknown current form: no qualifying current XC result.", "Historical background: 2026 UW Invite / Mile City on 2026-01-30 (1.609 km, 4:27.1). 0 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Older performances are background ability, not evidence of current fitness. A recent XC race can change this status.", "Visible running averages 51.3 km/week in the current 28-day window. Calendar coverage or source freshness is incomplete, so no volume trend is applied." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "victoria:8060", "name": "Dylan Naresh", "place": 59, "estimated_gap_percent": null, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8073", "name": "Cai Collingwood", "place": 56, "estimated_gap_percent": null, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.443046495992805, "race_score": 7.443046495992805, "sigma": 0.0883607305936073, "uninformative_place_low": 6, "uninformative_place_high": 99, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8060", "key": "dylan|naresh", "name": "Dylan Naresh", "team_id": "victoria", "team": "University of Victoria", "team_short": "Victoria", "profile_url": "https://govikesgo.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=8060", "roster_url": "https://govikesgo.com/sports/mens-cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 18, "team_selection_order": 18, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 59, "place_low": 34, "place_high": 82, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/bcxcchamp/U20", "date": "2026-10-17", "race": "BC Athletics Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1658.0, "name_raw": "NARESH, Dylan", "team": "VICTORIA ENDURANCE TRACK CLUB", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/U20", "venue": "Arbutus Meadows Farm, Nanoose Bay, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 6 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/bcxcchamp/U20", "date": "2026-10-17", "race": "BC Athletics Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1658.0, "name_raw": "NARESH, Dylan", "team": "VICTORIA ENDURANCE TRACK CLUB", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/U20", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 6 }, { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1611.0, "name_raw": "NARESH, Dylan", "team": "VICTORIA VIKES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "slt:2026/spiritrun/8K - Open", "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K - Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1714.0, "name_raw": "NARESH, Dylan", "team": "UVIC", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 26 }, { "event_id": "slt:2025/spiritrun/8K-Open", "date": "2025-09-28", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K-Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1521.0, "name_raw": "NARESH, Dylan", "team": "UVIC", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/spiritrun/event/8K-Open", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 390 } ], "personal_bests": [ { "event_id": "anet:2026/meet-626078/Mens Seeded 1 Mile", "date": "2026-01-30", "race": "2026 UW Invite / Mile City", "event": "Mens Seeded 1 Mile", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.609, "time_s": 262.21, "name_raw": "Dylan Naresh", "team": "Victoria (B.C.)", "source_url": "https://www.athletic.net/TrackAndField/meet/626078/results/m/5/1mile", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 266 } ], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: BC Athletics Cross Country Championships on 2026-10-17 (8 km, 27:38.0). 3 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "ubc:13362", "name": "Steven Brittain", "place": 57, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.12, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -49.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "gap_s": -22.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "calgary:17464", "name": "Quinn Schulz", "place": 58, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.07, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "regina:12426", "name": "Henry Sharp", "place": 60, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.26, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -23.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13379", "name": "Arata Nakanishi", "place": 61, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.27, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-17", "race": "BC Athletics Cross Country Championships", "gap_s": 7.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/U20", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -34.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "gap_s": 18.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.427347140809293, "race_score": 7.427347140809293, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 34, "uninformative_place_high": 82, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8076", "key": "brendan|obrien", "name": "Brendan O'Brien", "team_id": "victoria", "team": "University of Victoria", "team_short": "Victoria", "profile_url": "https://govikesgo.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=8076", "roster_url": "https://govikesgo.com/sports/mens-cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 11, "team_selection_order": 11, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 22, "place_low": 13, "place_high": 58, "win_probability": 5e-05, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1589.0, "name_raw": "O'BRIEN, Brendan", "team": "", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1589.0, "name_raw": "O'BRIEN, Brendan", "team": "", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "slt:2026/spiritrun/8K - Open", "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K - Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1620.0, "name_raw": "O'BRIEN, Brendan", "team": "UVIC", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 26 }, { "event_id": "tfrrs:2025/naia/Men 8k", "date": "2025-11-21", "race": "NAIA Cross Country Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1602.3, "name_raw": "Brendan O'Brien", "team": "Trinity Western", "source_url": null, "venue": "Apalachee Regional Park, Tallahassee, FL", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 336 }, { "event_id": "tfrrs:2025/25687/Men 8k Run CC", "date": "2025-09-27", "race": "WWU Bill Roe Classic 2025", "event": "Men 8k Run CC", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1619.4, "name_raw": "Brendan O'Brien", "team": "Trinity Western", "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/25687/WWU_Bill_Roe_Classic_2025", "venue": "Hovander Homestead Park", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 391 }, { "event_id": "slt:2024/usports/Men", "date": "2024-11-09", "race": "U SPORTS Cross-Country Championships", "event": "Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1575.0, "name_raw": "O'BRIEN, Brendan", "team": "TRINITY WESTERN SPARTANS", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2024/usports/event/Men", "venue": "Kelowna, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 713 }, { "event_id": "uofa:2024/canwestxc/8K - Men", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2024", "event": "8K - Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1706.8, "name_raw": "Brendan Obrien", "team": "Trinity Western Spartans", "source_url": null, "venue": "Stoney Creek Centre, Camrose, AB", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 }, { "event_id": "tfrrs:2024/24073/Men 8k Run CC", "date": "2024-09-28", "race": "WWU Bill Roe Classic 2024", "event": "Men 8k Run CC", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1611.4, "name_raw": "Brendan O'Brien", "team": "Trinity Western", "source_url": "https://tfrrs.org/results/xc/24073/WWU_Bill_Roe_Classic_2024", "venue": "Hovander Homestead Park", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 755 }, { "event_id": "slt:2023/oakbayhalf/10K", "date": "2023-05-28", "race": "Oak Bay Half", "event": "10K", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 10.0, "time_s": 3230.0, "name_raw": "OBRIEN, Brendan", "team": "Victoria, BC", "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 1244 } ], "personal_bests": [ { "event_id": "anet:2026/meet-653452/Mens Collegiate 1500 Meters", "date": "2026-04-11", "race": "Battle of Sparta", "event": "Mens Collegiate 1500 Meters", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.5, "time_s": 248.85, "name_raw": "Brendan O'Brien", "team": "Trinity Western (B.C.)", "source_url": "https://www.athletic.net/TrackAndField/meet/653452/results/m/1/1500m", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 195 } ], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 26:29.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "manitoba:6834", "name": "Carson Kroeker", "place": 20, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.34, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 6.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6835", "name": "Jonah Leppelmann", "place": 21, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.28, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 3.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8077", "name": "Hayden Woodrow", "place": 23, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.27, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": -12.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "gap_s": 6.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13385", "name": "Kouken Narbett", "place": 24, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.32, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 16.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "gap_s": -34.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.391963460337608, "race_score": 7.391963460337608, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 13, "uninformative_place_high": 58, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8062", "key": "tate|o'brien", "name": "Tate O'Brien", "team_id": "victoria", "team": "University of Victoria", "team_short": "Victoria", "profile_url": "https://govikesgo.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=8062", "roster_url": "https://govikesgo.com/sports/mens-cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "University biography directly links World Athletics profile with same 600m1:17.63 in2025; current World Athletics800PB1:48.94.", "identity_alternatives": "Fast800PB does not establish8km endurance or current-fall form.", "identity_source_url": "https://worldathletics.org/athletes/canada/tate-obrien-15104821", "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": null, "team_selection_order": 20, "forecast_status": "unknown", "unknown_reason": "no_current_xc", "place": null, "place_low": null, "place_high": null, "win_probability": null, "basis": { "kind": "field_prior", "mark": null }, "uncertainty": "Current fitness unknown. Shown after supported estimates without a finishing-position claim.", "race_results": [], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": { "profile_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/57134970", "strava_id": "57134970", "identity_status": "inferred_strongest_available_match", "identity_confidence": "medium-low", "identity_basis": { "status": "inferred_strongest_available_match", "confidence": "medium-low", "confidence_is": "Qualitative evidence assessment; not a calibrated probability.", "strava_id": "57134970", "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/57134970", "basis": { "display_name": "Tate O'Brien", "location": " British Columbia, Canada", "clubs": [], "bio": null }, "alternatives": [ { "strava_id": "1314706235", "location": " Victoria, British Columbia, Canada", "clubs": [], "visible_activities": 0 } ], "selection_rule": "Explicit corresponding XC/track club or bio, then matching locale, then visible running history; no selection by forecast error." }, "capture_complete": false, "recent28_km": null, "previous56_km": null, "logged_weekly_km28": null, "run_days28": null, "runs28": null, "longest28_km": null, "latest_visible_run": null, "weeks": [ { "start": "2026-09-14", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-21", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-09-21", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-28", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-09-28", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-05", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-05", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-12", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-12", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-19", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-19", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "partial": true, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] } ], "observation_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "sessions": [], "limitation": "Visible uploaded running only; missing uploads, private activities and unrecorded training remain unknown. Empty calendar bins do not establish rest or injury.", "window_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "capture_fresh": true, "calendar_capture_complete": false, "collection_status": "fresh" }, "justification": [ "Unknown current form: no qualifying current XC result.", "No usable timed mark was recovered. Current fitness remains unknown.", "Older performances are background ability, not evidence of current fitness. A recent XC race can change this status.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "victoria:8060", "name": "Dylan Naresh", "place": 59, "estimated_gap_percent": null, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8073", "name": "Cai Collingwood", "place": 56, "estimated_gap_percent": null, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.489220551279501, "race_score": 7.489220551279501, "sigma": 0.16, "uninformative_place_low": 2, "uninformative_place_high": 101, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8067", "key": "jack|screen", "name": "Jack Screen", "team_id": "victoria", "team": "University of Victoria", "team_short": "Victoria", "profile_url": "https://govikesgo.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=8067", "roster_url": "https://govikesgo.com/sports/mens-cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 5, "team_selection_order": 5, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 7, "place_low": 5, "place_high": 31, "win_probability": 0.00535, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "tfrrs:2026/28610/Men 8000", "date": "2026-10-09", "race": "2026 Bill Dellinger Invitational", "event": "Men 8000", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1529.8, "name_raw": "Jack Screen", "team": "U. of Victoria", "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28610/2026_Bill_Dellinger_Invitational", "venue": "Pine Ridge Golf Course, Springfield, OR", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact name/alias and explicit university team", "age_days": 14 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "tfrrs:2026/28610/Men 8000", "date": "2026-10-09", "race": "2026 Bill Dellinger Invitational", "event": "Men 8000", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1529.8, "name_raw": "Jack Screen", "team": "U. of Victoria", "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28610/2026_Bill_Dellinger_Invitational", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact name/alias and explicit university team", "age_days": 14 }, { "event_id": "slt:2026/spiritrun/8K - Open", "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K - Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1585.0, "name_raw": "SCREEN, Jack", "team": "UVIC", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 26 }, { "event_id": "racestats:2026/tc10k/TC10K", "date": "2026-04-26", "race": "TC10K", "event": "TC10K", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 10.0, "time_s": 1915.0, "name_raw": "Jack Screen", "team": null, "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 180 }, { "event_id": "alive:2025/usports/8 km - Masculin", "date": "2025-11-08", "race": "U SPORTS Cross Country Championships 2025", "event": "8 km - Masculin", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1654.0, "name_raw": "Jack Screen", "team": "Victoria Vikes", "source_url": null, "venue": "Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 349 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1615.8, "name_raw": "Jack Screen", "team": "Victoria Vikes", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 }, { "event_id": "slt:2025/spiritrun/8K-Open", "date": "2025-09-28", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K-Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1440.0, "name_raw": "SCREEN, Jack", "team": "UVIC", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/spiritrun/event/8K-Open", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 390 }, { "event_id": "racestats:2025/tc10k/TC10K", "date": "2025-04-27", "race": "TC10K", "event": "TC10K", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 10.0, "time_s": 2026.0, "name_raw": "Jack Screen", "team": null, "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 544 }, { "event_id": "arc:2024/bcxcchamp/Senior Men", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "BC Athletics Cross Country Championships", "event": "Senior Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1676.71, "name_raw": "Screen, Jack", "team": "Victoria Vikes", "source_url": null, "venue": "Vernon, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 }, { "event_id": "slt:2024/spiritrun/8K-Open", "date": "2024-09-22", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K-Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1648.0, "name_raw": "SCREEN, Jack", "team": "VETC", "source_url": null, "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 761 }, { "event_id": "arc:2023/bcxcchamp/Senior Men", "date": "2023-10-14", "race": "BC Athletics Cross Country Championships", "event": "Senior Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1560.1, "name_raw": "Screen, Jack", "team": "Victoria Endurance Track Club", "source_url": null, "venue": "Surrey, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 1105 }, { "event_id": "racestats:2023/tc10k/TC10K", "date": "2023-04-30", "race": "TC10K", "event": "TC10K", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 10.0, "time_s": 2031.0, "name_raw": "Jack Screen", "team": null, "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 1272 } ], "personal_bests": [ { "event_id": "anet:2026/meet-626078/Mens Seeded 1 Mile", "date": "2026-01-30", "race": "2026 UW Invite / Mile City", "event": "Mens Seeded 1 Mile", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.609, "time_s": 262.8, "name_raw": "Jack Screen", "team": "Victoria (B.C.)", "source_url": "https://www.athletic.net/TrackAndField/meet/626078/results/m/5/1mile", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 266 } ], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": { "profile_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/40984427", "strava_id": "40984427", "identity_status": "verified_existing_source_review", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": [ { "kind": "owner_bound_race_correspondence", "source_path": "data/usports/2026-10-23/training/national/raw/40984427/202610.txt", "source_sha256": "008ab0463cbccd6cca1db870d7715baf1ee827e631e2872377e9589f4a73ff75", "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/40984427/interval?interval=202610&interval_type=month&chart_type=miles&year_offset=0", "activity_id": "20519246139", "activity_url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20519246139", "owner_strava_id": "40984427", "owner_name": "Jack Screen", "owner_pointer": "appContext.preFetchedEntries[15].rowData.activities[0].athlete_id_str", "activity_title": "Dellinger", "activity_date": "2026-10-09", "watch_distance_km": 8.15, "watch_moving_s": 1530, "activity_source_time_label": "Time", "watch_precision": "rounded interval display; time label preserved", "official_result": { "source_path": "data/research/fall2026/raw/tfrrs_28610.html", "source_sha256": "49c915fc7fd2c671333d0a78dc6dc1144586e773fd96874f1b3b92bbe3e438ed", "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28610/2026_Bill_Dellinger_Invitational", "source_title": "TFRRS | 2026 Bill Dellinger Invitational - Meet Results", "source_heading": "Men 8000 Individual Results (8k) Top↑", "source_header": [ "PL", "NAME", "YEAR", "TEAM", "Avg. Mile", "TIME", "SCORE" ], "source_cells": [ "60", "Jack Screen", "SR-4", "U. of Victoria", "5:07.7", "25:29.8", "51" ], "source_row_ordinal": 194, "name_raw": "Jack Screen", "team_raw": "U. of Victoria", "category": "M", "year_raw": "SR-4", "place": 60, "clock_raw": "25:29.8", "time_s": 1529.8, "time_basis": "TIME column; gun/chip unspecified", "distance_km": 8.0, "distance_evidence": "Men 8000 Individual Results (8k) Top↑", "date": "2026-10-09", "event_id": "tfrrs:2026/28610/Men 8000" }, "clock_difference_s": 0.20000000000004547, "distance_relative_difference": 0.018750000000000044, "named_race": true, "official_school_corroboration": { "source_path": "data/usports/2026-10-23/forecast/identity-review/victoria/dellinger-2026.html", "source_sha256": "3018c95ee7f82f069c760e16ae54db22fe32489a01c660c2cefa9cca6e106c46", "source_url": "https://govikesgo.com/news/2026/10/9/xc-track-eybergen-headlines-vikes-against-division-i-competition.aspx", "source_date": "2026-10-09", "fact": "Official University of Victoria recap places Jack Screen in its men's8km scoring group at60th,25:29.8." }, "roster_corroboration": { "source_path": "data/usports/2026-10-23/canwest/victoria.html", "source_sha256": "7f9327b6ad154afba68bef1a272e2fe1cdc3526a55b00db2bee9a61f8899bbe7", "source_url": "https://govikesgo.com/sports/mens-cross-country/roster", "roster_id": "victoria:8067", "profile_id": "8067", "profile_url": "https://govikesgo.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=8067", "season": "2026-27", "name": "Jack Screen", "source_person": { "@type": "Person", "@context": "http://schema.org", "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://govikesgo.com/images/2026/10/14/Jack_Screen_Headshot_2026.jpg", "width": 80, "height": 102 }, "name": "Jack Screen", "gender": "M", "url": "https://govikesgo.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=8067" }, "combined_page_gender_not_used": true, "gender_source": { "source_url": "https://govikesgo.com/news/2026/9/27/xc-track-cross-country-dominates-at-vancouver-spirit-run.aspx", "source_path": "data/usports/2026-10-23/forecast/identity-review/victoria/spirit-2026.txt", "source_sha256": "ad809c69329f1d8f1f14331daec3de9abae131ed8567d962c7f6f963876889c4", "section": "Men's race highlights.", "event_date": "2026-09-27", "method": "Explicit current-fall official category section or UVIC timing row; not name or combined-page metadata." } }, "ownership_fact": "Exact rowData.activities owner ID equals40984427 and owner name equals Jack Screen; other group owners were excluded.", "correspondence_fact": "Same official race calendar date, literal owner/source/roster name, named race, watch distance within15%, watch displayed time within10s. Identity corroboration only; watch time is not the official finish clock." } ], "capture_complete": true, "recent28_km": 208.76, "previous56_km": 342.27, "logged_weekly_km28": 52.2, "run_days28": 17, "runs28": 21, "longest28_km": 18.61, "latest_visible_run": "2026-10-21", "weeks": [ { "start": "2026-09-14", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-21", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 54.53, "runs": 4, "run_days": 4, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20193559359", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20218495618", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20233691750", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20259201214" ] }, { "start": "2026-09-21", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-28", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 52.4, "runs": 7, "run_days": 5, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20274660998", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20289511981", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20329846340", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20344597100", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20356537709", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20357244933", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20357245173" ] }, { "start": "2026-09-28", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-05", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 58.35, "runs": 5, "run_days": 5, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20386120085", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20411969768", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20426202993", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20440931106", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20452011899" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-05", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-12", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 33.62, "runs": 5, "run_days": 3, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20482228031", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20508294983", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20519246139", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20519246179", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20519382779" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-12", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-19", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 59.82, "runs": 4, "run_days": 4, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20561546611", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20575420839", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20614968342", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20625512289" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-19", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "partial": true, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 24.61, "runs": 2, "run_days": 2, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20668669267", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20681126267" ] } ], "observation_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "sessions": [], "limitation": "Visible uploaded running only; missing uploads, private activities and unrecorded training remain unknown. Empty calendar bins do not establish rest or injury.", "window_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "capture_fresh": true, "calendar_capture_complete": true, "collection_status": "fresh" }, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: 2026 Bill Dellinger Invitational on 2026-10-09 (8 km, 25:29.8). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Visible running averages 52.2 km/week in the current 28-day window. The complete captured window permits a small logged-volume trend adjustment." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "regina:12428", "name": "Ian Teichler", "place": 5, "estimated_gap_percent": 1.29, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8069", "name": "Jacob Webster", "place": 6, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.37, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-09", "race": "2026 Bill Dellinger Invitational", "gap_s": 11.2, "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28610/2026_Bill_Dellinger_Invitational", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "gap_s": 4.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "regina:12425", "name": "Brett MacLean", "place": 8, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.21, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "manitoba:6831", "name": "Luc Fillion", "place": 9, "estimated_gap_percent": -1.17, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.359245319571932, "race_score": 7.3608351799564025, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 5, "uninformative_place_high": 31, "training_log_adjustment": -0.0015898603844701608, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8098", "key": "james|sikich", "name": "James Sikich", "team_id": "victoria", "team": "University of Victoria", "team_short": "Victoria", "profile_url": "https://govikesgo.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=8098", "roster_url": "https://govikesgo.com/sports/mens-cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 10, "team_selection_order": 10, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 17, "place_low": 11, "place_high": 52, "win_probability": 0.00055, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1594.0, "name_raw": "SIKICH, James", "team": "VICTORIA VIKES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1594.0, "name_raw": "SIKICH, James", "team": "VICTORIA VIKES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "slt:2026/spiritrun/8K - Open", "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K - Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1588.0, "name_raw": "SIKICH, James", "team": "UVIC", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 26 }, { "event_id": "slt:2025/spiritrun/8K-Open", "date": "2025-09-28", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K-Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1438.0, "name_raw": "SIKICH, James", "team": "UVIC", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/spiritrun/event/8K-Open", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 390 }, { "event_id": "ss:2024/vancouver-sun-run/10 km", "date": "2024-04-21", "race": "Vancouver Sun Run", "event": "10 km", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 10.0, "time_s": 1961.0, "name_raw": "James Sikich", "team": "North Vancouver, BC", "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 915 }, { "event_id": "arc:2023/bcxcchamp/U20 Men", "date": "2023-10-14", "race": "BC Athletics Cross Country Championships", "event": "U20 Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1625.2, "name_raw": "Sikich, James", "team": "UBC Thunderbirds", "source_url": null, "venue": "Surrey, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 1105 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 26:34.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "calgary:17461", "name": "Ethan Meyer", "place": 15, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.34, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 55.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13387", "name": "Ryerson Stockton-Thomas", "place": 16, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.17, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 18.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "gap_s": -17.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16357", "name": "Ben Higham", "place": 18, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.14, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 21.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13365", "name": "James Doughty", "place": 19, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.34, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 30.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "gap_s": -77.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.385110001343274, "race_score": 7.385110001343274, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 11, "uninformative_place_high": 52, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8069", "key": "jacob|webster", "name": "Jacob Webster", "team_id": "victoria", "team": "University of Victoria", "team_short": "Victoria", "profile_url": "https://govikesgo.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=8069", "roster_url": "https://govikesgo.com/sports/mens-cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 4, "team_selection_order": 4, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 6, "place_low": 4, "place_high": 28, "win_probability": 0.00735, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "tfrrs:2026/28610/Men 8000", "date": "2026-10-09", "race": "2026 Bill Dellinger Invitational", "event": "Men 8000", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1518.6, "name_raw": "Jacob Webster", "team": "U. of Victoria", "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28610/2026_Bill_Dellinger_Invitational", "venue": "Pine Ridge Golf Course, Springfield, OR", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact name/alias and explicit university team", "age_days": 14 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "tfrrs:2026/28610/Men 8000", "date": "2026-10-09", "race": "2026 Bill Dellinger Invitational", "event": "Men 8000", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1518.6, "name_raw": "Jacob Webster", "team": "U. of Victoria", "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28610/2026_Bill_Dellinger_Invitational", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact name/alias and explicit university team", "age_days": 14 }, { "event_id": "slt:2026/spiritrun/8K - Open", "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K - Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1581.0, "name_raw": "WEBSTER, Jacob", "team": "UVIC", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 26 }, { "event_id": "alive:2025/usports/8 km - Masculin", "date": "2025-11-08", "race": "U SPORTS Cross Country Championships 2025", "event": "8 km - Masculin", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1598.0, "name_raw": "Jacob Webster", "team": "Victoria Vikes", "source_url": null, "venue": "Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 349 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1614.3, "name_raw": "Jacob Webster", "team": "Victoria Vikes", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 }, { "event_id": "slt:2025/spiritrun/8K-Open", "date": "2025-09-28", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K-Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1438.0, "name_raw": "WEBSTER, Jacob", "team": "UVIC", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/spiritrun/event/8K-Open", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 390 }, { "event_id": "racestats:2025/tc10k/TC10K", "date": "2025-04-27", "race": "TC10K", "event": "TC10K", "surface": "road", "distance_km": 10.0, "time_s": 2018.0, "name_raw": "Jacob Webster", "team": null, "source_url": null, "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 544 }, { "event_id": "slt:2024/usports/Men", "date": "2024-11-09", "race": "U SPORTS Cross-Country Championships", "event": "Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1491.0, "name_raw": "WEBSTER, Jacob", "team": "VICTORIA VIKES", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2024/usports/event/Men", "venue": "Kelowna, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 713 }, { "event_id": "uofa:2024/canwestxc/8K - Men", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2024", "event": "8K - Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1574.731, "name_raw": "Jacob Webster", "team": "Victoria Vikes", "source_url": null, "venue": "Stoney Creek Centre, Camrose, AB", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 }, { "event_id": "slt:2024/spiritrun/8K-Open", "date": "2024-09-22", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K-Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1588.0, "name_raw": "WEBSTER, Jacob", "team": "UVIC", "source_url": null, "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 761 }, { "event_id": "smx:2023/usports/Men 8k (University)", "date": "2023-11-12", "race": "U SPORTS Cross Country Championships 2023", "event": "Men 8k (University)", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1597.9, "name_raw": "Jacob Webster", "team": "Victoria Vikes", "source_url": "https://live.sportmadesimple.com/meets/28794/events/xc/1031952", "venue": "Thames Valley Golf Club, London, ON", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 1076 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": { "profile_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/56702850", "strava_id": "56702850", "identity_status": "inferred_strongest_available_match", "identity_confidence": "medium-low", "identity_basis": { "status": "inferred_strongest_available_match", "confidence": "medium-low", "confidence_is": "Qualitative evidence assessment; not a calibrated probability.", "strava_id": "56702850", "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/56702850", "basis": { "display_name": "Jacob Webster", "location": " Victoria, British Columbia, Canada", "clubs": [ { "owner_id": "56702850", "scope": "profile-clubs", "name": "Trades De France 2026", "url": "https://www.strava.com/clubs/1526496" } ], "bio": null }, "alternatives": [], "selection_rule": "Explicit corresponding XC/track club or bio, then matching locale, then visible running history; no selection by forecast error." }, "capture_complete": false, "recent28_km": null, "previous56_km": null, "logged_weekly_km28": null, "run_days28": null, "runs28": null, "longest28_km": null, "latest_visible_run": null, "weeks": [ { "start": "2026-09-14", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-21", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-09-21", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-28", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-09-28", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-05", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-05", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-12", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-12", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-19", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] }, { "start": "2026-10-19", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "partial": true, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": null, "runs": null, "run_days": null, "urls": [] } ], "observation_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "sessions": [], "limitation": "Visible uploaded running only; missing uploads, private activities and unrecorded training remain unknown. Empty calendar bins do not establish rest or injury.", "window_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "capture_fresh": true, "calendar_capture_complete": false, "collection_status": "fresh" }, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: 2026 Bill Dellinger Invitational on 2026-10-09 (8 km, 25:18.6). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "victoria:8074", "name": "Daniel Damian", "place": 4, "estimated_gap_percent": 1.59, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-09", "race": "2026 Bill Dellinger Invitational", "gap_s": 16.8, "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28610/2026_Bill_Dellinger_Invitational", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "regina:12428", "name": "Ian Teichler", "place": 5, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.92, "head_to_head": [] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8067", "name": "Jack Screen", "place": 7, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.36, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-09", "race": "2026 Bill Dellinger Invitational", "gap_s": -11.2, "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28610/2026_Bill_Dellinger_Invitational", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "gap_s": -4.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "regina:12425", "name": "Brett MacLean", "place": 8, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.57, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.355597007783261, "race_score": 7.355597007783261, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 4, "uninformative_place_high": 28, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8077", "key": "hayden|woodrow", "name": "Hayden Woodrow", "team_id": "victoria", "team": "University of Victoria", "team_short": "Victoria", "profile_url": "https://govikesgo.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=8077", "roster_url": "https://govikesgo.com/sports/mens-cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 12, "team_selection_order": 12, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 23, "place_low": 14, "place_high": 60, "win_probability": 0.0001, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1601.0, "name_raw": "WOODROW, Hayden", "team": "VICTORIA VIKES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1601.0, "name_raw": "WOODROW, Hayden", "team": "VICTORIA VIKES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "slt:2026/spiritrun/8K - Open", "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K - Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1614.0, "name_raw": "WOODROW, Hayden", "team": "UVIC", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 26 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1647.7, "name_raw": "Hayden Woodrow", "team": "Victoria Vikes", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 }, { "event_id": "slt:2025/spiritrun/8K-Open", "date": "2025-09-28", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K-Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1447.0, "name_raw": "WOODROW, Hayden", "team": "UVIC", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/spiritrun/event/8K-Open", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 390 }, { "event_id": "slt:2024/usports/Men", "date": "2024-11-09", "race": "U SPORTS Cross-Country Championships", "event": "Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1473.0, "name_raw": "WOODROW, Hayden", "team": "VICTORIA VIKES", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2024/usports/event/Men", "venue": "Kelowna, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 713 }, { "event_id": "uofa:2024/canwestxc/8K - Men", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2024", "event": "8K - Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1614.245, "name_raw": "Hayden Woodrow", "team": "Victoria Vikes", "source_url": null, "venue": "Stoney Creek Centre, Camrose, AB", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 }, { "event_id": "slt:2024/spiritrun/8K-Open", "date": "2024-09-22", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K-Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1593.0, "name_raw": "WOODROW, Hayden", "team": "UVIC", "source_url": null, "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 761 }, { "event_id": "smx:2023/usports/Men 8k (University)", "date": "2023-11-12", "race": "U SPORTS Cross Country Championships 2023", "event": "Men 8k (University)", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1590.7, "name_raw": "Hayden Woodrow", "team": "Victoria Vikes", "source_url": "https://live.sportmadesimple.com/meets/28794/events/xc/1031952", "venue": "Thames Valley Golf Club, London, ON", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 1076 }, { "event_id": "arc:2023/bcxcchamp/Senior Men", "date": "2023-10-14", "race": "BC Athletics Cross Country Championships", "event": "Senior Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1533.7, "name_raw": "Woodrow, Hayden", "team": "Victoria Vikes", "source_url": null, "venue": "Surrey, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 1105 } ], "personal_bests": [], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": null, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 26:41.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Recent training is unknown in the collected sources; no deficit, injury or rest is inferred." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "manitoba:6835", "name": "Jonah Leppelmann", "place": 21, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.54, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 15.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8076", "name": "Brendan O'Brien", "place": 22, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.27, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 12.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "gap_s": -6.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "ubc:13385", "name": "Kouken Narbett", "place": 24, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.06, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 28.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "gap_s": -40.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6595", "name": "Jayvin Crosschild", "place": 25, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.08, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 23.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.3946245235485115, "race_score": 7.3946245235485115, "sigma": 0.025, "uninformative_place_low": 14, "uninformative_place_high": 60, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } }, { "roster_id": "victoria:8070", "key": "mathias|yuzdepski", "name": "Mathias Yuzdepski", "team_id": "victoria", "team": "University of Victoria", "team_short": "Victoria", "profile_url": "https://govikesgo.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=8070", "roster_url": "https://govikesgo.com/sports/mens-cross-country/roster", "identity_status": "inferred", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": "One literal-name candidate with recent school evidence and no recorded gender conflict; reviewable automatic link.", "identity_alternatives": null, "identity_source_url": null, "selected": true, "team_fitness_rank": 14, "team_selection_order": 14, "forecast_status": "supported", "unknown_reason": null, "place": 38, "place_low": 21, "place_high": 74, "win_probability": 0.0, "basis": { "kind": "current_xc", "mark": { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1651.0, "name_raw": "YUZDEPSKI, Mathias", "team": "VICTORIA VIKES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 } }, "uncertainty": "Nominal 80% model range across this full roster; not independently calibrated.", "race_results": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/ubcfarmfest/Mens 8K", "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "event": "Mens 8K", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1651.0, "name_raw": "YUZDEPSKI, Mathias", "team": "VICTORIA VIKES", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 13 }, { "event_id": "slt:2026/spiritrun/8K - Open", "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K - Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1613.0, "name_raw": "YUZDEPSKI, Mathias", "team": "UVIC", "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": "unique exact canonical name or reviewed alias", "age_days": 26 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "race": "Canada West XC Championships 2025", "event": "Men 8k", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1683.7, "name_raw": "Mathias Yuzdepski", "team": "Victoria Vikes", "source_url": "https://oceanathleticsresults.dreamhosters.com/2025/CanWest/AllResults.htm", "venue": "Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 363 }, { "event_id": "slt:2025/spiritrun/8K-Open", "date": "2025-09-28", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K-Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1445.0, "name_raw": "YUZDEPSKI, Mathias", "team": "UVIC", "source_url": "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2025/spiritrun/event/8K-Open", "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 390 }, { "event_id": "arc:2024/bcxcchamp/Senior Men", "date": "2024-10-26", "race": "BC Athletics Cross Country Championships", "event": "Senior Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1604.99, "name_raw": "Yuzdepski, Mathias", "team": "Victoria Endurance Track Club", "source_url": null, "venue": "Vernon, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 727 }, { "event_id": "slt:2024/spiritrun/8K-Open", "date": "2024-09-22", "race": "Vancouver Spirit Run", "event": "8K-Open", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1689.0, "name_raw": "YUZDEPSKI, Mathias", "team": "VETC", "source_url": null, "venue": "Vancouver, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 761 }, { "event_id": "arc:2023/bcxcchamp/Senior Men", "date": "2023-10-14", "race": "BC Athletics Cross Country Championships", "event": "Senior Men", "surface": "xc", "distance_km": 8.0, "time_s": 1621.2, "name_raw": "Yuzdepski, Mathias", "team": "Victoria Endurance Track Club", "source_url": null, "venue": "Surrey, BC", "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 1105 } ], "personal_bests": [ { "event_id": "anet:2026/meet-626078/Mens Seeded 1 Mile", "date": "2026-01-30", "race": "2026 UW Invite / Mile City", "event": "Mens Seeded 1 Mile", "surface": "track", "distance_km": 1.609, "time_s": 265.96, "name_raw": "Mathias Yuzdepski", "team": "Victoria (B.C.)", "source_url": "https://www.athletic.net/TrackAndField/meet/626078/results/m/5/1mile", "venue": null, "identity_inferred": null, "identity_basis": null, "age_days": 266 } ], "pb_note": "Best marks in collected evidence, not an exhaustive certified lifetime inventory.", "training": { "profile_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/25194539", "strava_id": "25194539", "identity_status": "inferred_strongest_available_match", "identity_confidence": "high", "identity_basis": { "status": "inferred_strongest_available_match", "confidence": "high", "confidence_is": "Qualitative evidence assessment; not a calibrated probability.", "strava_id": "25194539", "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/25194539", "basis": { "display_name": "Mathias Yuzdepski", "location": " Saskatoon, SK", "clubs": [ { "owner_id": "25194539", "scope": "profile-clubs", "name": "UVic Vikes Track and XC", "url": "https://www.strava.com/clubs/605158" }, { "owner_id": "25194539", "scope": "profile-clubs", "name": "New Balance Run Club", "url": "https://www.strava.com/clubs/231696" }, { "owner_id": "25194539", "scope": "profile-clubs", "name": "On", "url": "https://www.strava.com/clubs/226387" }, { "owner_id": "25194539", "scope": "profile-clubs", "name": "Run to the Sun", "url": "https://www.strava.com/clubs/656351" }, { "owner_id": "25194539", "scope": "profile-clubs", "name": "Prairie Run Crew", "url": "https://www.strava.com/clubs/1088644" }, { "owner_id": "25194539", "scope": "profile-clubs", "name": "BCW Cycling", "url": "https://www.strava.com/clubs/130958" }, { "owner_id": "25194539", "scope": "profile-clubs", "name": "UVic Cycling Club", "url": "https://www.strava.com/clubs/1223520" }, { "owner_id": "25194539", "scope": "profile-clubs", "name": "Vikes Rec Cycling Club", "url": "https://www.strava.com/clubs/844627" }, { "owner_id": "25194539", "scope": "profile-clubs", "name": "Garmin", "url": "https://www.strava.com/clubs/1400421" } ], "bio": null }, "alternatives": [], "selection_rule": "Explicit corresponding XC/track club or bio, then matching locale, then visible running history; no selection by forecast error." }, "capture_complete": false, "recent28_km": 194.45, "previous56_km": 234.94, "logged_weekly_km28": 48.6, "run_days28": 17, "runs28": 19, "longest28_km": 18.11, "latest_visible_run": "2026-10-22", "weeks": [ { "start": "2026-09-14", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-21", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 56.28, "runs": 4, "run_days": 4, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20193421708", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20219193321", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20246343762", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20259212330" ] }, { "start": "2026-09-21", "end_exclusive": "2026-09-28", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 65.81, "runs": 9, "run_days": 7, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20270515190", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20289816453", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20303208516", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20313928424", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20329918108", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20343419833", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20356968182", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20356968248", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20357172337" ] }, { "start": "2026-09-28", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-05", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 69.5, "runs": 5, "run_days": 5, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20386092089", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20397719994", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20410296720", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20426089412", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20452041729" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-05", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-12", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 15.84, "runs": 3, "run_days": 3, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20507818539", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20520147250", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20533009977" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-12", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-19", "partial": false, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 53.76, "runs": 4, "run_days": 4, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20575344332", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20615140128", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20624266085", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20638694152" ] }, { "start": "2026-10-19", "end_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "partial": true, "calendar_captured": true, "logged_km": 23.95, "runs": 2, "run_days": 2, "urls": [ "https://www.strava.com/activities/20669408055", "https://www.strava.com/activities/20691532395" ] } ], "observation_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "sessions": [], "limitation": "Visible uploaded running only; missing uploads, private activities and unrecorded training remain unknown. Empty calendar bins do not establish rest or injury.", "window_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-10-23", "capture_fresh": true, "calendar_capture_complete": false, "collection_status": "fresh" }, "justification": [ "Recent XC evidence: UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships on 2026-10-10 (8 km, 27:31.0). 2 qualifying current result(s) enter the estimate.", "Recent races have a 35-day half-life. Shared runners estimate event offsets; historical PBs do not override current XC results.", "Visible running averages 48.6 km/week in the current 28-day window. Calendar coverage or source freshness is incomplete, so no volume trend is applied." ], "comparisons": [ { "roster_id": "regina:12432", "name": "William Barnes", "place": 36, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.69, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 52.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "alberta:16361", "name": "Carson Young", "place": 37, "estimated_gap_percent": 0.59, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 51.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "saskatchewan:6594", "name": "Troy Campbell", "place": 39, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.13, "head_to_head": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "UBC Farm Fest XC Race & Pre-Canada West Championships", "gap_s": 41.0, "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "distance_km": 8.0 } ] }, { "roster_id": "calgary:17469", "name": "Niklas Scherer", "place": 40, "estimated_gap_percent": -0.19, "head_to_head": [] } ], "change_evidence": [ "A fresh race against comparable runners can replace weak or stale evidence.", "More complete observed training and explicit measured reps with effort/recovery may change the bounded training context.", "XC terrain and conditions vary. No measured conversion to one specific route is claimed." ], "model": { "score": 7.411798248355698, "race_score": 7.411798248355698, "sigma": 0.026813038529885702, "uninformative_place_low": 21, "uninformative_place_high": 74, "training_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_log_adjustment": 0.0, "workout_inputs": [] } } ], "teams": [ { "id": "ubc", "name": "UBC", "rostered": 18, "selected": 18 }, { "id": "alberta", "name": "Alberta", "rostered": 10, "selected": 10 }, { "id": "calgary", "name": "Calgary", "rostered": 7, "selected": 7 }, { "id": "saskatchewan", "name": "Saskatchewan", "rostered": 12, "selected": 12 }, { "id": "manitoba", "name": "Manitoba", "rostered": 11, "selected": 11 }, { "id": "regina", "name": "Regina", "rostered": 12, "selected": 12 }, { "id": "ubc-okanagan", "name": "UBC Okanagan", "rostered": 11, "selected": 11 }, { "id": "victoria", "name": "Victoria", "rostered": 20, "selected": 20 } ], "field": [ "ubc:13366", "victoria:8053", "victoria:8045", "victoria:8074", "regina:12428", "victoria:8069", "victoria:8067", "regina:12425", "manitoba:6831", "victoria:8051", "victoria:8048", "victoria:8071", "regina:12427", "victoria:8072", "calgary:17461", "ubc:13387", "victoria:8098", "alberta:16357", "ubc:13365", "manitoba:6834", "manitoba:6835", "victoria:8076", "victoria:8077", "ubc:13385", "saskatchewan:6595", "ubc:13386", "saskatchewan:6596", "calgary:17455", "saskatchewan:6600", "regina:12421", "manitoba:6830", "victoria:8055", "saskatchewan:6609", "ubc-okanagan:5110", "regina:12422", "regina:12432", "alberta:16361", "victoria:8070", "saskatchewan:6594", "calgary:17469", "manitoba:6837", "ubc:13384", "alberta:16371", "ubc:13374", "saskatchewan:6615", "alberta:16370", "ubc:13363", "victoria:8075", "saskatchewan:6598", "calgary:17458", "manitoba:6833", "saskatchewan:6607", "victoria:8052", "ubc:13370", "ubc:13361", "victoria:8073", "ubc:13362", "calgary:17464", "victoria:8060", "regina:12426", "ubc:13379", "alberta:16355", "ubc-okanagan:5109", "ubc-okanagan:5108", "ubc:13382", "ubc:13371", "manitoba:6836", "saskatchewan:6603", "alberta:16367", "saskatchewan:6610", "ubc-okanagan:5111", "regina:12436", "ubc-okanagan:5115", "alberta:16359", "calgary:17456", "ubc-okanagan:5116", "calgary:17463", "ubc-okanagan:5105", "saskatchewan:6601", "alberta:16360", "manitoba:6838", "ubc-okanagan:5113", "saskatchewan:6613", "regina:12435", "manitoba:6829", "regina:12433", "manitoba:6832", "alberta:16368", "alberta:16369", "manitoba:6828", "regina:12434", "regina:12423", "ubc:13378", "ubc:13380", "ubc:13375", "ubc:13372", "ubc-okanagan:5114", "ubc-okanagan:5106", "ubc-okanagan:5107", "victoria:8056", "victoria:8062" ], "field_assumption": "All 101 rostered men are included. Supported current-fitness estimates come first; unresolved athletes remain visible as Unknown without a position.", "evaluation": { "schema": "canwest-ranking-evaluation-v1", "model_id": "canwest-form-v4", "protocol_sha256": "0f3f6eb9da7ac38ab8b502584b0fc5cd7104681e2c72395c6ec3f78320db1e08", "implementation_sha256": "74d2d3571c7043adab1c0c0ef90e7286a12e3e95713fb5b3c90de8a217754065", "broad": { "label": "Chronological event-date replay; previously exposed development races", "lead_days": 8, "fields": [ { "event_id": "smx:2023/usports/Men 8k (University)", "date": "2023-11-12", "source_rows": 158, "eligible_finishers": 158, "prior_xc": 12 }, { "event_id": "uofa:2024/canwestxc/8K - Men", "date": "2024-10-26", "source_rows": 85, "eligible_finishers": 85, "prior_xc": 51 }, { "event_id": "rseq:2025/250927/M", "date": "2025-09-27", "source_rows": 151, "eligible_finishers": 144, "prior_xc": 36 }, { "event_id": "oa:2025/canwestxc/Men 8k", "date": "2025-10-25", "source_rows": 78, "eligible_finishers": 78, "prior_xc": 65 }, { "event_id": "alive:2025/usports/8 km - 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"mean_place_error": 0.0, "equal_field_place_error": 0.0 }, "race_graph": { "rows": 2, "fields": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/bcxcchamp/Senior", "rows": 2, "pairs": 1, "pairwise_accuracy": 1.0, "mean_place_error": 0.0 } ], "pairs": 1, "pairwise_accuracy": 1.0, "mean_place_error": 0.0, "equal_field_place_error": 0.0 }, "plus_volume": { "rows": 2, "fields": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/bcxcchamp/Senior", "rows": 2, "pairs": 1, "pairwise_accuracy": 1.0, "mean_place_error": 0.0 } ], "pairs": 1, "pairwise_accuracy": 1.0, "mean_place_error": 0.0, "equal_field_place_error": 0.0 }, "plus_workouts": { "rows": 2, "fields": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/bcxcchamp/Senior", "rows": 2, "pairs": 1, "pairwise_accuracy": 1.0, "mean_place_error": 0.0 } ], "pairs": 1, "pairwise_accuracy": 1.0, "mean_place_error": 0.0, "equal_field_place_error": 0.0 }, "plus_both": { "rows": 2, "fields": [ { "event_id": "slt:2026/bcxcchamp/Senior", "rows": 2, "pairs": 1, "pairwise_accuracy": 1.0, "mean_place_error": 0.0 } ], "pairs": 1, "pairwise_accuracy": 1.0, "mean_place_error": 0.0, "equal_field_place_error": 0.0 } }, "sources": [ { "path": "data/archive/2026-10-13-senior-men-forecast/pages/farmfest2026.txt", "sha256": "b9e2bf8b1153e00d2ab7dbb3463a416475a48917df8284c478cdd971f7d8648d", "source_rows": 68 }, { "path": "data/archive/2026-10-13-senior-men-forecast/pages/spirit2026.txt", "sha256": "fbdd94d1ddabd7581c548727fe1072fe5267def9c55f4a96f9554bb0c7f9e056", "source_rows": 65 }, { "path": "data/archive/2026-10-13-senior-men-forecast/research_notes/Senior men startlist preview/strava_a.md", "sha256": "c353e82920322bfc5e856c190fe652141e3d5297ffd6e7d8fe237d53ed0a5feb" }, { "path": "data/archive/2026-10-13-senior-men-forecast/research_notes/Senior men startlist preview/strava_b.md", "sha256": "473a5ee5707bb9a9789a6c48ba1c44cca090d455fe472a8ce20b6fe514a7abfd" } ], "availability": "Race rows and owner-bound workouts come from preserved Oct13 text/payloads documented by contemporaneous collection notes. This is stronger than filtering activity dates, but the collection date is an archive-note claim, not a server publication timestamp.", "limitation": "Two small local club/university age-category fields, not a national or CanWest validation. Training support is sparse; workout heuristics are not learned effects. Relative errors on the supported subset do not establish transfer to the championship." }, "definitions": { "pairwise_accuracy": "Fraction of unequal-time finisher pairs placed in correct order; predicted ties receive half credit.", "mean_place_error": "Mean absolute position error after ranking the same comparison cohort. Excluded nonfinishers and uncovered cohorts are counted separately.", "baseline": "Latest earlier XC result, 8km distance normalized with exponent1.06, no course/training adjustment. Where no earlier XC exists, full-cohort comparison uses the identical candidate background/field prior.", "workouts": "Explicit repetition distance/time plus self-reported effort. Recovery increases the race-equivalent penalty. Unknown recovery caps effect at0.5%; known recovery cap1.5%. Full-run averages never become split pace.", "volume": "Within-athlete ratio of logged km/day, coefficient -0.008 and cap±0.8%. Current inputs use28/56day windows if complete; archived experiment uses its two actually captured7day windows." }, "display_policy": "No current XC or a nominal80%range spanning at least two-thirds of a field of8+ =>unknown. Supported athletes are ranked; unknowns remain in the ledger and are listed after predictions without a finishing-position claim. Selective metrics compare the same supported cohort and are not full-field accuracy.", "conclusion": "No independent accuracy or training-benefit claim follows from this replay. Unknown/abstained cases remain counted. Raw-score diagnostics include latent estimates that the site now withholds from ranking; inspect supported coverage as well as errors.", "ledger_file": "evaluation-ledger.json", "reserved_old_targets_evaluated": false }, "parameters": { "distance_exponent": 1.06, "current_window_days": 100, "recency_half_life_days": 35, "athlete_prior_weight": 0.01, "event_offset_prior_weight": 0.05, "pb_xc_log_penalty": 0.04, "training_trend_coefficient": -0.008, "max_volume_log_change": 0.008, "workout_blend": 0.2, "max_workout_log_change": 0.015, "unknown_recovery_max_log_change": 0.005, "short_pb_relevance_distance_km": 5.0, "pb_age_selection_days": 730.0, "unknown_range_fraction": 0.6666666666666666, "unknown_range_min_field": 8 }, "freshness": { "status": "partial", "sources": 364, "attention_sources": 211, "status_counts": { "bootstrap": 38, "unsupported": 2, "retained_archive": 16, "fresh": 137, "needs_distance_review": 14, "needs_event_review": 2, "failed": 8, "bounded": 2, "identity_unbound": 64, "not_attempted": 66, "retained_recent": 7, "complete": 1, "discovery_only": 7 }, "source_status": [ { "source_id": "strava:110900575:bootstrap", "status": "bootstrap", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:41:18.292180+00:00", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:41:18.292180+00:00", "message": "Preserved baseline evidence; 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this snapshot has not recaptured the source." }, { "source_id": "strava:87639084:bootstrap", "status": "bootstrap", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:41:55.376394+00:00", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:41:55.376394+00:00", "message": "Preserved baseline evidence; this snapshot has not recaptured the source." }, { "source_id": "strava:67207375:bootstrap", "status": "bootstrap", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:41:57.730131+00:00", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:41:57.730131+00:00", "message": "Preserved baseline evidence; this snapshot has not recaptured the source." }, { "source_id": "strava:120641150:bootstrap", "status": "bootstrap", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:01.725744+00:00", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:01.725744+00:00", "message": "Preserved baseline evidence; this snapshot has not recaptured the source." }, { "source_id": "strava:71424655:bootstrap", "status": "bootstrap", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:04.650149+00:00", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:04.650149+00:00", "message": "Preserved baseline evidence; this snapshot has not recaptured the source." }, { "source_id": "strava:1971039313:bootstrap", "status": "bootstrap", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:06.024917+00:00", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:06.024917+00:00", "message": "Preserved baseline evidence; this snapshot has not recaptured the source." }, { "source_id": "strava:128874234:bootstrap", "status": "bootstrap", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:10.103754+00:00", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:10.103754+00:00", "message": "Preserved baseline evidence; this snapshot has not recaptured the source." }, { "source_id": "strava:147297648:bootstrap", "status": "bootstrap", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:13.278405+00:00", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:13.278405+00:00", "message": "Preserved baseline evidence; this snapshot has not recaptured the source." }, { "source_id": "strava:123734843:bootstrap", "status": "bootstrap", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:22.489068+00:00", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:22.489068+00:00", "message": "Preserved baseline evidence; this snapshot has not recaptured the source." }, { "source_id": "strava:63671505:bootstrap", "status": "bootstrap", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:26.426575+00:00", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:26.426575+00:00", "message": "Preserved baseline evidence; this snapshot has not recaptured the source." }, { "source_id": "strava:40984427:bootstrap", "status": "bootstrap", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:34.327802+00:00", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:34.327802+00:00", "message": "Preserved baseline evidence; this snapshot has not recaptured the source." }, { "source_id": "strava:49202812:bootstrap", "status": "bootstrap", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:35.867908+00:00", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:35.867908+00:00", "message": "Preserved baseline evidence; this snapshot has not recaptured the source." }, { "source_id": "strava:54685374:bootstrap", "status": "bootstrap", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:36.543609+00:00", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:36.543609+00:00", "message": "Preserved baseline evidence; this snapshot has not recaptured the source." }, { "source_id": "strava:184389062:bootstrap", "status": "bootstrap", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:36.923651+00:00", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:36.923651+00:00", "message": "Preserved baseline evidence; this snapshot has not recaptured the source." }, { "source_id": "strava:123199420:bootstrap", "status": "bootstrap", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:37.491228+00:00", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:37.491228+00:00", "message": "Preserved baseline evidence; this snapshot has not recaptured the source." }, { "source_id": "strava:118142308:bootstrap", "status": "bootstrap", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:38.860825+00:00", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:38.860825+00:00", "message": "Preserved baseline evidence; this snapshot has not recaptured the source." }, { "source_id": "strava:93626383:bootstrap", "status": "bootstrap", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:46.420895+00:00", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:46.420895+00:00", "message": "Preserved baseline evidence; this snapshot has not recaptured the source." }, { "source_id": "strava:163070575:bootstrap", "status": "bootstrap", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:50.921398+00:00", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:50.921398+00:00", "message": "Preserved baseline evidence; this snapshot has not recaptured the source." }, { "source_id": "strava:192202999:bootstrap", "status": "bootstrap", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:51.883515+00:00", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:51.883515+00:00", "message": "Preserved baseline evidence; this snapshot has not recaptured the source." }, { "source_id": "strava:108684239:bootstrap", "status": "bootstrap", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:56.312060+00:00", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:56.312060+00:00", "message": "Preserved baseline evidence; this snapshot has not recaptured the source." }, { "source_id": "strava:47590360:bootstrap", "status": "bootstrap", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:58.227245+00:00", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:42:58.227245+00:00", "message": "Preserved baseline evidence; this snapshot has not recaptured the source." }, { "source_id": "strava:128104087:bootstrap", "status": "bootstrap", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:43:00.475092+00:00", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:43:00.475092+00:00", "message": "Preserved baseline evidence; this snapshot has not recaptured the source." }, { "source_id": "strava:100748950:bootstrap", "status": "bootstrap", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:43:04.846178+00:00", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:43:04.846178+00:00", "message": "Preserved baseline evidence; this snapshot has not recaptured the source." }, { "source_id": "strava:62157282:bootstrap", "status": "bootstrap", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:43:07.969223+00:00", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:43:07.969223+00:00", "message": "Preserved baseline evidence; this snapshot has not recaptured the source." }, { "source_id": "strava:105226901:bootstrap", "status": "bootstrap", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:43:19.750761+00:00", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:43:19.750761+00:00", "message": "Preserved baseline evidence; this snapshot has not recaptured the source." }, { "source_id": "strava:56702850:bootstrap", "status": "bootstrap", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:43:21.336291+00:00", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:43:21.336291+00:00", "message": "Preserved baseline evidence; this snapshot has not recaptured the source." }, { "source_id": "strava:25194539:bootstrap", "status": "bootstrap", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:43:23.801143+00:00", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:43:23.801143+00:00", "message": "Preserved baseline evidence; this snapshot has not recaptured the source." }, { "source_id": "strava:186667407:bootstrap", "status": "bootstrap", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:43:26.564496+00:00", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:43:26.564496+00:00", "message": "Preserved baseline evidence; this snapshot has not recaptured the source." }, { "source_id": "strava:57134970:bootstrap", "status": "bootstrap", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:43:27.319560+00:00", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:43:27.319560+00:00", "message": "Preserved baseline evidence; this snapshot has not recaptured the source." }, { "source_id": "results:bootstrap", "status": "bootstrap", "captured_at": null, "last_success_at": null, "message": "Audited historical results; daily provider discovery has not yet run." }, { "source_id": "results:coverage:athletic_net", "status": "unsupported", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:14.485347+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:14.485347+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No daily results discovery adapter in this collector." }, { "source_id": "results:coverage:other_results", "status": "unsupported", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:14.485352+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:14.485352+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Other timing providers and unposted races are not automatically discovered." }, { "source_id": "results:startline:event:/en/races/2024/usports/event/Men", "status": "retained_archive", "attempted_at": null, "captured_at": null, "last_success_at": null, "message": "Known event older than 100 days retained as archive; not recaptured today.", "event_count": 20 }, { "source_id": "results:startline:event:/en/races/2025/spiritrun/event/8K-Open", "status": "retained_archive", "attempted_at": null, "captured_at": null, "last_success_at": null, "message": "Known event older than 100 days retained as archive; not recaptured today.", "event_count": 29 }, { "source_id": "results:startline:event:/en/races/2025/bcxcchamp/event/Senior", "status": "retained_archive", "attempted_at": null, "captured_at": null, "last_success_at": null, "message": "Known event older than 100 days retained as archive; not recaptured today.", "event_count": 3 }, { "source_id": "results:startline:event:/en/races/2025/bcxcchamp/event/U20", "status": "retained_archive", "attempted_at": null, "captured_at": null, "last_success_at": null, "message": "Known event older than 100 days retained as archive; not recaptured today.", "event_count": 13 }, { "source_id": "results:startline:index:2026", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:19.863Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:19.863Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:19.863Z", "message": "All-province index recaptured; recent XC/Canada West candidates selected.", "evidence": { "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0001-startline-index-2026-240ced0f4d979d9c.txt", "source_sha256": "240ced0f4d979d9c6606583c3f2ef4c3242067bca7ff0fbee3400564b47c67e6", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:19.863Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" }, "index_count": 157, "candidate_count": 4 }, { "source_id": "results:startline:event:/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/Senior", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:21.803Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:21.803Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:21.803Z", "message": "Complete recognized event pages recaptured; corrections replace old event atomically.", "pages": 1, "evidence": [ { "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/Senior", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0006-startline-event-782b9097ed442a74.txt", "source_sha256": "782b9097ed442a74e9a2d109ae82224e4280ec04f893a072c12cbaacb7c97900", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:21.803Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } ] }, { "source_id": "results:startline:event:/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/U20", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:22.026Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:22.026Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:22.026Z", "message": "Complete recognized event pages recaptured; corrections replace old event atomically.", "pages": 1, "evidence": [ { "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/U20", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0007-startline-event-9b144f70e57e0073.txt", "source_sha256": "9b144f70e57e0073c5f65b7a2dd0677573ed50cc1ec7fd180d23a94e3f24c128", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:22.026Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } ] }, { "source_id": "results:startline:event:/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:22.232Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:22.232Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:22.232Z", "message": "Complete recognized event pages recaptured; corrections replace old event atomically.", "pages": 1, "evidence": [ { "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Open", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0008-startline-event-952c8f6dd71a32cd.txt", "source_sha256": "952c8f6dd71a32cdc35a30ac9e9fb1035efcc8084a1fc60c841885b95d0c5bdb", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:22.232Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } ] }, { "source_id": "results:startline:event:/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:29.049Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:29.049Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:29.049Z", "message": "Complete recognized event pages recaptured; corrections replace old event atomically.", "pages": 1, "evidence": [ { "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0009-startline-event-b545bf0f2814b1f3.txt", "source_sha256": "b545bf0f2814b1f352f3337f4d054b444bb0a044e5792fd0b64483a1b20c5f68", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:29.049Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } ] }, { "source_id": "results:startline:event:/en/races/2026/victoriamarathon/event/5K", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:30.446Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:30.446Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:30.446Z", "message": "Complete recognized event pages recaptured; corrections replace old event atomically.", "pages": 3, "evidence": [ { "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/victoriamarathon/event/5K", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0010-startline-event-c1194f3f8e926a46.txt", "source_sha256": "c1194f3f8e926a46cc8e7118fd21eda0a0457120e5858b924aaab37f88fea6de", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:29.551Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" }, { "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/victoriamarathon/event/5K/page/2", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0011-startline-event-563cad07c7654f32.txt", "source_sha256": "563cad07c7654f32ce2bd81bf9a1f45bb1dd6268904a38c98ca1076468c62fcf", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:30.086Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" }, { "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/victoriamarathon/event/5K/page/3", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0012-startline-event-3c3e2f4e9edf25e7.txt", "source_sha256": "3c3e2f4e9edf25e78199dcc5db526aa8a50e8bdf1fa2d268188eccac895d8da6", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:30.446Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } ] }, { "source_id": "results:startline:event:/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/4K", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:30.696Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:30.696Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:30.696Z", "message": "Complete recognized event pages recaptured; corrections replace old event atomically.", "pages": 1, "evidence": [ { "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/4K", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0013-startline-event-0af671e8bdb68f94.txt", "source_sha256": "0af671e8bdb68f9432a644a399c14dfd307de9511dbd2effd2f1f6055efe92a0", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:30.696Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } ] }, { "source_id": "results:startline:event:/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/6K", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:30.919Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:30.919Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:30.919Z", "message": "Complete recognized event pages recaptured; corrections replace old event atomically.", "pages": 1, "evidence": [ { "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/6K", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0014-startline-event-675e8e78a67ec2bd.txt", "source_sha256": "675e8e78a67ec2bd8ea6fe9ec690228f63d1127edb0d1d59bf785619cac29003", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:30.919Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } ] }, { "source_id": "results:startline:event:/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/70+", "status": "needs_distance_review", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:31.175847+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:31.175847+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Fresh rows captured but event distance is not explicit; not admitted to history.", "evidence": [ { "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/70+", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0015-startline-event-b96ecc802f5da9a9.txt", "source_sha256": "b96ecc802f5da9a9bde25697db31928f2d71aba1ced7364fb5cdb4c1e611f6ee", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:31.145Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } ] }, { "source_id": "results:startline:event:/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/Masters", "status": "needs_distance_review", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:31.384183+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:31.384183+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Fresh rows captured but event distance is not explicit; not admitted to history.", "evidence": [ { "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/Masters", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0016-startline-event-dd105762c40d6c3b.txt", "source_sha256": "dd105762c40d6c3bae5a90b3e8a801238c7dd012efa887970d245b08911a10b9", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:31.358Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } ] }, { "source_id": "results:startline:event:/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/PARA", "status": "needs_distance_review", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:38.092316+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:38.092316+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Fresh rows captured but event distance is not explicit; not admitted to history.", "evidence": [ { "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/PARA", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0017-startline-event-15b606373f552ea9.txt", "source_sha256": "15b606373f552ea9e87ff715c95d7c3dc0679861459ce577cb9b68c1cc652e37", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:38.052Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } ] }, { "source_id": "results:startline:event:/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/RASCALS", "status": "needs_distance_review", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:38.287427+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:38.287427+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Fresh rows captured but event distance is not explicit; not admitted to history.", "evidence": [ { "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/RASCALS", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0018-startline-event-cd257e1d885352ec.txt", "source_sha256": "cd257e1d885352ecc9c3f2470d06386c8c3932adace8591d8aeed5d8b6cae6fd", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:38.269Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } ] }, { "source_id": "results:startline:event:/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/U11", "status": "needs_distance_review", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:38.497541+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:38.497541+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Fresh rows captured but event distance is not explicit; not admitted to history.", "evidence": [ { "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/U11", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0019-startline-event-4b2c753ce2a4fe3f.txt", "source_sha256": "4b2c753ce2a4fe3f7913b21501513781b40a031f3d382914e3a0e6d29d0b2f13", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:38.477Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } ] }, { "source_id": "results:startline:event:/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/U13", "status": "needs_distance_review", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:38.727014+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:38.727014+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Fresh rows captured but event distance is not explicit; not admitted to history.", "evidence": [ { "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/U13", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0020-startline-event-e80ecf6e87957e33.txt", "source_sha256": "e80ecf6e87957e33ed12d10ab45dea519782556dc91b168f2102f4f179b04c19", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:38.683Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } ] }, { "source_id": "results:startline:event:/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/U18", "status": "needs_distance_review", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:38.986002+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:38.986002+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Fresh rows captured but event distance is not explicit; not admitted to history.", "evidence": [ { "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/U18", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0021-startline-event-9d5b7194ba728660.txt", "source_sha256": "9d5b7194ba7286609137eae811f4e394d79dacfed9eb77313f7ab4aa9e4c4329", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:38.959Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } ] }, { "source_id": "results:startline:event:/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/Bantam", "status": "needs_distance_review", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:39.216374+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:39.216374+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Fresh rows captured but event distance is not explicit; not admitted to history.", "evidence": [ { "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/Bantam", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0022-startline-event-d1ab81cd352ffca9.txt", "source_sha256": "d1ab81cd352ffca96e3fd1134093add2afa5b329c0ad9a442487349104121fd9", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:39.181Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } ] }, { "source_id": "results:startline:event:/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/Family%20Fun%20Run", "status": "needs_distance_review", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:39.418481+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:39.418481+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Fresh rows captured but event distance is not explicit; not admitted to history.", "evidence": [ { "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/Family%20Fun%20Run", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0023-startline-event-da071a0a748e1c06.txt", "source_sha256": "da071a0a748e1c061c8b08f2ebaa16a0e3bb76408b5a5606e9c882b961ec4de8", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:39.393Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } ] }, { "source_id": "results:startline:event:/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/PeeWee", "status": "needs_distance_review", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:39.692594+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:39.692594+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Fresh rows captured but event distance is not explicit; not admitted to history.", "evidence": [ { "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/PeeWee", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0024-startline-event-f7644f07ab1a62f7.txt", "source_sha256": "f7644f07ab1a62f761f17d26bceb3e82588a005205439b08fb64438039d768f3", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:39.639Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } ] }, { "source_id": "results:startline:event:/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/Tyke", "status": "needs_distance_review", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:46.335063+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:46.335063+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Fresh rows captured but event distance is not explicit; not admitted to history.", "evidence": [ { "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/Tyke", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0025-startline-event-cd0de3e96db217ed.txt", "source_sha256": "cd0de3e96db217ed264ba6398619438aafdd80fa697506986198d8df1ab83765", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:46.280Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } ] }, { "source_id": "results:startline:event:/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/U18", "status": "needs_distance_review", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:46.585083+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:46.585083+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Fresh rows captured but event distance is not explicit; not admitted to history.", "evidence": [ { "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/U18", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0026-startline-event-11b8e6d895583c7e.txt", "source_sha256": "11b8e6d895583c7eaacaa46db37280a22495eb37bf365f8d949f17a1dd60732e", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:46.537Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } ] }, { "source_id": "results:startline:event:/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/U20", "status": "needs_distance_review", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:46.857421+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:46.857421+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Fresh rows captured but event distance is not explicit; not admitted to history.", "evidence": [ { "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/U20", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0027-startline-event-8fb07fd700453d66.txt", "source_sha256": "8fb07fd700453d667e03a0772c5dd168080f01953c24891a47973ea18e73d2aa", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:46.843Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } ] }, { "source_id": "results:startline:event:/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/U9", "status": "needs_distance_review", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:47.111840+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:47.111840+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Fresh rows captured but event distance is not explicit; not admitted to history.", "evidence": [ { "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/U9", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0028-startline-event-91464d335ef48fef.txt", "source_sha256": "91464d335ef48fefc69cba6334c2dc8ee3adaaf63113fe28a099665676c7b275", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:47.059Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } ] }, { "source_id": "results:startline:event:/en/races/2026/stgeorges/event/5K", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:47.858Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:47.858Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:47.858Z", "message": "Complete recognized event pages recaptured; corrections replace old event atomically.", "pages": 2, "evidence": [ { "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/stgeorges/event/5K", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0029-startline-event-24c2bdd623f53112.txt", "source_sha256": "24c2bdd623f53112659e3f5e4cc72d51ae564167d817a6de02a34e495b395008", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:47.507Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" }, { "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/stgeorges/event/5K/page/2", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0030-startline-event-c8d8cac963749cf6.txt", "source_sha256": "c8d8cac963749cf6db7a6cf6dcf3400a160d26d41990ab7b68452938c35e10c0", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:47.858Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } ] }, { "source_id": "results:startline:event:/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/6K", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:48.104Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:48.104Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:48.104Z", "message": "Complete recognized event pages recaptured; corrections replace old event atomically.", "pages": 1, "evidence": [ { "source_url": "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/6K", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0031-startline-event-c9c02f3df5fb7c49.txt", "source_sha256": "c9c02f3df5fb7c49b62de8832a215340de06f6e4f5f5d1d54a010b84d7b5c3a9", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:48.104Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } ] }, { "source_id": "results:tfrrs:meet:/results/xc/25687/WWU_Bill_Roe_Classic_2025", "status": "retained_archive", "attempted_at": null, "captured_at": null, "last_success_at": null, "message": "Known meet older than 100 days retained; not recaptured today." }, { "source_id": "results:tfrrs:meet:/results/xc/27790/WWU_Bill_Roe_Classic_2026", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:49.066Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:49.066Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:49.066Z", "message": "Complete source XC individual tables recaptured; matching events replaced atomically.", "evidence": { "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/27790/WWU_Bill_Roe_Classic_2026", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0032-tfrrs-meet-0ede4cf12d8b571c.txt", "source_sha256": "0ede4cf12d8b571c7b2079906ba8a083ccef6b5c776ab4f1cff343af7a0bbe89", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:49.066Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" }, "admitted_events": 1 }, { "source_id": "results:tfrrs:meet:/results/xc/28554/PLU_Invitational_", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:55.956Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:55.956Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:55.956Z", "message": "Complete source XC individual tables recaptured; matching events replaced atomically.", "evidence": { "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28554/PLU_Invitational_", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0033-tfrrs-meet-9cf0882249afa267.txt", "source_sha256": "9cf0882249afa267c1b768ea251fb8195a86ecb73ada07e84f32a48b1d431723", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:55.956Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" }, "admitted_events": 2 }, { "source_id": "results:tfrrs:meet:/results/xc/28610/2026_Bill_Dellinger_Invitational", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:56.529Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:56.529Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:56.529Z", "message": "Complete source XC individual tables recaptured; matching events replaced atomically.", "evidence": { "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28610/2026_Bill_Dellinger_Invitational", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0034-tfrrs-meet-6109baa0020c5466.txt", "source_sha256": "6109baa0020c5466aa5ae3e12eb8d6c5ddc590b8a19acbef72a98daeecd5dc29", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:56.529Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" }, "admitted_events": 1 }, { "source_id": "results:tfrrs:meet:/results/xc/28657/St_Olaf_Invitational:section:mens8k", "status": "needs_event_review", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:56.946874+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:56.946874+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Fresh individual section did not uniquely match known event metadata; old event retained." }, { "source_id": "results:tfrrs:meet:/results/xc/28657/St_Olaf_Invitational", "status": "needs_event_review", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:56.746Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:56.746Z", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No eligible unambiguous men section admitted.", "evidence": { "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/28657/St_Olaf_Invitational", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0035-tfrrs-meet-ddd70e4712553b7b.txt", "source_sha256": "ddd70e4712553b7beda9857674d4b2ffb7d4105ac6635e37ed8fc5177f0a74be", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:56.746Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" }, "admitted_events": 0 }, { "source_id": "results:tfrrs:team:/teams/xc/BC_college_m_Trinity_Western.html", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:57.157Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:57.157Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:57.157Z", "message": "Observed roster-team XC results page recaptured.", "evidence": { "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/teams/xc/BC_college_m_Trinity_Western.html", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0036-tfrrs-team-882a94face531dac.txt", "source_sha256": "882a94face531dac1ab0fcf3bd4268408b7be158153329e82d6fa91ff111249f", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:57.157Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" }, "linked_meets": 14 }, { "source_id": "results:tfrrs:team:/teams/xc/BC_college_m_U_of_Victoria.html", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:57.407Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:57.407Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:57.407Z", "message": "Observed roster-team XC results page recaptured.", "evidence": { "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/teams/xc/BC_college_m_U_of_Victoria.html", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0037-tfrrs-team-f6da31847312af06.txt", "source_sha256": "f6da31847312af0653bc6dbb737a0b7b76e917bc9749aa5db70da914c9894a1d", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:57.407Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" }, "linked_meets": 7 }, { "source_id": "results:tfrrs:team:/teams/xc/MB_college_m_U_of_Manitoba.html", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:57.611Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:57.611Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:57.611Z", "message": "Observed roster-team XC results page recaptured.", "evidence": { "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/teams/xc/MB_college_m_U_of_Manitoba.html", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0038-tfrrs-team-f2df084be1634290.txt", "source_sha256": "f2df084be1634290f7e0e0e9bf7413b246df8da15157def4f9d03d29ec5317e2", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:57.611Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" }, "linked_meets": 12 }, { "source_id": "results:tfrrs:meet:/results/xc/10592/UND_Ron_Pynn_Classic_Open", "status": "failed", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:57.831948+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:57.831948+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "XC meet response unavailable/unrecognized; prior complete event retained." }, { "source_id": "results:tfrrs:meet:/results/xc/10762/ROY_GRIAK_INVITATIONAL", "status": "retained_archive", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:58.242275+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:58.242275+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Observed meet outside the recent completed-results window; not admitted as current.", "evidence": { "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/10762/ROY_GRIAK_INVITATIONAL", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0039-tfrrs-meet-6244c74726234ecf.txt", "source_sha256": "6244c74726234ecff544bd792d000b38d04d932e27fd434c724d25ff841b1678", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:33:58.136Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } }, { "source_id": "results:tfrrs:meet:/results/xc/11220/43rd_Charles_Bowles_Willamette_Invitational", "status": "retained_archive", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:34:04.556665+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:34:04.556665+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Observed meet outside the recent completed-results window; not admitted as current.", "evidence": { "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/11220/43rd_Charles_Bowles_Willamette_Invitational", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0040-tfrrs-meet-c70c1e59e020f7fd.txt", "source_sha256": "c70c1e59e020f7fd4b38fa3b59ee2f09d0441de490ae44270323b9727b156dbd", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:34:04.474Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } }, { "source_id": "results:tfrrs:meet:/results/xc/11897/Ron_Pynn_Classic_Cross_Country_Meet", "status": "retained_archive", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:34:04.813675+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:34:04.813675+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Observed meet outside the recent completed-results window; not admitted as current.", "evidence": { "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/11897/Ron_Pynn_Classic_Cross_Country_Meet", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0041-tfrrs-meet-f720a0c1e3516652.txt", "source_sha256": "f720a0c1e351665230e02ccee0c89400489f6b573b2821f12fa0e4545b1a2ead", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:34:04.779Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } }, { "source_id": "results:tfrrs:meet:/results/xc/12864/ROY_GRIAK_INVITATIONAL", "status": "retained_archive", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:34:05.448988+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:34:05.448988+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Observed meet outside the recent completed-results window; not admitted as current.", "evidence": { "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/12864/ROY_GRIAK_INVITATIONAL", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0042-tfrrs-meet-f9b4efa8ac5923dd.txt", "source_sha256": "f9b4efa8ac5923dd8bda0a03d274edf80972ba06857b037e7a9decc0221de141", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:34:05.315Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } }, { "source_id": "results:tfrrs:meet:/results/xc/14532/Ron_Pynn_Classic", "status": "retained_archive", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:34:05.707385+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:34:05.707385+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Observed meet outside the recent completed-results window; not admitted as current.", "evidence": { "source_url": "https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/14532/Ron_Pynn_Classic", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0043-tfrrs-meet-e67ef005b2cd3039.txt", "source_sha256": "e67ef005b2cd30390cf765b3353e5e76e49291506eb2890b6b2560edce9adcd8", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:34:05.653Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } }, { "source_id": "results:tfrrs:meet:/results/xc/14588/St_Olaf_Invitational", "status": "retained_archive", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:34:05.979754+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:34:05.979754+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Observed meet outside the recent completed-results window; 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logging completeness unknown.", "months_attempted": 2, "months_fresh": 2 }, { "source_id": "strava:25194539:month:202609", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:12.236Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:12.236Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:12.236Z", "message": "Owner-bound visible month recaptured.", "evidence": { "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/25194539/interval?interval=202609&interval_type=month&chart_type=miles&year_offset=0", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0118-strava-25194539-202609-7e95e9286d0a896e.txt", "source_sha256": "7e95e9286d0a896e8cb36934ed825a81c22a9422c6e1a3061959dec46c674e86", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:12.236Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } }, { "source_id": "strava:25194539:month:202610", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:19.075Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:19.075Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:19.075Z", "message": "Owner-bound visible month recaptured.", "evidence": { "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/25194539/interval?interval=202610&interval_type=month&chart_type=miles&year_offset=0", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0119-strava-25194539-202610-49545329bbdbb61d.txt", "source_sha256": "49545329bbdbb61d591e80d8ac59f62c837e4aef80fd5d111f479eed27ce7c46", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:19.075Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:victoria:8056", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:37.670364+00:00", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:37.670364+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:37.670364+00:00", "message": "Visible interval recapture finished; logging completeness unknown.", "months_attempted": 2, "months_fresh": 2 }, { "source_id": "strava:186667407:month:202609", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:31.737Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:31.737Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:31.737Z", "message": "Owner-bound visible month recaptured.", "evidence": { "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/186667407/interval?interval=202609&interval_type=month&chart_type=miles&year_offset=0", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0120-strava-186667407-202609-e9eb5a27062f3cfc.txt", "source_sha256": "e9eb5a27062f3cfc613dbe8a6e2965fef0b3894ada1a271542fd6988144aaa96", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:31.737Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } }, { "source_id": "strava:186667407:month:202610", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:37.263Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:37.263Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:37.263Z", "message": "Owner-bound visible month recaptured.", "evidence": { "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/186667407/interval?interval=202610&interval_type=month&chart_type=miles&year_offset=0", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0121-strava-186667407-202610-013bf91b41b2b099.txt", "source_sha256": "013bf91b41b2b0990d65bd7dfe8de32560cccab38c814ecc786bd44cb45bda39", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:37.263Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:victoria:8062", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.438866+00:00", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.438866+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.438866+00:00", "message": "Visible interval recapture finished; logging completeness unknown.", "months_attempted": 2, "months_fresh": 2 }, { "source_id": "strava:57134970:month:202609", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:40.797Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:40.797Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:40.797Z", "message": "Owner-bound visible month recaptured.", "evidence": { "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/57134970/interval?interval=202609&interval_type=month&chart_type=miles&year_offset=0", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0122-strava-57134970-202609-83a8f187e6b055a8.txt", "source_sha256": "83a8f187e6b055a8987f935b5824485a6b55aa872bd23f4075f861357068ed90", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:40.797Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } }, { "source_id": "strava:57134970:month:202610", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.390Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.390Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.390Z", "message": "Owner-bound visible month recaptured.", "evidence": { "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/athletes/57134970/interval?interval=202610&interval_type=month&chart_type=miles&year_offset=0", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0123-strava-57134970-202610-658afab4a71db1cd.txt", "source_sha256": "658afab4a71db1cdcf426983bd9ce25f43aabc3e010a853c346d20f76503ad2f", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.390Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "source_response_body" } }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:saskatchewan:6603", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.449242+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.449242+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:calgary:17456", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.449260+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.449260+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:saskatchewan:6609", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450009+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450009+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:ubc-okanagan:5109", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450017+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450017+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:calgary:17464", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450020+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450020+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:ubc-okanagan:5113", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450022+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450022+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:victoria:8077", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450024+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450024+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:victoria:8055", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450026+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450026+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:calgary:17458", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450028+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450028+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:calgary:17463", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450029+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450029+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:saskatchewan:6601", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450031+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450031+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:ubc-okanagan:5111", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450033+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450033+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:alberta:16359", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450034+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450034+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:alberta:16370", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450041+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450041+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:alberta:16367", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450579+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450579+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:manitoba:6833", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450586+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450586+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:victoria:8075", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450592+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450592+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:alberta:16369", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450595+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450595+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:saskatchewan:6596", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450597+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450597+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:victoria:8071", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450605+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450605+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:victoria:8060", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450638+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450638+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:ubc-okanagan:5105", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450642+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450642+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:saskatchewan:6595", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450646+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450646+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:manitoba:6836", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450652+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450652+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:regina:12434", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450655+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450655+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:alberta:16360", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450657+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450657+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:manitoba:6837", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450659+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450659+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:regina:12432", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450661+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450661+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:alberta:16371", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450663+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450663+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:manitoba:6830", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450665+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450665+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:calgary:17461", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450672+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450672+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:alberta:16368", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450674+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450674+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:regina:12433", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450816+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.450816+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:saskatchewan:6594", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451124+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451124+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:ubc-okanagan:5114", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451126+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451126+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:manitoba:6834", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451129+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451129+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:calgary:17469", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451131+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451131+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:manitoba:6832", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451133+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451133+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:saskatchewan:6613", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451135+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451135+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:saskatchewan:6600", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451137+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451137+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:manitoba:6838", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451139+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451139+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:regina:12422", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451141+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451141+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:alberta:16361", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451507+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451507+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:ubc:13379", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451511+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451511+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:ubc:13380", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451513+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451513+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:manitoba:6828", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451515+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451515+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:victoria:8076", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451518+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451518+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:alberta:16355", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451520+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451520+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:regina:12426", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451522+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451522+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:ubc:13378", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451524+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451524+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:victoria:8052", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451526+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451526+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:victoria:8098", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451528+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451528+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:saskatchewan:6598", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451530+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451530+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:regina:12423", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451532+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451532+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:ubc-okanagan:5115", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451535+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451535+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:manitoba:6835", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451551+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451551+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:saskatchewan:6610", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451553+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451553+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:alberta:16357", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451555+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451555+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:regina:12435", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451557+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451557+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:saskatchewan:6607", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451559+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451559+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:ubc-okanagan:5108", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451561+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451561+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:saskatchewan:6615", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451563+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451563+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:calgary:17455", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451564+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451564+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:profile:ubc:13375", "status": "identity_unbound", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451566+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:40:47.451566+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "No selected owner-bound Strava profile; training remains unknown." }, { "source_id": "strava:59119821:workout:20707750586", "status": "failed", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:41:22.394525+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:41:22.394525+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Lap source unavailable, unrecognized or deadline reached; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:105226901:workout:20706708596", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:41:25.640Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:41:25.640Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:41:25.640Z", "message": "Recorded laps captured; role classification remains qualitative.", "evidence": { "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20706708596/laps", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0124-laps-105226901-20706708596-6532262cfa8bc088.txt", "source_sha256": "6532262cfa8bc088859c4121757b3fb899f50592889d831451525c5a44c4b18f", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:41:25.640Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "sanitized_lap_dom" } }, { "source_id": "strava:105226901:workout:20706708593", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:41:27.955Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:41:27.955Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:41:27.955Z", "message": "Recorded laps captured; role classification remains qualitative.", "evidence": { "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20706708593/laps", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0125-laps-105226901-20706708593-a8f920d173fe4d34.txt", "source_sha256": "a8f920d173fe4d34a221db899a28e47b3b1be775e42de352f7db31824445c68c", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:41:27.955Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "sanitized_lap_dom" } }, { "source_id": "strava:123734843:workout:20706607239", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:41:30.111Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:41:30.111Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:41:30.111Z", "message": "Recorded laps captured; role classification remains qualitative.", "evidence": { "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20706607239/laps", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0126-laps-123734843-20706607239-51fc4883aa21fd78.txt", "source_sha256": "51fc4883aa21fd78654a5023c0d33484f44fd0c5f74389abe1af55d7e3d5f64f", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:41:30.111Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "sanitized_lap_dom" } }, { "source_id": "strava:87639084:workout:20706073081", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:41:38.527Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:41:38.527Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:41:38.527Z", "message": "Recorded laps captured; role classification remains qualitative.", "evidence": { "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20706073081/laps", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0127-laps-87639084-20706073081-eab3b591d7dc2020.txt", "source_sha256": "eab3b591d7dc202056da70c7bb0bcfb7e8d5aea4e26b07490a5344590f1bcd6f", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:41:38.527Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "sanitized_lap_dom" } }, { "source_id": "strava:108684239:workout:20705715519", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:41:40.883Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:41:40.883Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:41:40.883Z", "message": "Recorded laps captured; role classification remains qualitative.", "evidence": { "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20705715519/laps", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0128-laps-108684239-20705715519-c42fe7871d11cf5b.txt", "source_sha256": "c42fe7871d11cf5bab214967c861f81790ef01830b34dfa7e6d6c2638de7f1ca", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:41:40.883Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "sanitized_lap_dom" } }, { "source_id": "strava:119966646:workout:20704155867", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:41:42.739Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:41:42.739Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:41:42.739Z", "message": "Recorded laps captured; role classification remains qualitative.", "evidence": { "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20704155867/laps", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0129-laps-119966646-20704155867-388008654e25f6db.txt", "source_sha256": "388008654e25f6dbfb0d0d0f0a895f6d8f2ea9783edac1738cba48dea4eeed90", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:41:42.739Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "sanitized_lap_dom" } }, { "source_id": "strava:110900575:workout:20702410390", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:41:45.209Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:41:45.209Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:41:45.209Z", "message": "Recorded laps captured; role classification remains qualitative.", "evidence": { "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20702410390/laps", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0130-laps-110900575-20702410390-cf4e3eca781ba406.txt", "source_sha256": "cf4e3eca781ba4064dbbd2e7ff5416cb492316f6d9ee0165092f61c37101b2ce", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:41:45.209Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "sanitized_lap_dom" } }, { "source_id": "strava:105285606:workout:20702130614", "status": "failed", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:42:17.601019+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:42:17.601019+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Lap source unavailable, unrecognized or deadline reached; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:100748950:workout:20701511750", "status": "failed", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:42:51.420491+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:42:51.420491+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Lap source unavailable, unrecognized or deadline reached; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:116131192:workout:20696983244", "status": "failed", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:43:25.746916+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:43:25.746916+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Lap source unavailable, unrecognized or deadline reached; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:87639084:workout:20696181351", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:43:29.537Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:43:29.537Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:43:29.537Z", "message": "Recorded laps captured; role classification remains qualitative.", "evidence": { "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20696181351/laps", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0131-laps-87639084-20696181351-06d875b1369281ba.txt", "source_sha256": "06d875b1369281ba1edffccceace40f2629a854666ff8ff20faf4116aaac2c4b", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:43:29.537Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "sanitized_lap_dom" } }, { "source_id": "strava:59119821:workout:20695892909", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:43:38.718Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:43:38.718Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:43:38.718Z", "message": "Recorded laps captured; role classification remains qualitative.", "evidence": { "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20695892909/laps", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0132-laps-59119821-20695892909-2e2c4913ccaa5ab3.txt", "source_sha256": "2e2c4913ccaa5ab34f754a4a5304e63cd1e9d5a4c8b12dd2ff99088ee7ff7f42", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:43:38.718Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "sanitized_lap_dom" } }, { "source_id": "strava:67207375:workout:20695872675", "status": "failed", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:44:10.675852+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:44:10.675852+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Lap source unavailable, unrecognized or deadline reached; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:163070575:workout:20695689742", "status": "failed", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:01.545552+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:01.545552+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Lap source unavailable, unrecognized or deadline reached; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:163070575:workout:20695686841", "status": "fresh", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.484Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.484Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.484Z", "message": "Recorded laps captured; role classification remains qualitative.", "evidence": { "source_url": "https://www.strava.com/activities/20695686841/laps", "source_path": "/Users/randyren/Library/Application Support/RaceForecast/runs/2026-10-24T063313647Z-d5960d67e8fe/raw/20261024T063314Z-547085b11e2f/raw/0133-laps-163070575-20695686841-5da3a7f17e629ea8.txt", "source_sha256": "5da3a7f17e629ea8f3e494fdc952f4a4df90d71ffae48cb64341ee4e5ed1388d", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.484Z", "status": 200, "capture_kind": "sanitized_lap_dom" } }, { "source_id": "strava:110900575:workout:20695570355", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.583922+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.583922+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:105285606:workout:20695537992", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.594094+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.594094+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:38249163:workout:20695529476", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.597041+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.597041+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:108684239:workout:20695258590", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.609278+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.609278+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:120641150:workout:20695166009", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.612467+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.612467+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:71424655:workout:20694743642", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.620515+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.620515+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:119966646:workout:20692337239", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.628975+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.628975+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:25194539:workout:20691532395", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.637740+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.637740+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:116131192:workout:20696983252", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.645746+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.645746+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:186667407:workout:20683160053", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.652620+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.652620+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:38249163:workout:20682350821", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.657398+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.657398+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:40984427:workout:20681126267", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.675343+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.675343+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:123734843:workout:20680849165", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.683550+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.683550+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:128874234:workout:20680772979", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.686397+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.686397+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:100748950:workout:20679089166", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.694647+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.694647+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:47590360:workout:20678519132", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.699466+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.699466+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:63671505:workout:20676297451", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.703343+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.703343+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:63671505:workout:20669606294", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.703365+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.703365+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:25194539:workout:20669408055", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.703378+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.703378+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:1971039313:workout:20669397085", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.703763+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.703763+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:71424655:workout:20669342816", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.704670+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.704670+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:128874234:workout:20668966720", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.704688+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.704688+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:120641150:workout:20668849130", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.706472+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.706472+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:59119821:workout:20668752792", "status": "retained_recent", "attempted_at": null, "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:31:55.606Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:31:55.606Z", "message": "Unchanged posted session; exact lap evidence retained within seven-day recapture window." }, { "source_id": "strava:110900575:workout:20668739930", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.717383+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.717383+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:87639084:workout:20668681000", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.719936+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.719936+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:40984427:workout:20668669267", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.720180+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.720180+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:62157282:workout:20668566383", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.728746+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.728746+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:186667407:workout:20668522313", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.736754+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.736754+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:147297648:workout:20667973409", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.744736+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.744736+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:147297648:workout:20654944866", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.744754+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.744754+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:67207375:workout:20671005711", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.745479+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.745479+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:70574021:workout:20641833013", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.766192+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.766192+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:93626383:workout:20624688610", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.770424+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.770424+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:93626383:workout:20624522672", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.771393+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.771393+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:105226901:workout:20615267765", "status": "retained_recent", "attempted_at": null, "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:35:15.721Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:35:15.721Z", "message": "Unchanged posted session; exact lap evidence retained within seven-day recapture window." }, { "source_id": "strava:59119821:workout:20609151330", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.778327+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.778327+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:120641150:workout:20603095682", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.780197+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.780197+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:108684239:workout:20602970740", "status": "retained_recent", "attempted_at": null, "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:31:10.213Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:31:10.213Z", "message": "Unchanged posted session; exact lap evidence retained within seven-day recapture window." }, { "source_id": "strava:110900575:workout:20602695439", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.783441+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.783441+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:120641150:workout:20597164922", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.784609+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.784609+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:87639084:workout:20576630180", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.785665+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.785665+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:59119821:workout:20575832879", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.786264+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.786264+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:110900575:workout:20575611239", "status": "retained_recent", "attempted_at": null, "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:32:02.236Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:32:02.236Z", "message": "Unchanged posted session; exact lap evidence retained within seven-day recapture window." }, { "source_id": "strava:62157282:workout:20575575902", "status": "retained_recent", "attempted_at": null, "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:32:50.891Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:32:50.891Z", "message": "Unchanged posted session; exact lap evidence retained within seven-day recapture window." }, { "source_id": "strava:47590360:workout:20557825107", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.786783+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.786783+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:70574021:workout:20549026667", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.786796+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.786796+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:110900575:workout:20532986182", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.787330+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.787330+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:1971039313:workout:20520574899", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.787743+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.787743+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:110900575:workout:20509779111", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.789021+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.789021+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:108684239:workout:20506351930", "status": "retained_recent", "attempted_at": null, "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:31:16.405Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:31:16.405Z", "message": "Unchanged posted session; exact lap evidence retained within seven-day recapture window." }, { "source_id": "strava:59119821:workout:20482800247", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.791528+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.791528+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:71424655:workout:20482784703", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.791679+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.791679+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:108684239:workout:20482678664", "status": "retained_recent", "attempted_at": null, "captured_at": "2026-10-24T04:31:23.959Z", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T04:31:23.959Z", "message": "Unchanged posted session; exact lap evidence retained within seven-day recapture window." }, { "source_id": "strava:110900575:workout:20482497046", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.792899+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.792899+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:105226901:workout:20482178350", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.793755+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.793755+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:59119821:workout:20438717287", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.794963+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.794963+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:87639084:workout:20438603480", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.797223+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.797223+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:110900575:workout:20438471588", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.797256+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.797256+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:186667407:workout:20426166272", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.799219+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.799219+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:105226901:workout:20426111865", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.799235+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.799235+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:105226901:workout:20421622360", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.800591+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.800591+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:71424655:workout:20414618275", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.801474+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.801474+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:108684239:workout:20414537900", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.801611+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.801611+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:108684239:workout:20408574195", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.801640+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.801640+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:110900575:workout:20386671153", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.804273+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.804273+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:87639084:workout:20386430398", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.805614+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.805614+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:108684239:workout:20386390884", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.808175+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.808175+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:59119821:workout:20386357081", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.809436+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.809436+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:108684239:workout:20380129661", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.811228+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.811228+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:59119821:workout:20341113339", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.818004+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.818004+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:110900575:workout:20341090570", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.818128+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.818128+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:105226901:workout:20330086522", "status": "not_attempted", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.818165+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.818165+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Workout request budget exhausted; previous evidence retained." }, { "source_id": "strava:workout_coverage", "status": "bounded", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.826147+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.826147+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Explicitly labeled plus two newest runs per fresh profile; other unlabeled sessions may be missed.", "candidate_count": 89, "attempted": 16, "retained_recent": 7, "pending": 66 }, { "source_id": "collector:run", "status": "complete", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.827023+00:00", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:07.827023+00:00", "last_success_at": null, "message": "Collection finished; consult per-source freshness and explicit coverage gaps.", "population_count": 101, "selected_profiles": 37, "profiles_attempted": 37, "raw_capture_count": 133 }, { "source_id": "schedule:ubc", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:11.134Z", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:11.134Z", "status": "discovery_only", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:11.134Z", "source_url": "https://gothunderbirds.ca/sports/cross-country/schedule", "pending_links": [ "https://gothunderbirds.ca/documents/2023/8/31/University_of_British_Columbia_Athletics_Day_Off_Policy_1_.pdf", "https://gothunderbirds.ca/sports/cross-country/schedule", "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/spiritrun/event/8K%20-%20Women/page", "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K", "https://www.startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/bcxcchamp/event/Senior/page" ], "message": "Official schedule recaptured. Links outside parsed Startline/TFRRS adapters require source review; no unparsed performance is inferred." }, { "source_id": "schedule:alberta", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:15.545Z", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:15.545Z", "status": "discovery_only", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:15.545Z", "source_url": "https://bearsandpandas.ca/sports/cross-country/schedule", "pending_links": [ "https://bearsandpandas.ca/documents/2025/8/1/2526_Pocket_Schedule_revised_07_25_3srn.pdf", "https://bearsandpandas.ca/documents/2026/9/26/2026_Dakota_Classic_Men_and_Team_Results.pdf", "https://bearsandpandas.ca/documents/2026/9/26/2026_Dakota_Classic_Women_and_Teams_Results.pdf", "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K/page" ], "message": "Official schedule recaptured. Links outside parsed Startline/TFRRS adapters require source review; no unparsed performance is inferred." }, { "source_id": "schedule:calgary", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:18.003Z", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:18.003Z", "status": "discovery_only", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:18.003Z", "source_url": "https://godinos.com/sports/cross-country/schedule", "pending_links": [ "https://godinos.com/common/controls/adhandler.aspx?ad_id=25&target=https://web.ucalgary.ca/sites/default/files/teams/1/digital-privacy-statement.pdf", "https://godinos.com/documents/2023/6/26/SafeSport_-_Athlete_Pathway__May_2023_.pdf", "https://godinos.com/documents/2026/10/18/Farm_Fest_Combined_Results.pdf", "https://godinos.com/documents/2026/10/18/Grand_Prix_Results_-_Oct17.pdf", "https://godinos.com/documents/2026/9/20/ACAC_Grand_Prix__2_Results.pdf", "https://godinos.com/sports/cross-country/schedule" ], "message": "Official schedule recaptured. Links outside parsed Startline/TFRRS adapters require source review; no unparsed performance is inferred." }, { "source_id": "schedule:saskatchewan", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:20.829Z", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:20.829Z", "status": "discovery_only", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:20.829Z", "source_url": "https://huskies.usask.ca/sports/cross-country/schedule", "pending_links": [ "https://huskies.usask.ca/documents/2018/8/7/xcountryalltime2015.pdf", "https://huskies.usask.ca/documents/2019/5/14/XCCombined.pdf", "https://huskies.usask.ca/documents/2019/9/4/27_19_Huskie_Donor_Guide_v8_2_.pdf", "https://huskies.usask.ca/documents/2023/9/14/Huskie_XC_-_Individual.pdf", "https://huskies.usask.ca/documents/2023/9/14/Huskie_XC_-_Team.pdf", "https://huskies.usask.ca/documents/2026/9/26/2026_Dakota_Classic_Men_and_Team_Results.pdf", "https://huskies.usask.ca/documents/2026/9/26/2026_Dakota_Classic_Women_and_Teams_Results.pdf", "https://huskies.usask.ca/sports/cross-country/schedule", "https://startlinetiming.com/en/races/2026/ubcfarmfest/event/Mens%208K/page" ], "message": "Official schedule recaptured. Links outside parsed Startline/TFRRS adapters require source review; no unparsed performance is inferred." }, { "source_id": "schedule:manitoba", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:24.256Z", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:24.256Z", "status": "discovery_only", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:24.256Z", "source_url": "https://gobisons.ca/sports/cross-country/schedule", "pending_links": [], "message": "Official schedule recaptured. Links outside parsed Startline/TFRRS adapters require source review; no unparsed performance is inferred." }, { "source_id": "schedule:regina", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:27.804Z", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:27.804Z", "status": "discovery_only", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:27.804Z", "source_url": "https://www.reginacougars.com/sports/cross-country/schedule", "pending_links": [ "https://cougarsandrams.com/documents/2021/11/29/Athletics_Strategic_Plan_19_24.pdf" ], "message": "Official schedule recaptured. Links outside parsed Startline/TFRRS adapters require source review; no unparsed performance is inferred." }, { "source_id": "schedule:ubc-okanagan", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:39.861Z", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:39.861Z", "status": "discovery_only", "last_success_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:39.861Z", "source_url": "https://goheat.ca/sports/mens-cross-country/schedule", "pending_links": [ "https://goheat.ca/documents/2025/7/28/UBCO_HEAT_Visitor_Guide_2025-2026_UPDATED.pdf", "https://goheat.ca/documents/2026/7/22/HEAT_SAH2026-FINALv4.pdf", "https://goheat.ca/sports/mens-cross-country/schedule", "https://live.pntfo.com/meets/9262026/events/1" ], "message": "Official schedule recaptured. Links outside parsed Startline/TFRRS adapters require source review; no unparsed performance is inferred." }, { "source_id": "schedule:victoria", "captured_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:47.274Z", "attempted_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:47.274Z", "status": "failed", "source_url": "https://govikesgo.com/sports/mens-cross-country/schedule", "message": "Official schedule unavailable or unrecognized; previous observations retained" } ], "note": "Capture status describes access to collected sources, not complete training or exhaustive race coverage." }, "coverage": { "rostered": 101, "field": 101, "teams": 8, "current_xc": 87, "ranked_field": 87, "unknown_field": 14, "unknown_roster": 14, "training_profiles": 37, "visible_recent_training": 26, "fresh_training_profiles": 37, "inferred_identities": 97 }, "provenance": { "generated_at": "2026-10-24T06:45:58.235645+00:00", "model_sha256": "74d2d3571c7043adab1c0c0ef90e7286a12e3e95713fb5b3c90de8a217754065", "source_hashes": { "data/canwest-site/training-research/research.json": "d2a31179567fa5d81ed26d5ee21898ee621c9d95cfd556653651802e163a36ab", "data/canwest-site/training-refresh/research.json": "da59e91d2f56b728b4e6764b1a0d3a1c9e1abbbb45a8d56e8b2e4816f243d174", "data/canwest-site/training-research/archive-workouts.json": "301ccc0f3d8f0a187b67d8069f722984bfc6142f70a550c3ab3c26e4800bc9f1", "sites/canwest-form/dist/data.json": "0a2ea8b439994f5f66177cc385b849a57e69b34520de9924d2fb01061a57fec1", "data/usports/2026-10-23/training/history/verified-history-27.json": "5f086db96da101004998036eb2f7da28ec271f22fc5b007d80f72bbde57d9680", "sites/canwest-form/dist/evaluation.json": "07855fbb66e3c21d5f98f00f482b628a66517a57b675641219330023f36725dc", "sites/canwest-form/dist/evaluation-ledger.json": "9d0a8e23a79c3cf8490cbee3df7cee074f7d8afa4ab419846c7c52b3007f0aec", "sites/canwest-form/dist/model-inputs.json": "fa7c369ec5cbdf01213de405843011aba08f56401aacb42ae3f3d6863ca94702", "sites/canwest-form/dist/model-protocol.json": "0f3f6eb9da7ac38ab8b502584b0fc5cd7104681e2c72395c6ec3f78320db1e08" }, "historical_evaluation": "Frozen historical protocol; not a validation of this rolling population." } }